To construct a risk prediction model for short-term poor prognosis in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and to explore the influencing factors of poor short-term prognosis in these patients, providing a basis for early prediction and intervention.

AECOPD patients admitted to the Department of Respiratory Medicine at Cangzhou People’s Hospital in Hebei Province from October 2020 to September 2021 were selected as the study subjects. After 90 days, patients were divided into case group (n=167) and control group (n=250) based on prognosis outcomes. Patient demographics, disease conditions, the Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea scale, and the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) were collected at different time points. Binary logistic regression was used for factor analysis, and a nomogram prediction model was established. The diagnostic efficacy and calibration of the nomogram model were evaluated using ROC curves and calibration curves, while DCA was used to assess clinical utility.

Multivariate analysis indicated that marital status (OR=2.111, 95%CI:1.076-4.141), severity of illness (OR=5.322, 95%CI: 2.908-9.740), history of frequent acute exacerbations (OR=8.217, 95%CI:4.569-14.778), nutritional risk (OR=2.463, 95%CI: 1.141-5.319), and PCT (OR=2.039, 95%CI: 1.116-3.727) were independent risk factors for poor short-term prognosis in AECOPD patients. The nomogram prediction model had an AUC of 0.894 (95%CI: 0.868-0.929), and the calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between predicted probabilities and actual outcomes, indicating high predictive accuracy.

The nomogram model can accurately identify the risk of poor short-term prognosis in AECOPD patients, providing a theoretical basis for personalized clinical management of AECOPD patients.

To analyze the incidence and epidemiological characteristics of congenital heart disease (CHD) in perinatal infants in Xinjiang from January 2016 to December 2022.

A retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of perinatal infants diagnosed with congenital heart disease from various birth defect monitoring hospitals between 2016 and 2022.

A total of 591 849 perinatal infants were monitored in Xinjiang, among which 3 531 cases of congenital heart disease were identified, resulting in an overall incidence rate of 59.66 per 100 000. There were statistically significant differences in annual incidence rates (χ²=754.466, P < 0.001), showing a general upward trend (χ²_trend =592.218, P < 0.001). The most common types of congenital heart disease were atrial septal defect (43.72 per 100 000), patent ductus arteriosus (25.53 per 100 000), ventricular septal defect (8.69 per 100 000), atrioventricular septal defect (3.25 per 100 000), and tetralogy of Fallot (0.79 per 100 000). The survival rate of perinatal infants with congenital heart disease showed an upward trend (χ²_trend =11.239, P=0.001).

The overall incidence of congenital heart disease in perinatal infants in Xinjiang is on the rise. It is recommended to further strengthen tertiary prevention measures to reduce the risk of congenital heart disease and improve the prognosis of surviving infants.

To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and trends of notifiable infectious diseases among ≥ 60-year-olds in Chaoyang District, Beijing, and to provide a basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in the elderly population.

The data of ≥ 60-year-old cases of notifiable infectious diseases in Chaoyang District from 2014 to 2023 were collected through the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System of the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the incidence trends and epidemiological characteristics of cases were descriptively analyzed.

From 2014 to 2023, the average annual incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases among ≥ 60-year-old population in Chaoyang District was 864.01/100 000 showing an upward trend over the years (AAPC=31.50%, P<0.05). The incidence was highest in the ≥ 85-year-old population, and the incidence rate of males was 1 020.40/100 000 and higher than that of females (922.03/100 000) (χ²=150.333, P<0.001). 48 979 cases were mainly respiratory infections, accounting for 84.56%, its incidence showed an increasing trend, while that of intestinal infectious diseases showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=40.77%, -9.12%, P<0.05). A total of 317 deaths had been reported, with an average annual mortality rate of 4.63 per 100 000.

From 2014 to 2023, the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases among ≥ 60-year-old population in Chaoyang District showed a significant upward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to tuberculosis, AIDS and influenza. Males are at high risk of respiratory and bloodborne and sexually transmitted infections; The incidence of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases from 2020 to 2023 has no obvious seasonal characteristics, and the peak increases.

To investigate the correlation between the DNA damage level of the CYTB gene and the arsenic methylation level, FEN1 and XPC gene polymorphism in workers exposed to arsenic.

A total of 79 workers exposed to occupational arsenic in a coke oven factory in the southern mountainous area of Yunnan Province were selected as the exposure group, and 24 agricultural workers from the same village were selected as the control group. The urine and peripheral blood samples of the subjects were collected.The concentration and percentage of arsenic and its metabolites were detected in the urine, and the DNA damage level of the CYTB gene was detected in peripheral blood.

