• Guo-qun LI , Xiao-feng DUAN , Hai-qing WANG , Hai-ping CHEN , Wen-qian YANG , Rui LI
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3490 -3495.

    Objective Based on the Python platform, the entire process of vector-borne infectious disease mathematical models is expanded to better fit models and evaluate intervention effects, to provide new ideas for grassroots prevention and control, and to open up new perspectives. Methods The SmEmIm-SpEpIpApRp model was fitted using the lmfit library, solved with the solve_ivp function, and sensitivity analysis of key model parameters was performed. The Rt calculation was based on the next generation matrix method, and all results were visually displayed with the help of Matplotlib. Results The results showed that R2=0.98 and RMSE=2.07. Rt was 5.607 in the early stage of the epidemic, and Rtpeak was 8.439 on day 41. The period with Rt>1 lasted 81 days, and q had the highest sensitivity (S=35.435). Under a single intervention, when βmp and βpm<0.01, Rt<1 and the epidemic disappeared. Controlling only γ and q would not eliminate the epidemic. Under comprehensive intervention, Scenario 1 could reduce the cumulative cases by 98.64%, and Rtpeak=0.868. Scenario 2 could reduce the cumulative cases by 87.95%,and Rtpeak=1.988. For Scenario 3, Rtpeak=4.78. Although the increase in Rt was smaller and the change rate was low, the longer duration could increase cumulative cases by 161.47%. Scenario 4 could reduce the cumulative cases by 99.38%, and Rtpeak=0.28. Conclusions The high goodness of fit of the model based on the Python platform verifies the necessity of seasonal dynamic modeling, provides an integrated solution for the prevention and control of vector-borne infectious diseases, expands the practical boundaries of theoretical models, and opens a new perspective for precise prevention and control at the grassroots level.

  • Meng-meng LIU , Jun-yu PAN , Bo-yi LV , Bao-feng LIU , Qiang ZENG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3615 -3619.

    Objective To establish a paper spray mass spectrometry method for the determination of 1-methoxy-2-propanol and 2-methoxypropionic acid as biomarkers of propylene glycol monomethyl ether in urine. Methods The urine sample was dropped onto the chromatographic paper, and a high voltage of 4 kV was applied to the back of the paper. After dissolution in the spray solvent, the sample formed an electrospray at the paper tip under the effect of voltage, which then entered the mass spectrometer for detection. Results The linear ranges of 1-methoxy-2-propanol and 2-methoxypropionic acid were 0.036-46.15 μg/mL and 0.029-54.25 μg/mL, respectively, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.999 6 to 0.999 9. The detection limit (LOD) was between 0.008 8 and 0.011 μg/mL, and the quantification limit(LOQ) was between 0.029 and 0.036 μg/mL. The sample recovery rate ranged from 90.8% to 105.0%, and RSDs ranged from 3.3% to 9.7%. Conclusion This method requires no sample processing, features simplicity, rapidity and high sensitivity, making it suitable for the rapid screening of propylene glycol monomethyl ether in urine.

  • Fu-liang WANG , Yun-kun CUI , Yu e WU
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3596 -3603.

    Objective To investigate the effect of aerobic exercise on blood pressure in patients with resistant hypertension through meta-analysis, aiming to identify more effective intervention strategies and provide reference for the control and treatment of resistant hypertension. Methods A systematic search was performed in CBM, CNKI, WANFANG, VIP, PubMed, OVID,Embase, and Web of Science for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in Chinese or English from inception to March 25, 2025. Two researchers independently conducted study selection and data extraction. Risk of bias was assessed using RoB 2,and statistical analyses were performed with RevMan 5.4. Results A total of 10 studies were included, comprising 532 cases.Meta-analysis showed that aerobic exercise significantly reduced systolic blood pressure (SBP) (SMD=0.77, 95% CI: 0.57-0.96, P<0.000 01), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (SMD=0.83, 95% CI: 0.63-1.02, P<0.000 01), 24-hour SBP (SMD=0.48,95% CI: 0.23-0.73, P=0.000 2), and 24-hour DBP (SMD=0.43, 95% CI: 0.17-0.68, P=0.000 9). Subgroup analyses indicated greater SBP reductions among participants aged≤60 years, with BMI≤28 kg/m2, exercise intensity >60% VO2max, and intervention>12 weeks. DBP improvements were more evident in subgroups with age≤60 years, BMI≤28 kg/m2, intensity ≤60% VO2max, and duration >12 weeks. For 24-hour SBP, larger effects were found in subgroups with age>60 years, BMI≤28 kg/m2, intensity≤60%VO2max, and duration >12 weeks. In contrast, greater 24-hour DBP reductions occurred in participants aged≤60 years, with BMI≤28 kg/m2, intensity >60% VO2max, and duration≤12 weeks. Conclusion Aerobic exercise has a positive effect on reducing blood pressure in patients with resistant hypertension. Differences in participant characteristics and intervention protocols may affect the extent of this effect. The current relevant studies are limited in number and most have some risk of bias. However, the limited quantity and quality of existing studies highlight the need for further high-quality research to confirm and extend these findings.

