To investigate the mediating effects of visceral fat rate and muscle rate on the relationship between menopausal age and blood glucose levels in naturally postmenopausal women, providing references for diabetes prevention.

Participants were selected from the Guangzhou Chronic Disease Prospective Cohort Study.Baseline data including demographic characteristics, menopausal status, visceral fat rate, muscle rate, fasting blood glucose and lipid profiles were collected.Generalized linear models were used to analyze the relationships between menopausal age and visceral fat rate, muscle rate, and blood glucose levels.

The study included 1 939 naturally postmenopausal women with menopausal age ≥46 years (mean age 59.1±5.1 years, mean menopausal age 50.9±2.4 years). After adjusting for confounders, menopausal age showed linear associations with visceral fat rate (β=0.054, 95%CI: 0.024-0.083), muscle rate (β=-0.113, 95%CI: -0.193 to -0.032), and blood glucose (β=0.032, 95%CI: 0.009-0.055). Visceral fat rate and muscle rate partially mediated the relationship between menopausal age and blood glucose, accounting for 17.04% and 11.65% of the total effect respectively.

Later menopausal age may influence blood glucose levels partially through increasing visceral fat accumulation and decreasing muscle mass in postmenopausal women.

To systematically compare the performance of seven machine learning algorithms in constructing prediction models for tuberculosis (TB) recurrence among newly treated patients in Kashgar, Xinjiang, providing data support for optimizing recurrence intervention strategies in high-burden areas.

We analyzed 69 476 successfully treated new TB patients from 2016 to 2022 in Kashgar, with follow-up through 2023. Independent predictors were selected through multivariate logistic regression. Seven models (logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, multilayer perceptron, XGBoost, LightGBM, and elastic net) were developed and validated. The optimal model was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

Among 69 476 cases, 9 444 (13.59%) experienced recurrence by 2023. Fourteen independent predictors were identified. The seven models showed AUC values ranging from 0.705 to 0.762 in the training set, with the decision tree model performing best (AUC=0.762, 95%CI: 0.758-0.766) and demonstrating good calibration. SHAP analysis revealed sputum culture results at diagnosis, local TB burden, and treatment modality as the top three predictive factors.

The decision tree model based on routine surveillance data shows high predictive performance for TB recurrence, with interpretable features that can facilitate early identification of high-risk individuals in clinical practice.

To analyze the impact of BMI on the prevalence of chronic diseases among adult residents and provide theoretical reference for early prevention of chronic diseases.

A multi-stage stratified random sampling method was used to select residents in Shandong for questionnaire surveys. The questionnaire included basic information, quality of life, and chronic disease prevalence. The propensity score matching method was employed to examine the effect of BMI on chronic disease prevalence.

A total of 2 451 adult residents in Shandong were surveyed. When BMI < 18.5 kg/m², the impact of BMI on chronic disease prevalence was not statistically significant (P > 0.05). When BMI ≥ 24.0 kg/m², the average treatment effects of BMI on chronic disease prevalence were -0.134, -0.110, and -0.113 (P < 0.05), increasing the probability of chronic diseases by 11.0%-13.4%. The balance test showed that the standard errors of all variables decreased, and no covariates were statistically significant after matching (P > 0.05). The common support test indicated that both the treatment and control groups were within the common range and relatively symmetric, with almost no systematic differences after matching, demonstrating good matching quality.

BMI ≥ 24.0 kg/m² increases the probability of chronic diseases among residents. It is necessary to strengthen weight management and public awareness campaigns, expand coverage for key populations, clarify intergroup differences, and propose targeted health management strategies. The roles of the government, primary healthcare institutions, and family doctors should be fully utilized to improve chronic disease prevention and management, thereby enhancing residents’ quality of life.

To analyze the trends of low back pain (LBP) burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and project future trends through 2036.

Data on prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Joinpoint regression analyzed trends from 1990 to 2021, while Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling projected trends from 2022 to 2036.

From 1990 to 2021, while total LBP cases increased in China, age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and DALY rates showed overall declining trends. Females consistently bore higher burden than males. Projections indicate age-standardized incidence rates will increase for males but decrease for females by 2036.

