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2025 Volume 52 Issue 24  Published: 2025-12-25
    Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances
  • Xin HU , Xiao-yun WU , Rong-jie WEI
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508311
    Objective

    To establish the epidemic thresholds and intensity classification criteria for varicella in Sichuan Province by applying the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), so as to provide a scientific basis for precision prevention and control.

    Methods

    Based on the weekly incidence data of varicella in Sichuan Province from 2014 to 2024, obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, the MEM model was constructed separately for each epidemic season, accounting for its characteristic bimodal peaks (the spring-summer peak from week 8 to week 34 and the autumn-winter peak from week 35 to week 7 of the following year). The optimal parameter (δ) was determined through cross-validation. Model performance was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, and the Youden index.

    Results

    In the autumn-winter model, after excluding data from weeks 35 to 7 of the 2014-2015 season, the model was built based on nine years of historical data (δ=2.9), yielding a sensitivity of 0.837, a specificity of 0.933, and a Youden index of 0.770. In the spring-summer model, after excluding data from weeks 8 to 34 of 2020, the model was constructed using nine years of historical data (δ=2.6), which resulted in a sensitivity of 0.902, a specificity of 0.943, and a Youden index of 0.845.

    Conclusion

    The seasonal stratification approach combined with the MEM epidemic intensity assessment model enables accurate identification of varicella epidemic periods in Sichuan Province, thereby providing a scientific basis for implementing differentiated prevention and control measures based on epidemic intensity levels.

  • Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances
  • Yi-qian WU , Zi-xuan ZHANG , Wen-yu SU , Yu-xin JIANG , Lin-hong LI , Hai-yan LI , Li-hong JI , Zhi-wei DONG , Wen-gui ZHENG , Qi JING
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507229
    Objective

    To analyze the prevalence and influencing factors of physical pain among Chinese elderly, providing evidence for pain identification and intervention.

    Methods

    Data from 6 191 elderly participants in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression and random forest algorithms to assess the impact and importance of various factors on pain severity.

    Results

    59.13% of elderly individuals reported pain, with over 30% experiencing moderate or severe pain. The most common pain sites were the lower back, knees, and legs. Male gender (OR=0.695, 95% CI=0.614-0.787), higher education (OR=0.870, 95% CI=0.766-0.988), and retirement (OR=0.802, 95% CI=0.699-0.921) are protective factors. BADL disability (OR=2.071, 95% CI=1.832-2.340), IADL disability (OR=1.990, 95% CI=1.756-2.235), depressive symptoms (OR=1.548, 95% CI=1.378-1.739), poor sleep quality (OR=1.530, 95% CI=1.334-1.756), arthritis or rheumatism (OR=2.486, 95% CI=2.244-2.753), Parkinson’s disease (OR=1.679, 95% CI=1.160-2.428), digestive diseases (OR=1.642, 95% CI=1.478-1.824), cancer (OR=1.554, 95% CI=1.143-2.112), kidney disease (OR=1.543, 95% CI=1.331-1.788), heart disease (OR=1.457, 95% CI=1.299-1.636), and chronic lung diseases (OR=1.190, 95% CI=1.034-1.371) are risk factors. Random forest analysis showed that arthritis, BADL, IADL, depression, and sleep quality were key factors influencing pain severity.

    Conclusion

    The physical pain burden among elderly Chinese is significant and influenced by multiple factors. Pain management should focus on early identification and individualized interventions for high-risk groups to improve quality of life.

  • Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances
  • Yong-hua YE , Huan XU , Pan CHENG , Xue-wei TANG , Huang-yi YANG , Wei LIAO , Ju-ying ZHANG , Xing ZHAO
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202506272
    Objective

    To investigate the association between frailty and heart failure onset, and to identify the metabolomic features mediating the relationship between frailty and heart failure.

    Methods

    Based on the UK Biobank (UKB), 255 160 participants who underwent baseline testing for 168 metabolites were included. The Fried frailty phenotype assessment data were obtained and divided into three groups: non-frailty (0), pre-frailty (1-2), and frailty (≥3). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the relationship between frailty and the risk of heart failure. Additionally, a mediation analysis was conducted on metabolites to assess the mediating role of metabolic markers in the relationship between frailty and heart failure.

    Results

    Compared with non-frail participants, participants in the pre-frailty and frailty states had an increased risk of heart failure, with hazard ratios ( HR) of 1.441 (95% CI: 1.374–1.55) and 2.544 (95% CI: 2.323–2.785), respectively. Mediation analysis revealed that small high-density lipoprotein-related metabolites and low-density lipoprotein components played an important mediating role in the relationship between frailty and heart failure, with corresponding mediation proportions of 3.8%–5.5%.

    Conclusion

    Frailty is associated with an increased risk of heart failure, and plasma metabolites characterised by small high-density lipoproteins and low-density lipoproteins may be key biomarkers mediating the association between frailty and heart failure.

  • Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances
  • Shuang JIANG , Lin HU , Hua-ying CHENG , Xin YAO , Lu LONG , Jia-qiang LIAO , Xia JIANG , Tao ZHANG , Jia-yuan LI
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505185
    Objective

    This study aims to explore the effects of total physical activity (PA) and its structural composition on phenotypic age acceleration (PhenoAgeAccel) in older adults, providing a scientific basis for intervening in aging through optimizing PA structure.

    Methods

    A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 7 016 older adults aged 60 years and above from the West China Health and Aging Cohort Study. Weekly PA levels and their domain-specific proportions (work, transportation, recreation) were assessed using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire-2 (GPAQ-2). PhenoAgeAccel was calculated as the residual of chronological age regressed on PhenoAge. Multiple linear regression models were employed to analyze the effects of total PA on PhenoAgeAccel, controlling for demographic characteristics, anthropometric indices, lifestyle factors, and chronic diseases, followed by subgroup analyses. Isometric log-ratio transformation (ILR) in compositional data analysis (CoDA) and isotemporal substitution model were applied to analyze the effects of the proportion of different PA types.