  • Xiao-yun ZHANG , Ya-jing SUN
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3585 -3589.

    Objective To analyze the fairness and impact mechanisms of the allocation of public health physician resources in China. Methods The fairness of public health physician resource allocation in 31 provinces across the country was set as the outcome variable, and 7 indicators were selected from the government, socio-economic and individual levels as conditional variables, and a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was performed. Results There were large differences in the allocation of public health physician resources in 31 provinces in China. Single factors cannot constitute a necessary condition to affect the fair allocation of public health physician resources. There were 10 paths that affect the fair allocation of public health physician resources, of which 2 paths had high fairness configurations, with an overall consistency of 0.97 and an overall coverage of 0.61. There were 8 paths in low fairness configurations, with an overall consistency of 0.96 and an overall coverage of 0.83. Conclusion Population aggregation is the basic premise for determining the fair allocation of public health physician resources. Financial support and residents’ income are key guarantees to support the fair allocation of public health physician resources. Medical insurance and basic public health service subsidies are complementary support for promoting the fair allocation of public health physician resources. Multi-factor coupling is a systematic mechanism for realizing the fair allocation of public health physician resources.

  • Xian-ting XIA , Wei-ming WANG , Feng XU , Xiao-feng WU , Feng GAO , Hua LIN , Qing WANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3609 -3614.

    Objective To explore the relationship between low grip strength and the occurrence of falling in the elderly. Methods A cohort study was conducted using the China Healh and Retirement Longiudinal Sudy (CHARLS) database, including individuals without a history of falling at the 2011 baseline. Demographic characteristics, chronic disease history, and grip strength information of the subjects were collected. Subjects were grouped based on whether they experienced falling during the follow-up from 2013 to 2020. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between low grip strength and falling occurrence. The causal relationship between low grip strength and falling was assessed using two-sample MR based on the corresponding datasets. Datasets were sourced from the IEUGWAS database. MR analysis was conducted using inverse variance weighting (IVW), MR-Egger regression, weighted median estimation (WME), simple mode,and weighted mode methods. Cochran’s Q test, MR-pleiotropy, and leave-one-out methods were employed to evaluate pleiotropy, sensitivity, and heterogeneity. Results After adjusting for age, gender, marital status, disease status and other related confounding factors, low grip strength was still associated with the occurrence of falling. Compared with the normal grip group, the low grip group had an increased risk of falling (OR=1.29, 95% CI: 1.06-1.56, P=0.01). The results of MR also showed that low grip strength increased the occurrence of falling. Conclusion Low grip strength is associated with falling in the elderly. The elderly with low grip strength have a higher risk of falling.

  • Ya-li ZHANG , Lin MA , Yue SUN , Wei WANG , Xiao-xue WU , Jing-qiu WANG , Xiao-ying CHENG , Xin-li LU
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3637 -3642.

    Objective To evaluate the extent to which clinical doctors in Hebei Province have mastered the knowledge associated with the prevention and control of viral hepatitis C and its influencing factors, and supply a scientific basis to further improve and perfect the prevention and control strategies of hepatitis C. Methods The on-site investigation adopted the "Questionnaire on Hepatitis C Prevention and Treatment Knowledge for Clinical Doctors" devised by the National AIDS Prevention and Control Center. Its components involved demographic traits, fundamental prevention and treatment knowledge, diagnosis and treatment standards, as well as case reporting requirements, and others. Categorical variables were described using proportions and rates.The influencing factors of awareness of hepatitis C knowledge were studied by using the χ2 test and multivariable logistic regression method. Results This survey obtained 2 858 questionnaires in total, and every single one of them was valid. The awareness rate of basic knowledge and professional knowledge was 95.31% (2 724/2 858) and 14.49% (414/2 858), respectively.In terms of basic knowledge content, the correct answer rate for "Hepatitis C can be cured" was the lowest, at 86.28%, while the correct answer rates for other questions were all above 90%. Regarding professional knowledge, 50% (8/16) of the questions had a correct answer rate below 50%. Among these, the question on "Diagnostic basis for diagnosing hepatitis C" had the lowest correct answer rate, at 13.89%. The educational background, department, hospital level and type of clinical doctor, as well as whether they have received hepatitis C knowledge training in the past year, all have an impact on their knowledge of hepatitis C. Doctors with a master’s degree or above had higher knowledge levels than those with a master’s degree or below (OR=2.324, 95% CI:1.706-3.166). Doctors in infectious diseases had higher knowledge levels than those in non-infectious diseases such as internal medicine (OR=0.275, 95% CI: 0.159-0.475). Doctors in tertiary hospitals had higher knowledge levels than those in secondary and lower-level hospitals (OR=1.462, 95% CI: 1.044-2.048). Doctors in provincial hospitals were better than those in county and municipal hospitals (OR=2.869, 95% CI: 1.978-4.161). Doctors who have received prevention and treatment knowledge training in the past year were higher than those who have not received training (OR=3.144, 95% CI: 2.386-4.143). Conclusion While many clinical doctors in Hebei Province have mastered the fundamental knowledge about hepatitis C prevention and treatment quite well, the level of their professional knowledge needs to be improved. Attention should be paid to strengthening the training on diagnosis, treatment and case reporting, etc. At the same time, differentiated training programs should be formulated for different groups to effectively improve the diagnosis and treatment level of clinicians.

