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To construct a risk prediction model for short-term poor prognosis in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and to explore the influencing factors of poor short-term prognosis in these patients, providing a basis for early prediction and intervention.
AECOPD patients admitted to the Department of Respiratory Medicine at Cangzhou People’s Hospital in Hebei Province from October 2020 to September 2021 were selected as the study subjects. After 90 days, patients were divided into case group (n=167) and control group (n=250) based on prognosis outcomes. Patient demographics, disease conditions, the Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea scale, and the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) were collected at different time points. Binary logistic regression was used for factor analysis, and a nomogram prediction model was established. The diagnostic efficacy and calibration of the nomogram model were evaluated using ROC curves and calibration curves, while DCA was used to assess clinical utility.
Multivariate analysis indicated that marital status (OR=2.111, 95%CI:1.076-4.141), severity of illness (OR=5.322, 95%CI: 2.908-9.740), history of frequent acute exacerbations (OR=8.217, 95%CI:4.569-14.778), nutritional risk (OR=2.463, 95%CI: 1.141-5.319), and PCT (OR=2.039, 95%CI: 1.116-3.727) were independent risk factors for poor short-term prognosis in AECOPD patients. The nomogram prediction model had an AUC of 0.894 (95%CI: 0.868-0.929), and the calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between predicted probabilities and actual outcomes, indicating high predictive accuracy.
The nomogram model can accurately identify the risk of poor short-term prognosis in AECOPD patients, providing a theoretical basis for personalized clinical management of AECOPD patients.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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