    Results

    Total PA was negatively correlated with PhenoAgeAccel. Each 1-standard deviation increase in total PA was associated with a 0.32-year reduction in PhenoAgeAccel (β=-0.32, 95% CI: -0.46 - -0.18). Subgroup analyses showed that increasing PA could more effectively delay aging in elderly individuals aged 60 - 70 years, those with obesity, non-smokers, and those with baseline hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or dyslipidemia. There were differential contributions among PA types. When 1% of leisure activity replaced work activity, PhenoAgeAccel decreased by 0.031 years (β=-0.031, 95% CI: -0.057 - -0.006). When 1% of leisure activity replaced transport activity, PhenoAgeAccel decreased by 0.034 years (β=-0.034, 95% CI: -0.059 - -0.010). The substitution effect between the proportion of work activity and that of transport activity was not statistically significant.

    Conclusion

    Increasing total PA and optimizing PA types can slow down PhenoAgeAccel, and recreation activities replacing work or transport activities have prominent effects in delaying aging. Promoting a physical activity pattern centered on recreational activities is recommended to reduce the risk of aging-related diseases.

  • Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances
  • Guan-lian HE , Xue-ting WANG , Wei-guang YAO
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507187
    Objective

    To analyze the trend of pancreatic cancer disease burden attributable to hyperglycemia in China from 1990 to 2021 and project it to 2030, and to compare the differences in disease burden characteristics and trends between China and the world and different SDI regions, in order to provide a basis for optimizing pancreatic cancer prevention and control strategies.

    Methods

    Based on the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021, the disease burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to hyperglycemia in China was described by the number of deaths, mortality rate, DALY, and DALY rate from 1990 to 2021, the PAF was used to rank the risk factors, and the AAPC was calculated using the Joinpoint model to analyze the difference in disease burden trends in China, globally, and in different SDI regions, and the ARIMA model was used to project to 2022-2030.

    Results

    The number of pancreatic cancer deaths attributable to hyperglycemia, mortality rate, DALY and DALY rate in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2021. Men had higher mortality, standardized mortality, DALY rate and standardized DALY rate than women. The peaks of PAF for mortality and DALY rate were in the 75-79 and 70-74 age groups, respectively. The standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate were positively correlated with the SDI, and China was lower than the global average. The ARIMA model predicted that the standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALY rate would decrease to 1.13/100 000 and 25.33/100 000 in 2030, respectively.

    Conclusion

    The burden of pancreatic cancer disease attributable to hyperglycemia in China from 1990 to 2021 showed significant gender differences and age distribution patterns, and the burden of disease in China, although consistently lower than the global average, showed a trend of synchronous growth with that of the world and all SDI regions. Therefore, China should improve its hyperglycemia screening and management system and adopt targeted interventions for men and young and middle-aged groups to reduce the disease burden of pancreatic cancer due to hyperglycemia.

  • Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances
  • Ting ZHANG , Yan-wen MAO , Qiao-yu HUANG , Si-meng SUN , Xin HONG , Hua-feng YANG , Xiao-yan ZHANG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508013
    Objective

    To assess the disease burden and trends of age-related and other hearing loss in China from 1990 to 2021, and to project future developments through 2030, thereby informing the optimisation of healthcare resource allocation and the formulation of targeted prevention and control strategies.

    Methods

    Data sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Indicators including the number of prevalence cases, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), and age-standardized rates for age-related and other hearing loss in China were extracted. Joinpoint regression models were used to analyse temporal trends, calculating annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models projected disease burden for 2022-2030.

    Results

    Between 1990 and 2021, the number of prevalence cases and YLDs for age-related and other hearing loss in China increased by 125.06% (AAPC=2.65%, P<0.001) and 135.13% (AAPC=2.79%, P<0.001), respectively. Crude rates of prevalence and YLDs increased by 86.10% and 94.43%, respectively, whereas age-standardized rates of prevalence YLDs showed smaller increases with AAPCs of 0.19% and 0.28%. Absolute disease burden values were higher among males than females, though females exhibited faster growth rates. The most pronounced increase in disease burden occurred among the working-age population aged 20-54 years. Moderate and profound hearing loss showed significant growth, whereas the prevalence of complete hearing loss declined. Projections indicate that age-standardized rates of prevalence YLDs will continue to rise through 2030, albeit at a slower pace.

    Conclusion

    The disease burden of age-related hearing loss in China continues to rise, with population ageing as the primary driver. Sex, age, and severity differences exist within this burden, necessitating the development of lifecycle-spanning and differentiated hearing health prevention and control strategies. These should prioritize working-age populations and female cohorts, while strengthening early intervention and noise control measures.

  • Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Ying-tong CHEN , Hao-yan GU , Fan YANG , Gai-sheng LIU , Liu-quan JIANG , Qing-song CHEN , Xi FU , Shan WU
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505393
    Objective

    To investigate the association between systemic inflammation markers (SII, NHR, MHR, LHR) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) among employees of coal electricity corporation, providing a basis for early screening of MASLD in occupational populations.

    Methods

    A cross-sectional study was conducted, and 16 912 medical examination employees of a coal electricity corporation in Shanxi Province were included in 2023. Logistic regression was used to analyze correlations, restricted cubic spline (RCS) was performed to explore dose-response relationships, and subgroup analyses was conducted based on demographics, occupation and disease history.