  • Chen GONG , Yuan-hua HUANG , Yao-sen NING , Shan-shan HAN , Xiao-lian LUO , Hua-xiang LU , Ai-hu DONG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3632 -3636.

    Objective To analyze the duplicate reporting of hepatitis B in Guangxi from 2014 to 2023, providing data to support future research. Methods Duplicate cases of hepatitis B in Guangxi from 2014 to 2023 were identified by matching combinations of rules, including identity card number, name, sex, date of birth, contact number, and current address of patient. The duplicate reporting rates were calculated. Results A total of 499 965 hepatitis B cases were reported in Guangxi from 2014 to 2023, in which 46 439 cases were reported in duplicate, and the duplicate reporting rate was 9.29%. There was an upward trend in the duplicate reporting rate over the years (χ2trend=6 156.939, P<0.001). The within-year duplicate reporting rate was 1.58%, and the cross-year duplicate reporting rate was 7.70%. The within-year duplicate reporting rate showed an increasing trend (χ2trend=7.320, P=0.007). The duplicate reporting rate of each city ranged from 4.25% to 12.08% (χ2=3 284.620, P<0.001). The duplicate reporting rate increased with age group (χ2trend=675.314, P<0.001). The duplicate reporting rate of hospitals of different levels ranged from 4.69% to 19.13% (χ2=24 388.260, P<0.001), with the highest duplicate reporting rate observed in secondary-level hospitals. After excluding duplicated records, the average annual reported incidence rate of hepatitis B in Guangxi from 2014 to 2023 was 92.60 per 100 000 population. Conclusion The report incidence rate of hepatitis B is overestimated because of the duplicate reporting. A cross-year and cross-area duplicate reporting checking system should be established to reduce the duplicate reporting, and improve the surveillance quality for hepatitis B.

  • Liang MA , Feng-long LIN , Yue LI , Xue-feng WANG , Ju LI , Yu-fen HAN , Feng-quan ZHANG , Jin-yan XI , Ling TAO , Zi-yuan ZHOU , Jia CAO , Guang-hui ZHANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3530 -3536.

    Objective To investigate the effects of spicy diet on male semen quality. Methods This study recruited male volunteers from Chongqing and Puyang, analyzed the impact of spicy diets on male semen quality, and further conducted a stratified analysis by region to verify the stability of the conclusions. Logistic regression evaluated spicy diet’s association with abnormal semen quality (normal/abnormal classification). Results A total of 2 128 subjects were included in the study (1 394 from Puyang and 779 from Chongqing). Linear mixed-effects model analysis revealed that duration of chili consumption was positively correlated with semen volume(β=0.05, 95% CI: 0.01-0.09, P=0.012), sperm concentration (β=1.64, 95% CI:0.35-2.93, P=0.013), total sperm count (β=6.89, 95% CI: 0.89-12.89, P=0.024), progressive motility (β=1.22, 95% CI: 0.75-1.69, P<0.001), VCL (β=0.73, 95% CI: 0.36-1.11, P<0.001), BCF (β=0.24, 95% CI: 0.15-0.32, P<0.001), STR (β=1.31, 95%CI: 0.73-1.90, P<0.001), WOB (β=0.91, 95% CI: 0.22-1.61, P=0.010), and normal morphology rate (β=0.34, 95% CI: 0.18-0.50, P<0.001), while negatively correlated with head defect rate (β=-1.11, 95% CI: -1.54~-0.67, P<0.001) and neck defect rate (β=-1.20, 95% CI: -1.62~-0.77, P<0.001). Weekly frequency of chili consumption showed positive correlations with sperm concentration (β=2.48, 95% CI: 0.05-4.92, P=0.046) and progressive motility (β=1.06, 95% CI: 0.18-1.94, P=0.019). Monthly frequency of chili consumption was positively associated with VSL (β=0.82, 95% CI: 0.32-1.31, P=0.001) and VAP (β=0.85, 95% CI: 0.25-1.46, P=0.006). Both duration and weekly frequency of chili consumption exhibited dose-response protective effects on semen quality, showing progressively decreasing risks of abnormal semen quality with increasing consumption duration and frequency (Ptrend<0.001 and 0.042, respectively). Those who had maintained a spicy diet for more than 3 years had a reduced risk of abnormal semen quality. Conclusion Spicy diet is associated with improved semen quality, with long-term consumption potentially reducing abnormality risk.

