To analyze the trend of pancreatic cancer disease burden attributable to hyperglycemia in China from 1990 to 2021 and project it to 2030, and to compare the differences in disease burden characteristics and trends between China and the world and different SDI regions, in order to provide a basis for optimizing pancreatic cancer prevention and control strategies.

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021, the disease burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to hyperglycemia in China was described by the number of deaths, mortality rate, DALY, and DALY rate from 1990 to 2021, the PAF was used to rank the risk factors, and the AAPC was calculated using the Joinpoint model to analyze the difference in disease burden trends in China, globally, and in different SDI regions, and the ARIMA model was used to project to 2022-2030.

The number of pancreatic cancer deaths attributable to hyperglycemia, mortality rate, DALY and DALY rate in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2021. Men had higher mortality, standardized mortality, DALY rate and standardized DALY rate than women. The peaks of PAF for mortality and DALY rate were in the 75-79 and 70-74 age groups, respectively. The standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate were positively correlated with the SDI, and China was lower than the global average. The ARIMA model predicted that the standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALY rate would decrease to 1.13/100 000 and 25.33/100 000 in 2030, respectively.

The burden of pancreatic cancer disease attributable to hyperglycemia in China from 1990 to 2021 showed significant gender differences and age distribution patterns, and the burden of disease in China, although consistently lower than the global average, showed a trend of synchronous growth with that of the world and all SDI regions. Therefore, China should improve its hyperglycemia screening and management system and adopt targeted interventions for men and young and middle-aged groups to reduce the disease burden of pancreatic cancer due to hyperglycemia.