    Results

    The prevalence of MASLD among coal-electricity workers was 28.03%, and the prevalence was higher in men than in women. Logistic regression analysis found that the highest quartile (Q4) of SII, MHR, and LHR were all significantly associated with the risk of MASLD, with OR (95% CI) of 1.259 (1.066-1.485), 2.166 (1.817-2.582) and 1.272 (1.085-1.491), respectively. The RCS showed that a nonlinear correlation of the four systemic inflammation markers and MASLD (Ptotal <0.05, Pnonlinear <0.05). Subgroup analysis showed that LHR was positively associated with MASLD risk in all subgroups of gender, age groups, metabolic-related diseases and occupational exposure, SII was positively associated in subgroups of males, ≥ 50 years old, no metabolic-related diseases and no occupational exposures, and MHR was also positively associated in subgroups of males, ≥ 40 years old, and no metabolic-related diseases and occupational exposures. NHR was only associated with MASLD in women subgroups.

    Conclusion

    SII, MHR, NHR and LHR were nonlinearly correlated with the risk of MASLD among coal-electricity workers, and were influenced by gender, age, metabolism-related diseases, and occupational exposures.

  • Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Jia-hui LI , Dan-ping DUAN , Lu-xi BAI , Yan-ru LI , Chun-qing CAI , Zhi WANG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507101
    Objective

    To investigate the impact of occupational noise exposure, personality traits, and their interactions on the risk of depression among working populations, to identify potential high-risk groups for depression, and to provide scientific evidence for the early prevention and personalized intervention of depression among occupational populations.

    Methods

    In this study, individual occupational noise exposure levels were assessed using cumulative noise exposure (CNE) for employees in a transport rail enterprise and automobile manufacturing unit in Guangzhou City in 2024. Depression, personality traits, and other relevant information were collected through questionnaires and occupational health examinations. Associations of occupational noise exposure, personality traits, and depression symptoms were statistically analyzed using logistic regression models and restricted cubic spline analysis. Interactions between occupational noise exposure and personality traits were analyzed using additive models to identify subgroups that may be at different risk or benefit as a result of the interaction.

    Results

    1 046 employees from two units in Guangzhou City were included in the final study. The median age of the study subjects was 29.0 (8.0) years, with a median CNE exposure level of 90.9 dB-years. A total of 390 individuals were identified as having depressive symptoms. The results of the logistic regression model indicate that CNE (OR=1.013, 95% CI: 1.008 to 1.018) and neuroticism (OR=1.106, 95% CI: 1.087 to 1.126) are risk factors for positive depressive symptoms. Agreeableness (OR=0.906, 95% CI: 0.884 to 0.927), Conscientiousness (OR=0.929, 95% CI: 0.909 to 0.948), openness (OR=0.947, 95% CI: 0.927 to 0.966), and extraversion (OR=0.877, 95% CI: 0.855 to 0.898) were protective factors against positive depressive symptoms. Simultaneously, RCS results indicated that agreeableness and extraversion exhibited linear dose-response relationships with depressive symptoms (P for overall <0.05, P for nonlinear >0.05), while cumulative noise exposure, neuroticism, conscientiousness, and openness demonstrated non-linear dose-response relationships (P for overall <0.05, P for nonlinear <0.05). Moreover, high neuroticism, low agreeableness, and low extraversion each exhibited additive interactions with occupational noise exposure. The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) values were 3.332, 2.653, and 4.579; the synergy index (SI) values were 2.315, 1.852, and 2.979;and the attributable proportions of interaction (AP) were 0.485, 0.392, and 0.580, respectively.

    Conclusion

    Occupational noise exposure and personality traits are influencing factors in the development of depressive symptoms among employees, with occupational noise exposure exhibiting an additive interaction with high neuroticism, low agreeableness, and low extraversion. Consequently, organizations should strengthen noise control measures in the workplace and implement targeted psychological interventions for employees exhibiting specific personality characteristics within this environment.

  • Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Bo YANG , Wei WANG , Meng-ying KE , Gui-ping HUANG , Jie LI , Ting FAN , Chang-jiang HU
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507347
    Objective

    To explore the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and the risk of gastric intestinal metaplasia (IM), and to analyze the heterogeneity of the associations across age, sex, and the form of medical consultation.

    Methods

    A case-control study was conducted, including patients first diagnosed with IM (case group, n=8 822) and chronic gastritis (CG) controls (n=191 840) at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University between January 2012 and September 2024. Population-weighted average concentrations of air pollutants (PM2.5, SO2, CO, NO2, O3) over the 3-year period prior to diagnosis were calculated as exposure metrics. Single- and dual-pollutant logistic regression models were used to estimate PM2.5 effects, with subgroup analyses stratified by sex, age, and the form of medical consultation. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) models were used to explore the nonlinear associations. The 1-year and 5-year exposure windows were used as sensitivity analyses.

    Results

    IM patients (mean age 57.521 years) were older than CG controls (49.254 years), with higher proportions of males (58.3% vs. 42.7%) and inpatients (15.6% vs. 4.7%). After adjusting for calendar year and province, single-pollutant models revealed that each 10μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure was associated with 35% (OR=1.35, 95% CI: 1.27–1.43), 39% (OR=1.39, 95% CI: 1.32–1.47), and 38% (OR=1.38, 95% CI: 1.31–1.46) elevated IM risks for 1-, 3-, and 5-year exposure windows, respectively. Effects remained stable after adjusting for SO2, O3, or CO, but attenuated (while still significant) when adjusting for NO2. Subgroup analyses showed no significant heterogeneity across age, sex, and the form of medical consultation. RCS indicated a nonlinear dose-response relationship between PM2.5 and log-transformed IM risk (P<0.001).

    Conclusion

    Long-term PM2.5 exposure is significantly associated with an increased IM risk, with consistent effects across sex, age, and the form of medical consultation subgroups.

  • Nutrition and Food Hygiene
  • Xue-ting LIU , Xiao-yu WANG , Yu-jie XU , Jing-yuan XIONG , Guo CHENG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507224
    Objective

    To develop a comprehensive index for evaluating the beverage intake quality of Chinese children and assess its reliability and validity.