The concentrations of inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and dimethylarsonic acid (DMA) in the urine of the exposure group were higher than those of the control group (P<0.01). The methylation level of the exposure group was significantly higher than that of the control group in terms of MMA% and primary methylation index (PMI), while the DMA% and secondary methylation index (SMI) were significantly lower than those of the control group (P<0.01). Linear regression analysis showed that the DNA damage level of the CYTB gene was positively correlated with MMA% (P< 0.01) and negatively correlated with SMI (P<0.001). The subjects with genotypes AA or GA+AA at the rs174538 locus of the FEN1 gene had significantly higher DNA damage levels of the CYTB gene than those with genotypes GG at this locus (P< 0.05). However, there was no statistical correlation between the genotype of XPC and the level of DNA damage in the CYTB gene (P>0.05).

Occupational arsenic exposure can lead to increased concentrations of arsenic and its metabolites in urine and decreased methylation of arsenic metabolism in the body. The DNA damage of the CYTB gene can be used as a marker of damage and early health damage in the body, and the mutation at the rs174538 locus of the FEN1 gene is associated with DNA damage of the CYTB gene, which can be used as an indicator of disease susceptibility in arsenic-exposed populations.

To investigate the current status and related factors of distribution of HIV delivery test among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Guangxi, aiming to provide references for promoting expanded HIV testing strategies for MSM.

From September 2021 to February 2022, 330 MSM were recruited in Nanning, Guilin, Liuzhou and Beihai, Guangxifor aprospective cohort study.Generalized Estimating Equations were used in analyses of related factors.

Among the 319 MSM participants in the follow-up survey, 63.95% (204/319) underwent HIV delivery test.Multivariate generalized estimating equations showed that MSM with health insurance (aOR=1.959, 95% CI: 1.047-3.664), those with a college and above (aOR=1.736, 95% CI: 1.173-2.569), those who had undergone HIV testing in the past 3 months (aOR=3.565, 95% CI: 2.048-6.205), and those who had used HIV self-testing in the past 3 months (aOR=1.780, 95% CI: 1.227-2.582) were more willing to undergo HIV delivery test.

The proportion of HIV delivery test of MSM in Guangxi was63.95%.MSM with health insurance, a college or above education,had HIV test, and HIV self-testing in the past 3 months were more willing to undergo HIV delivery test.We should strengthen the publicity and promotion of HIV delivery test, encouraging individuals to participate in HIV delivery test in this population.

To understand the prevalence and spatial clustering characteristics of tuberculosis in Guizhou Province, and provide scientific basis for further reducing the prevalence of tuberculosis.

Based on the incidence monitoring data of tuberculosis in Guizhou Province in the tuberculosis information management system from 2016 to 2023, this study described and analyzed the distribution characteristics of tuberculosis incidence in the whole province in time, population and region, and used spatial clustering to analyze the key regions and types of incidence rate clustering in the province.

From 2016 to 2023, the annual average reported incidence rate of tuberculosis in Guizhou Province was 100.28/100 000, and the reported incidence rate declined at an average annual rate of 6.82%, from 130.66/100 000 in 2016 to 82.90/100 000 (trend χ²=9 647.38, P<0.001). From 2016 to 2023, the reported incidence rate of men and women will decrease from 165.18/100 000, 93.89/100 000 to 102.32/100 000 and 62.58/100 000 respectively (trend χ²=6 968.96, 2 828.21,all P<0.001). The reported incidence rates in the age groups of <20 years old, 20-39 years old, 40-59 years old and ≥60 years old all showed a downward trend (trend χ²=3 021.42, 3 563.78, 2 477.46, 1 184.20,all P<0.001). The average annual reported incidence rate of men and age groups ≥60 years old were higher than others (χ²=18 845.45, 65 957.05, all P<0.001) and the proportion of farmers was 69.46% higher than that of other occupations (χ²=732 538.16, P<0.001). At the same time, the proportion of medical staff and teachers increased (trend χ²=61.54, 45.87, all P<0.001). Spatial clustering analysis showed that tuberculosis in the province presented a clustered distribution (Moran I=0.293, Z=4.607, P<0.001), with high-high clustered areas mainly concentrated in Wangmo County, Ceheng County and other areas in Qiannan Prefecture.

In recent years, the prevention and control of tuberculosis in Guizhou Province has achieved certain results, but the current situation of prevention and control is still quite severe. Males, age groups ≥60 years old, farmers, medical personnel and teachers are the key population affected by the disease. Areas with relatively backward economic and living standards, such as Wangmo and Ceheng in Qiannan Prefecture, are the key areas affected by the disease.

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Nanchang from 2005 to 2023 and evaluate the application value of the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in predicting hepatitis C incidence trends, providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis C in the city.

Data on hepatitis C incidence in Nanchang from January 2005 to December 2023 were collected. The trend and seasonal components of the monthly incidence data were analyzed using time series decomposition. The BSTS model was constructed using R software, with data from January 2005 to December 2022 used as the training set to fit the model, and data from January to December 2023 used as the test set to evaluate the model's predictive performance. The prediction accuracy of the BSTS model was compared with that of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) as evaluation metrics.

