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To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Nanchang from 2005 to 2023 and evaluate the application value of the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in predicting hepatitis C incidence trends, providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis C in the city.
Data on hepatitis C incidence in Nanchang from January 2005 to December 2023 were collected. The trend and seasonal components of the monthly incidence data were analyzed using time series decomposition. The BSTS model was constructed using R software, with data from January 2005 to December 2022 used as the training set to fit the model, and data from January to December 2023 used as the test set to evaluate the model's predictive performance. The prediction accuracy of the BSTS model was compared with that of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) as evaluation metrics.
The overall incidence of hepatitis C in Nanchang has been on an upward trend, though the rate of increase has slowed since 2017. The data reveals significant cyclical and seasonal fluctuations, with a peak incidence in the spring months from March to May and a trough from January to February.The prediction performance indicators of the BSTS model (MAE=9.67, MAPE=17.61%, RMSE=11.99 and RMSPE=17.84) were all lower than those of the ARIMA model (MAE=12.12, MAPE=29.03%, RMSE=15.30, RMSPE=33.62). Based on the BSTS model, the total predicted number of hepatitis C cases in Nanchang from January 2024 to December 2024 is 308 (95% CI: 68-583), with an average monthly incidence of 26 cases (95% CI: 6-48).
Hepatitis C incidence in Nanchang exhibits periodic and seasonal fluctuations. The BSTS model outperforms the ARIMA model in prediction performance and can provide technical support for the precise prevention and control of hepatitis C.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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