    Methods

    Using data on commercially available children’s beverages in China collected through both online and offline channels, beverage scores were calculated for different beverage categories. Based on these scores and relevant domestic and international recommendations, CCHBI was established. Leveraging publicly available data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey and referencing the validity and reliability evaluation methods of the Healthy Beverage Index for American Children, the validity and reliability of CHNS were assessed in terms of construct validity, discriminant validity, and internal consistency.

    Results

    The CCHBI comprised four assessment dimensions—beverages, added sugars, water intake, and knowledge/attitudes—with 14 indicators, yielding a total score range of -77 to 19 points. Children with higher CCHBI scores exhibited water consumption more aligned with recommended standards and tended to choose healthier beverages such as 100% pure fruit juice. The index identified five distinct beverage consumption patterns, reflecting diversity in intake. The CCHBI demonstrated strong discriminant validity, differentiating beverage quality across sociodemographic factors such as residential location and maternal education level (Ps<0.05). Children with poor beverage intake quality exhibited an increased risk of overweight/obesity, confirming criterion validity. The standardized and non-standardized Cronbach α coefficients were 0.63 and 0.67, respectively, indicating acceptable internal consistency.

    Conclusion

    The CCHBI effectively reflects beverage intake quality and consumption habits among Chinese children, with satisfactory reliability and validity.

  • Nutrition and Food Hygiene
  • Yan SUN , Jiang-jiang PENG , Hua GUO , Yi-ya LIU
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501134
    Objective

    To investigate the dietary patterns among adults in Guizhou Province over the period from 1991 to 2023 and to offer a scientific foundation for developing strategies related to chronic disease prevention and nutritional enhancement.

    Methods

    The survey data originated from the China Health and Nutrition Survey project, selecting 10 892 subjects with complete data. Dietary data were collected using a 3-day 24-hour dietary recall method. Oblique principal component cluster analysis was employed to screen food groups, while K-means cluster analysis was used to extract distinct dietary patterns. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was conducted to examine differences in the intake of major foods and nutrients across different dietary patterns. The Cochran-Armitage trend test analyzed changes in the proportion of individuals following different dietary patterns across years. A multivariable logistic regression model examined the interaction between survey year and geographic region. Chi-square tests assessed differences in the proportions of the three dietary patterns among adult residents in Guizhou Province with varying characteristics in 2023.

    Results

    Dietary patterns among adult residents in Guizhou Province are primarily categorized into three types: high-quality protein, plant-based foods, and mixed. In 2023, the proportion of urban residents following the high-quality protein pattern exceeded that of rural residents, while the proportion adhering to the plant-based foods pattern was lower than in rural areas. As educational attainment increases, the proportion of individuals following the high-quality protein pattern rises, whereas the proportion following the plant-based foods pattern gradually decreases. From 1991 to 2023, plant-based dietary patterns predominated among Guizhou’s adult residents. After 1997, the proportion following plant-based patterns gradually declined while the proportion adopting high-quality protein patterns gradually increased. Starting in 2006, the proportion following high-quality protein patterns rose significantly, while the proportion following plant-based patterns decreased substantially. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a significant interaction between survey year and geographic region for dietary patterns (P<0.000 1). The Northern/Western Guizhou Mixed Development Zone exhibited the fastest increase in the proportion of individuals following the high-quality protein pattern (OR=1.099) and the fastest decrease in the proportion following the plant-based food pattern (OR=0.943).

    Conclusion

    The proportion of people with more reasonable dietary patterns among adult residents of Guizhou Province increased from 1991 to 2023, but there is still a need to strengthen the publicity of nutritional and healthy diets and to promote the establishment of balanced dietary patterns.

  • Child and Adolescent health, Maternal and Child Health
  • Hai-rui JIANG , Gang LI , Meng MI , Xiao-wen PANG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508089
    Objective

    To reveal the epidemiological patterns of unintentional injury among children and evaluate health inequality, providing a scientific basis for formulating appropriate prevention strategies.

    Methods

    Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study framework, we extracted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and DALYs rate for unintentional injury and its types among children 0~14 from 1990 to 2021. We employed the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for trend analysis. Das Gupta decomposition method was applied to quantify the contributions of age structure, population size and epidemiological factors changes to variations in DALYs. The Slope Index of Inequality and Concentration Index were used to analyze relative inequality and absolute inequality, respectively.

    Results

    In 2021, the AAPC of DALYs for unintentional injury among children was -2.82%, and the AAPC of DALYs rate was -3.81% globally. In China, the AAPC of DALYs and DALYs rate were -6.41% and -5.76%, respectively. Males and children under 5 years old had higher DALYs and DALYs rate. Globally, the contributions of epidemiological factors changes, age structure, and population size to DALYs were -44.06 million, -1.77 million, and 6.46 million, respectively. In China, the corresponding values were -12.91 million, -0.66 million, and -1.84 million. The Slope Index of Inequality was decreased from -4 044.77 per 100 000 populations in 1990 to -1 473.73 per 100 000 populations in 2021. The Concentration Index was -0.30 in 2019, and -0.43 in 2021.

    Conclusion

    Although the burden of unintentional injury among children has shown downward trends, boys and children under 5 years old remain priority populations for targeted interventions. Relative health inequality has intensified, and countries or regions with lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) bear a heavier disease burden from unintentional injury.

  • Child and Adolescent health, Maternal and Child Health
  • Hua-ling QIN , Hong-heng LI , Jian-guang XIE , Bin LI , Hong-ye LUO
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507271
    Objective

    To explore the childcare willingness of Guangxi families and its influencing factors under the support of childcare policies, so as to provide reference for the government to optimize childcare service policies and supporting measures.

    Methods

    Based on the data of the 7th National Health Service Survey in Guangxi in 2023, 336 families with infants aged 0-3 in three regions (northern, central and southern Guangxi) were selected by stratified sampling. Information such as family basic characteristics, economic status and social factors was collected through questionnaires. Chi-square test and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of childcare willingness.