The overall incidence of hepatitis C in Nanchang has been on an upward trend, though the rate of increase has slowed since 2017. The data reveals significant cyclical and seasonal fluctuations, with a peak incidence in the spring months from March to May and a trough from January to February.The prediction performance indicators of the BSTS model (MAE=9.67, MAPE=17.61%, RMSE=11.99 and RMSPE=17.84) were all lower than those of the ARIMA model (MAE=12.12, MAPE=29.03%, RMSE=15.30, RMSPE=33.62). Based on the BSTS model, the total predicted number of hepatitis C cases in Nanchang from January 2024 to December 2024 is 308 (95% CI: 68-583), with an average monthly incidence of 26 cases (95% CI: 6-48).

Hepatitis C incidence in Nanchang exhibits periodic and seasonal fluctuations. The BSTS model outperforms the ARIMA model in prediction performance and can provide technical support for the precise prevention and control of hepatitis C.

To investigate the causal relationship between serum liver enzymes and cardiovascular diseases in the East Asian population through Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses.

A two-sample Mendelian randomization study was conducted using the hitherto largest genome-wide association study summary datasets in the East Asian population. The inverse-variance weighted method (IVW) and MR PRESSO were used as primary univariable MR analyses, whereas the weighted median method, MR Egger, removing palindromic and pleiotropic instrumental variables were used as sensitivity analyses. Multivariable MR analyses used the multivariable IVW method to evaluate the independent causal effects of multiple serum liver enzymes on coronary artery disease (CAD) and stroke.

Genetically predicted serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) were causally associated with CAD (ALT→CAD: OR=0.546, 95% CI: 0.403-0.739; GGT→CAD: OR=0.618, 95% CI: 0.555-0.689). Additionally, GGT directly affected CAD independent of ALT (OR=0.662, 95% CI: 0.586-0.747). Genetically predicted serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and GGT had direct causal effects on stroke that were independent of each other (AST→stroke: OR=1.137, 95% CI: 1.054-1.226; GGT→stroke: OR=1.166, 95% CI: 1.110-1.225).

Serum liver enzymes have causal effects on cardiovascular diseases in the East Asian population.

To explore the relationship between the prevalence of arthritis and cognitive function in the elderly and to verify the mediating effect of activities of daily living(ADL) and the moderating effect of social engagement to provide a reference point for promoting active aging.

This study based on the data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2020, a moderated mediated-effects model was constructed using the PROCESS 4.1 program to analyze the mechanisms of ADL and social engagement in the effects of arthritis on cognitive function in the elderly.

A total of 5 882 elderly were enrolled in this study. The prevalence of arthritis in the elderly had a significant negative effect on cognitive function (β=-1.050, P<0.001); ADL partially mediated between the two, with a significant mediating effect (95% CI:-0.430--0.194), and an effect value of -0.306, with an effect percentage of 29.1%; social engagement significantly moderated the effect of ADL on cognitive function (β=1.594, P<0.001), and the predictive effect of ADL on cognitive function was more significant for the elderly with low social engagement.

ADL mediates the relationship between arthritis prevalence and cognitive function in the elderly; social engagement moderates the relationship between ADL and cognitive function; the elderly should be more aware of precautions to reduce the incidence of the disease; family doctor service teams should strengthen the health management and early intervention of arthritis in the elderly and provide scientific guidance on the use of medication; enhance the ADL of the elderly; and encourage the social engagement of the elderly to strengthen their cognitive function and achieve active ageing.

To explore the mediating effect of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) on the association between body mass index (BMI) and thyroid nodules, and analyze the mechanisms of how an increase in BMI contributes to the development of thyroid nodules.

We selected 1 627 individuals who underwent health examinations at a hospital in Shenzhen from December 2020 to October 2023. Demographic data, physical examination, and biochemical test information were collected. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between BMI, HbA1c, and thyroid nodules. The bootstrap method was used to assess the mediating effect of HbA1c on the relationship between BMI and thyroid nodules.

Among the 1 627 participants, there were 520 males and 1 107 females, with males and females accounting for 32.0% and 68.0% of the sample, respectively. The detection rate of thyroid nodules was 40.9% (666/1 627). Significant differences (P<0.05) were observed between the nodule group and the non-nodule group in terms of age, BMI, occupation, education level, salt intake, HbA1c, and alkaline phosphatase levels. Multivariate analysis indicated that elevated BMI and HbA1c levels were risk factors for thyroid nodules, with OR(95% CI) of 1.038 (1.002-1.075) and 1.297(1.060-1.587), respectively. Mediation analysis showed that HbA1c partially mediated the effect of BMI on the prevalence of thyroid nodules (β=0.018, 95% CI [0.007 - 0.035]), with the mediating effect of HbA1c accounting for 31.58% of the total effect.

BMI and HbA1c are influencing factors of the risk of thyroid nodules, with HbA1c partially mediating the impact of BMI on the incidence of thyroid nodules.