  • Ming-yue LIU , Xin-yang CHEN , Xue MA , Meng ZHANG , Xiang-hui XU , Bo-wen GENG , Rui-xi ZHANG , Xiao-ming LI
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3559 -3567.

    Objective To analyze the differences in chronic disease multimorbidity trajectories and influencing factors between middle-aged and elderly agricultural and non-agricultural production operators. Methods Data from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2020 were used. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was applied to fit multimorbidity trajectories for both groups, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify factors influencing the trajectory groups. Results A total of 9 937 participants were included, with 5 010 in the agricultural group and 4 927 in the non-agricultural group. In the agricultural group, the multimorbidity trajectories were classified into three patterns: no-multimorbidity (19.22%, 963 cases), new-onset multimorbidity (56.45%,2 828 cases), and progressive multimorbidity (24.33%, 1 219 cases). In the non-agricultural group, four patterns were identified: no-multimorbidity (18.06%, 890 cases), new-onset multimorbidity (41.10%, 2 025 cases), progressive multimorbidity (33.65%, 1 658 cases), and high-growth multimorbidity (7.18%, 354 cases). Increasing age, obesity, sleep duration ≤6 hours, and poor psychological status significantly increased the risk of multimorbidity in both groups (P<0.05). Among agricultural group, overweight (OR=1.37, 95% CI: 1.14-1.65; OR=2.49, 95% CI: 2.01-3.08) and obesity(OR=2.21, 95%CI: 1.59-3.06; OR=5.58, 95% CI: 3.93-7.92) significantly increased the risks of multimorbidity. In the non-agricultural group, higher education levels reduced the risk of new-onset multimorbidity(OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.60-0.95), and moderate physical activity decreased the risk of high-growth multimorbidity(OR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.52-0.90). Smoking cessation was significantly associated with increased risks of multimorbidity (OR=1.55, 95% CI: 1.04-2.32; OR=2.37, 95% CI: 1.57-3.57; OR=4.02, 95%CI: 2.31-7.00). Conclusion In agricultural populations, the new-onset multimorbidity type is dominant, driven by obesity and insufficient sleep. In non-agricultural populations, the high-growth multimorbidity type is associated with poor psychological status and health deterioration after smoking cessation. It is necessary to strengthen weight and sleep management for agricultural populations and focus on mental health as well as post-cessation monitoring for non-agricultural populations to reduce the risk of multimorbidity.

  • Dong-zhi LI , Jun WANG , Zhen-ji XU , Fan JIANG , Xiao-lei GUO , Zhen-tao FU , Zi-long LU
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(19): 3548 -3552.

    Objective To understand the incidence and mortality trends of uterine cancer in tumor registration areas of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2021, and to provide a basis for the prevention and control of uterine cancer. Methods Data were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Surveillance Database. Crude incidence (mortality) rates and age-standardized rates were calculated using Excel 2010 and R 4.4.2. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Results From 2013 to 2021, the crude incidence rate and the Chinese age-standardized incidence rate of uterine cancer among women in tumor registration areas of Shandong Province increased by 4.08% and 2.85% per year, respectively (crude incidence rate AAPC=4.08%, 95% CI: 2.25%-5.95%, P<0.001; Chinese age-standardized incidence rate AAPC=2.85%, 95% CI: 1.02%-4.72%; All P=0.002). Although there was a decrease in crude mortality rate and Chinese age-standardized mortality rate, the difference was not statistically significant (crude mortality rate AAPC=-1.33%, 95% CI: -4.28%-1.71%, P=0.389; Chinese age-standardized mortality rate AAPC=-2.53%, 95% CI: -5.86%-0.91%, P=0.165). The urban incidence rate and mortality were higher than those in rural areas(χ2=513.53, χ2=64.27, both P<0.01). Both the Chinese age-standardized incidence rate in urban areas and the crude incidence rate in rural areas showed upward trends, with annual increases of 3.05% and 3.90%, respectively. Conclusion From 2013 to 2021, uterine cancer among female residents in Shandong Province has shown an upward trend and is a malignant tumor that women should focus on preventing. Early diagnosis and treatment of high-risk groups for uterine cancer should be emphasized, and etiological exploration and research should be strengthened to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of uterine cancer.

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