    Results

    A total of 354 family questionnaires were distributed, 18 questionnaires with incomplete filling and logical errors were excluded, and 336 valid questionnaires were recovered. Among the respondents, 243 cases were willing to take childcare, and 93 cases had no such willingness. The overall childcare willingness rate of Guangxi families was 72.3%. Multivariate analysis showed that age, ethnicity, urban-rural distribution, number of children born, and occupation type were the influencing factors of family childcare willingness. The main reasons for the unwillingness to take childcare included infants’ adaptation problems, high prices of childcare institutions, and insufficient trust.

    Conclusion

    The childcare willingness of Guangxi families is affected by multiple factors such as ethnic culture, urban-rural resource allocation, and family care pressure. Strategies such as embedding ethnic culture, balancing urban-rural resources, and providing hierarchical services are needed to improve the accessibility of childcare services and family trust.

  • Health Policy and Management
  • Yu-xuan ZHAO , Hong-yu LAI , Shi-yong WU , Jie PAN
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509378

    Healthy life expectancy (HLE) is a key indicator for measuring population health levels. Its value estimation is significant for optimizing public health resource allocation, promoting health equity, and addressing active aging. Current main valuation methods include: the human capital approach, which reflects the future value of income; the willingness to pay method, which quantifies individual health risk preferences; and the economic growth model method, which reflects comprehensive value dimensions. This article reviews existing main valuation methods and their application research, systematically summarizes the advantages, limitations, and applicable scenarios of different methods, and provides support for constructing a multi-dimensional HLE valuation system to facilitate more precise evidence-based decision-making for resource allocation and policy interventions under the Healthy China strategy.

  • Health Policy and Management
  • Shi-yong WU , Yue CAI , Zi-tong WANG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509383
    Objective

    To explore the construction of an integrated monitoring platform for Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) statistics and to conduct a preliminary evaluation of its application effectiveness.

    Methods

    Challenges were analyzed to define development goals. Multiple sources of health and medical big data were integrated, and advanced technologies such as blockchain and big data processing were applied to enable dynamic monitoring, automated calculation, and comprehensive analysis of HLE and its determinants.

    Results

    The platform successfully connected with information systems from tertiary hospitals nationwide, multiple public health data platforms, and various disease registries. Data completeness improved significantly from an average of 65% to over 92%. A monitoring system comprising five categories and more than 30 HLE-related indicators was established, identifying over 20 key factors strongly associated with HLE. The average approval time for data-sharing applications was reduced from seven working days to three, enhancing both security and efficiency in data sharing.

    Conclusion

    The integrated monitoring platform for HLE statistics demonstrates substantial value in improving the efficiency of health data analysis, supporting policy formulation, and guiding health interventions. It provides robust data support and technological assurance for the advancement of the Healthy China initiative.

  • Health Policy and Management
  • Chen-xi PAN , Ling LI
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507169
    Objective

    To explore the influencing factors of health poverty among the elderly in China and provide a basis for improving the health poverty situation of the elderly.

    Methods

    Based on the health ecology theory, this study utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2020, selecting the elderly aged 60 and above as the research subjects.The occurrence of health poverty among the elderly was taken as the dependent variable, and independent variables were included from five dimensions: personal traits, behavioral characteristics, interpersonal networks, family living environment, and policy systems. Chi-square tests and stratified Logistic regression analyses were conducted for statistical processing.

    Results

    Age (70-79 years old, OR=1.416, 95% CI: 1.248-1.606; 80 years old and above, OR=1.583, 95% CI: 1.263-1.983), having three or more chronic diseases (OR=1.464, 95% CI: 1.300-1.649), self-rated health (fair, OR=0.449, 95% CI: 0.366-0.550; good, OR=0.335, 95% CI: 0.256-0.438; very good, OR=0.314, 95% CI: 0.238-0.415), drinking alcohol (OR=0.833, 95% CI: 0.735-0.944), marital status (married, OR=2.655, 95% CI: 2.062-3.419), family size (2 people, OR=0.567, 95% CI: 0.425-0.756; 3 people or more, OR=0.218, 95% CI: 0.163-0.292), per capita high income of the family (OR=0.782, 95% CI: 0.672-0.911), medical insurance type (urban and rural residents’ medical insurance, urban residents’ medical insurance, new rural medical insurance, OR=1.296, 95% CI: 1.052-1.596), and central region (OR=0.755, 95% CI: 0.643-0.887) were all important factors influencing the incidence of health poverty among the elderly.

    Conclusion

    The incidence of health poverty among the elderly in China is relatively high, and factors at different levels have significant impacts on the occurrence of health poverty among the elderly, with interactions among these factors. Therefore, it is necessary to take a multi-dimensional approach and comprehensively consider individual, family, social, and policy factors to effectively improve the health poverty situation of the elderly.

  • Health and Social Behavior
  • Yan-xin SUN , Jing-ting LIANG , Hui-xian LI , Ming-xing NI , Hui-ying LIANG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508227
    Objective

    To investigate the association and dose–response relationship between leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and the risk of incident common mental disorders.

    Methods

    This study included 388 559 participants without a history of mental disorders at baseline from the UK Biobank cohort. Weekly total energy expenditure from LTPA was calculated and categorized into four groups: inactive (0MET-h/week), insufficiently active (>0–7.49MET-h/week), sufficiently active (7.5–14.9MET-h/week), and highly active (≥15MET-h/week). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios ( HR), and restricted cubic splines were applied to explore the dose–response patterns.

    Results

    During a median follow-up of 12.71 years, 27 875 incident cases of mental disorders were documented. Compared with the inactive group, the risk of mental disorders was significantly reduced in the below recommended, meeting recommended, and above recommended groups, with HR of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.81–0.87), 0.76 (95% CI: 0.72–0.79), and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.70–0.76), respectively. Restricted cubic spline analysis demonstrated an L-shaped nonlinear association. LTPA was inversely associated with the risk of depression, anxiety disorders, and schizophrenia, while no significant associations were found for bipolar disorder or eating disorders.

    Conclusion

    LTPA is significantly inversely associated with the risk of developing mental disorders. Protective effects were observed even at activity levels below current recommendations, and a clear dose–response relationship was evident.

  • Health and Social Behavior
  • Chen-shuai SHEN , Wen-xiao YUAN , Hong-ping LI , Qian-qian GAO , Qi JING , Run-guo GAO , Hong-qing AN , Wei-qin CAI
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508052
    Objective

    To investigate cognitive function and depression as mediators between exercise and falls in elderly chronic disease patients.

    Methods

    Using stratified and convenience sampling, this cross-sectional survey in Shandong included 1 433 elderly chronic disease patients via a self-designed questionnaire. Generalized structural equation modeling and Bootstrap testing were used.

    Results

    Fall incidence was 18.8%. Exercisers had significantly lower fall incidence. Cognitive function scores were lower in fallers; depression scores were higher in fallers. Exercise, cognitive function, and depression significantly affected falls (P<0.05). Exercise negatively predicted falls (β=-0.376, 95% CI:-0.685- -0.067). Cognitive function (β=-0.037, 95% CI:-0.070--0.004) and depression (β=-0.124, 95% CI:-0.194- -0.055) had significant mediating effects. A chain-mediating effect existed via cognitive function and depression (β=-0.011, 95% CI:-0.021--0.001).

    Conclusion

    Exercise directly reduces falls and also reduces falls indirectly through the mediating effects of cognitive function and depression.

  • Health and Social Behavior
  • Li HONG , Ren-quan ZHANG , Ning-ning KANG , Hong-yan SONG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507045
    Objective

    To explore the association of sleep duration and depression with Chronic lung disease (CLD) in middle-aged and elderly Chinese.

    Methods

    Using CHARLS public data (2011-2020), Cox regression and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analyses were performed to assess the associations and dose-response relationships of sleep duration and depression with CLD. Subgroup and interaction analyses was further conducted to evaluate effect heterogeneity, and sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our results.

    Results

    Among 6 011 respondents, 27.65% had short sleep, 63.85% had normal sleep, 8.50% had long sleep, and 35.63% had depression. Cox regression analysis showed that short sleep duration ( HR=1.23, 95% CI: 1.04-1.45, P=0.018) and depression ( HR=1.76, 95% CI: 1.50-2.05, P<0.001) significantly increased CLD risk. The results of RCS analysis showed that sleep duration (P-overall=0.009, P-non-linear=0.121) and depression (P-overall<0.001, P-non-linear=0.116) had a dose-response and linear relationship with CLD risk. The results of infled-point analysis showed that, when the sleep duration was <6.97 h or CES-D score was >7, the risk of CLD increased with the decrease of sleep or the increase of CES-D score. Subgroup analysis showed that the association between short sleep duration and the risk of CLD was more significant in women aged 45-59 years, with high school education or above, low physical activity, social participation, and non-diabetes. The interaction showed that with the increase of education level, the association between long sleep and CLD decreased by 29%, and the association between depression and CLD increased by 19%.

    Conclusion

    Short sleep duration and depression are important risk factors for CLD in middle-aged and elderly people, and their evaluation should be included in the CLD prevention system.

  • Health and Social Behavior
  • Yue-qian ZHANG , Ruo-fei WANG , Zhao ZHANG , Juan TAN , Rong-jiang ZHAO , Ya-juan NIU
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507395
    Objective

    To analyze the factors influencing suicidal ideation in transgender individuals.

    Methods

    A study was conducted on transgender individuals from a medical institution. Participants were surveyed using a self-designed general information questionnaire, the Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCCS), the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), and the Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS). Logistic regression was used to analyze factors influencing suicidal ideation.

    Results

    A total of 170 participants was included. The detection rate of suicidal ideation among transgender individuals was 54.7% (93/170). Risk factors for suicidal ideation included age ≥30 years (OR=3.35, 95% CI=1.31-8.56), experience of domestic violence (OR=2.97, 95% CI=1.16-7.61), low life satisfaction (OR=5.13, 95% CI=2.29-11.50), and low family support (OR=3.31, 95% CI=1.43-7.66). A higher education level (bachelor’s degree or above) was identified as a protective factor (OR=0.42, 95% CI=0.19-0.93).

    Conclusion

    Higher education (bachelor’s degree or above) serves as a protective factor against suicidal ideation in transgender individuals, while older age (≥30 years), experience of domestic violence, low life satisfaction, and lack of family support are risk factors.

  • Health and Social Behavior
  • You HUANG , Xiao SHU , Jing ZHANG , Pei-pei YAN , Ying XIONG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507378
    Objective

    To study the association of insufficient sleep and internet addiction with comorbid depressive and anxiety symptoms among middle school students in Chongqing, and to provide evidence for developing mental health intervention strategies.

    Methods

    A stratified cluster sampling method was employed to select 68 961 middle school students from 41 districts/counties in Chongqing. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale (GAD-7) were used to assess symptoms of depression and anxiety, respectively. Chi-square tests were conducted to compare the detection rates of depression, anxiety, and comorbidity among different groups of students. Logistic regression models were utilized to analyze the associations between insufficient sleep, internet addiction, and the comorbidity of depression and anxiety.

    Results

    The prevalence rates of insufficient sleep and internet addiction among middle school students were 67.2% and 4.0%, respectively. The detected rates of depression, anxiety, and comorbidity were 25.3%, 6.8%, and 6.0%, respectively, with significantly higher proportions observed in females, ethnic minorities, and high school students. Logistic regression analysis indicated that insufficient sleep (OR=1.492, 1.529, 1.562, all P<0.001) and internet addiction (OR=5.742, 4.600, 5.069, all P<0.001) are independent risk factors for depression, anxiety, and the comorbidity of depression and anxiety. The students exhibiting both risk factors demonstrate a significantly higher likelihood of developing depression, anxiety, and comorbidity compared to their peers without internet addiction and with sufficient sleep (OR=7.965, 6.481, 7.226, all P<0.001).

    Conclusion

    Insufficient sleep and internet addiction are significantly associated with increased risks of depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and their comorbidity among middle school students in Chongqing. It is recommended to implement comprehensive interventions through sleep health education, regulation of internet usage, and targeted psychological counseling.

  • Experimental Technology and Applications
  • Yang YANG , Xi-mei KONG , Qi-wu YUAN , Wei-feng HUANG , Zhi-qun HE , Yu-jing ZHONG , Yan-fang MIAO , Min FENG , Jin-yu HU , Xing FU , Qi-yan CHEN , Chang-hong ZHANG , Jian-tong MENG , Ming LI
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202502046
    Objective

    To analyze the drug resistance and genomic characteristics of Salmonella London isolates from Chengdu between 2019 and 2023.

    Methods

    Salmonella isolates from clinical and food sources in Chengdu during 2019-2023 were serologically identified, resulting in 72 Salmonella London strains. Drug susceptibility testing was performed using the microbroth dilution method. Whole-genome sequencing was conducted to analyze the core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) genetic characteristics and the presence of resistance genes.

    Results

    The isolates showed the highest resistance to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (76.39%, 55/72), followed by tetracycline (72.22%, 52/72), ampicillin (68.06%, 49/72), and chloramphenicol (62.50%, 45/72). All isolates were sensitive to ertapenem, ceftazidime/avibactam, tigecycline, meropenem, and amikacin. Among the 72 strains, 11 were sensitive to all 17 tested antibiotics. Multidrug resistance was observed in 70.83% (51/72) of the isolates, with the predominant resistance profile being AMP-AMS-CHL-SXT-TET (12.50%, 9/72). Of the 72 strains, 71 were identified as ST155, with 1 untyped. Some strains exhibited allele differences of ≤10, indicating high genetic homology.

    Conclusion

    The 72 Salmonella London isolates demonstrate high resistance rates and severe multidrug resistance, with the predominant resistance profile being AMP-AMS-CHL-SXT-TET. The high genetic homology among certain strains suggests the potential for foodborne illness outbreaks.

  • Experimental Technology and Applications
  • Xuan-jie YANG , Chun-ting LIU , Ming WANG , Qing MA , De-yu LI , Xiao-yu WEI , Yong HU , Shi-jun LI
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508314
    Objective

    To investigate the antimicrobial susceptibility and molecular characteristics of Bordetella pertussis (Bp)in Guizhou Province, in order to provide a scientific basis for pertussis prevention, control, and treatment strategy formulation.

    Methods

    Bp strains collected from Guizhou Province between 2017 and 2024 were isolated and identified, followed by antimicrobial susceptibility testing against 10 antibiotics, including erythromycin, azithromycin, and clarithromycin, using the E-test method. Based on next-generation sequencing, drug resistance gene locus detection and multilocus sequence typing(MLST)were performed. Pulsed field gel electrophoresis(PFGE)molecular typing was performed using the restriction enzyme XbaI.

    Results

    Of the 36 collected Bp strains, the resistance rate to macrolide antibiotics was 83.3% (30/36), increasing from 40% (2/5)in 2017 to 100% (19/19)in 2024. All resistant isolates harbored the A2047G mutation in the 23S rRNA gene. The susceptibility rate to Sulfamethoxazole-Trimethoprim was 58.3% (21/36), while all strains (100%, 36/36)were susceptible to ceftriaxone, meropenem, ampicillin, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, and gentamicin. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST)identified all isolates as sequence type 2 (ST-2). Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE)classified the strains into 21 pulsotypes and 5 clusters, with epidemic strains from 2023—2024 predominantly belonging to cluster C and exhibiting significant genetic divergence from earlier isolates.

    Conclusion

    Bp strains in Guizhou Province presents heterogeneous PFGE profiles, varying over time in genetic features and macrolide sensitivity, and differing molecularly from vaccine strains.

  • Disease Control and Prevention
  • Qin CHEN , Xiao-ping ZENG , Ming-chang WANG , Xiao-qing FU , Ye-qing WU , Chun-yan LIN
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202506422
    Objective

    To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of repeated infections of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Haikou City (2008-2024), and to provide reference for formulating prevention and control strategies.

    Methods

    Collect data through the national notifiable disease report system, Use descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and other methods for data analysis.

    Results

    The recurrence rate of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Haikou City (2008—2024) was 6.41%, and showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2016 onwards. The repeated infection epidemic season is from April to July and from September to November. The repeated infection rate in males (6.90%) is higher than that in females (5.62%). 95.18% of repeat infection patients are children aged 3 years and below, with repeat infection rates of 9.59%, 8.17%, 6.22%, and 4.95% in the age groups of <1、1-<2、2-<3 and 3-<4 years, respectively. The repeated infection rate among scattered children (7.32%) is higher than that of preschool children (4.14%) and students (0.96%). The repeated infection rate in rural areas (7.29%) is higher than that in urban areas (6.33%) and townships (5.50%). The median interval between repeated infections is 385 days, with 76.75% occurring within 2 years. The repeat infection rate of patients with severe symptoms (9.36%) is higher than that of patients with mild symptoms (6.39%). Male, 3 years old and under, scattered children and preschool children (compared with students), rural and urban areas (compared with towns), low incidence years, and severe first-time infections are risk factors for recurrent infections.

    Conclusion

    The repeated infection rate of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Haikou City is showing a downward trend, but it is still necessary to continue to strengthen health education, pathogen monitoring and other prevention and control measures. The key prevention and control targets are scattered children aged 3 and below, and actively promote EV71 vaccination, which is conducive to controlling and reducing the occurrence of repeated infections.

  • Clinical Medicine and Prevention
  • Yi-hang DING , Lu-ying WANG , Si-yi LU , Xiu-juan HOU
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507178
    Objective

    To analyze the value of the C-reactive protein-albumin-lymphocyte (CALLY) index as a predictor of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk in the general population.

    Methods

    Data from 9 791 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2007 to 2018 were included. The CALLY index was calculated, and multiple models were used to investigate and evaluate the association between CALLY and RA.

    Results

    Compared to the lowest quartile (Q1) of the CALLY index, the odds ratio (OR) for RA were 0.71 (95% CI: 0.57-0.89) for Q2, 0.63 (95% CI: 0.49-0.80) for Q3, and 0.49 (95% CI: 0.37-0.65) for Q4. A significant non-linear relationship existed between the CALLY index and RA (P<0.001).

    Conclusion

    The CALLY index demonstrates a significant negative correlation with the risk of rheumatoid arthritis.

  • Clinical Medicine and Prevention
  • Si-yang WANG , Chen MI , Yong-yue DU , Dong-dong WANG , Wei WANG , Yong-zhao LI , Xiang-ji DANG , Han-teng YANG
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507147
    Objective

    To evaluate the correlation between the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

    Methods

    This study was based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017—2018 cycle. A total of 5 948 participants who underwent liver transient elastography with complete data were included, comprising 1 995 in the NAFLD group and 3 953 in the non-NAFLD group. Serum albumin and total bilirubin levels were measured using the Roche Cobas 6000 analyzer.

    Results

    The ALBI score in the NAFLD group was significantly higher than that in the non-NAFLD group (Z=-7.217, P<0.001). After adjusting for covariates including age, sex, race, marital status, education level, poverty income ratio (PIR), body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption, hypertension, and diabetes, participants in the highest quartile (Q4) of ALBI score had a significantly increased risk of NAFLD (OR=1.763, 95% CI: 1.476-1.987). Further analysis showed a significant dose-response relationship between ALBI score and NAFLD risk (P<0.001), with no evidence of nonlinearity (P for nonlinearity=0.318). Stratified analysis revealed a significant interaction with age: among participants younger than 60 years, each quartile increase in ALBI score was associated with a 57.6% higher risk of NAFLD (OR=1.576, 95% CI: 1.396-1.848, P<0.05).

    Conclusion

    The ALBI score is independently and significantly positively associated with the risk of NAFLD, suggesting its potential application in risk assessment of metabolic-related liver disease.

  • Talent Development
  • Jia-xiang ZHANG , Rui DING , Yun YU , Min-min JIANG , Qi ZHONG , Tong SHEN
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202411364

    Exploring comprehensive experimental teaching methods that meet the needs of the new era and cultivating innovative, applied and versatile talents is of vital importance for the reform of public health and preventive medicine education. This study takes “Occupational Health Evaluation of Dust Exposure Workers” as an example, designs and constructs a “virtual-real integration” experimental teaching model. It adopts a teaching method of “preparation before the experiment-independent experimental design-analysis and summary - report writing and presentation”, following the progressive stages of “1 basic element”, “2 combinations”, “3 layers of analysis” and “multiple evaluations”. At the same time, it integrates the cultivation of innovation ability, forming a comprehensive experimental teaching model with professional characteristics. It focuses on cultivating students’ practical ability, problem awareness, problem-solving ability and innovative thinking ability, enhancing the job competence, innovation ability and social responsibility of preventive medicine students, and strengthening the education of students’ comprehensive ability level.

  • Talent Development
  • Guo-zhen ZHANG , Heng YANG , Wen-jie ZHANG , Kalibinuer Kadeer , Guliziba Abulimiti , Jiang-hong DAI
    doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202507129
    Objective

    To assess the effectiveness of 12 different teaching methods in teaching medical statistics courses.

    Methods

    CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, China Biological Data Platform, PUBMED and other databases were searched to collect research on teaching methods of medical statistics from the establishment of the database to June 2025. After literature screening, quality assessment and data extraction, Bayesian network Meta-analysis was used to evaluate the effect of each teaching method. The main evaluation indicators were final scores and teaching satisfaction.

    Results

    A total of 71 articles were included, with a sample size of 12 558 for analysis. Results showed that the final grade and teaching satisfaction of the hybrid teaching (MD=9.874, 95% CI: 7.490-12.230), PBL+CBL (MD=9.460, 95% CI: 5.934-12.998), PBL (MD=8.275, 95% CI: 6.174-10.345), CBL+roll class (MD=7.568, 95% CI: 3.451-11.726), and online+roll class (MD=6.428, 95% CI2.836-10.086), CBL (MD=5.557, 95% CI: 3.126-8.006) had an increase compared with the traditional teaching method. The teaching satisfaction of online+flipped classroom (OR=4.801, 95% CI: 1.083-24.451), CBL+flipped classroom (OR=5.036, 95% CI: 2.297-10.511), blended teaching (OR=5.011, 95% CI: 3.202-7.957), PBL (OR=2.973, 95% CI: 2.121-4.441), CBL (OR=2.653, 95% CI: 1.800-3.977), and PBL+CBL (OR=4.815, 95% CI: 2.709-9.003) had improved. In the ranking of grade probability, The possibility that the flipped classroom and the online+flipped classroom had the best teaching effect was the greatest.

    Conclusion

    Compared to traditional instructional methods, teaching models such as the flipped classroom, online+flipped classroom, blended learning, and PBL+CBL, CBL+flipped classroom have demonstrated advantages in final exam scores and student satisfaction. Tailoring these innovative teaching strategies to the specific circumstances of the course is expected to effectively enhance the quality of teaching in medical statistics.