China demonstrated reduced LBP burden indicators during 1990-2021, with persistently higher burden among females. Projections suggest diverging future trends between genders, with rising male incidence but declining female incidence.

To analyze the burden and trends of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in China from 1990 to 2021,providing reference for prevention and treatment strategies.

Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for ALL in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study database (GBD 2021). The Join point regression model was utilized to fit the trends over the years, identify significant inflection points, and calculate the average annual percentage of change (AAPC) from 1990 to 2021 to reflect changes in disease burden. The distribution and trends of ALL across different time periods, genders, and age groups in China were analyzed.

In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and standardized DALY rate for ALL in China were 3.64 per 100 000, 22.02 per 100 000, 1.36 per 100 000, and 74.06 per 100 000, respectively, with a higher burden in males than females. The ASIR and ASPR showed an upward trend, while the ASDR and DALY rates significantly decreased, with the gender disparity in disease burden becoming increasingly pronounced. After 2019, the incidence and prevalence rates in the 2-4 age group declined significantly, with the highest incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates observed in those under 1 year of age by 2021, while the highest mortality rate shifted from infants to the elderly.

The overall burden of ALL in China from 1990 to 2021 shows a downward trend, particularly notable in children, while the burden in adults has increased. There is a need to strengthen preventive measures for ALL among males and children while enhancing effective management of the high mortality rates in the elderly population.

To analyze the mortality rate and trend of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in China from 2005 to 2018 and predict its future trend, providing a basis for effective prevention and control.

NMSC mortality data from 2005 to 2018 were collected from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. The Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) to reflect temporal trends. An age-period-cohort model with intrinsic estimator algorithm was applied to analyze age, period, and cohort effects. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximation was employed to predict NMSC mortality trends in China from 2019 to 2035.

From 2005 to 2018, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of NMSC in China was 0.34 per 100 000, showing an upward trend with an AAPC of 5.6% (95%CI: 3.8%-7.4%). The ASMR was higher in males (0.41 per 100 000) than in females (0.26 per 100 000),but the increase was slightly faster in females (AAPC=6.2%). Rural areas had a higher ASMR (0.40 per 100 000) than urban areas (0.30 per 100 000), but the AAPC was only half that of urban areas. The mortality risk of NMSC increased with age. The cohort effect showed a declining trend in ASMR. The predicted ASMR of NMSC in China is expected to continue rising to 0.78 per 100 000(95%CI: 0.10-1.46 per 100 000) during 2019 and 2035.

The ASMR of NMSC in China exhibited an upward trend from 2005 to 2018, with variations by age, sex, and region. NMSC remains a public health concern requiring sustained attention.

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD) represent a critical prognostic factor for COPD patients, significantly impacting health outcomes and imposing substantial economic burdens on families and society.This review aims to summarize current knowledge on ECOPD epidemiology to inform prevention and control strategies.

We conducted a comprehensive literature review focusing on the epidemiological characteristics, risk factors, and preventive measures of ECOPD.

Global ECOPD prevalence shows a persistent upward trend with consistently high mortality rates. Significant variations exist across countries, time periods, and populations, influenced by multiple factors including environmental exposures, comorbidities, and healthcare accessibility. Key risk factors include smoking, air pollution, respiratory infections, and poor medication adherence. Effective preventive strategies encompass smoking cessation, vaccination programs, air quality improvement, and optimized disease management.

ECOPD remains a major public health challenge requiring urgent attention. Enhanced understanding of its epidemiological patterns and risk factors is crucial for developing targeted interventions to reduce disease burden and improve patient outcomes.

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Hubei from 2020 to 2024 and provide scientific evidence for subsequent prevention and control measures.

Using epidemiological history and clinical case data from the China CDC Information System, we analyzed influenza characteristics in Hubei during 2020 and 2024. Count data were compared using χ² tests.

Hubei reported 1 050 819 influenza cases (609 699 cases in 2023, 58.02%), including 377 576 influenza A (35.93%), 99 676 influenza B (9.49%), and 840 parainfluenza cases (0.08%). Influenza A predominated (χ²=530 018.166, P<0.001). Male cases (564 464, 53.72%) slightly outnumbered females (486 355, 46.28%) (χ²=5 806.006, P<0.001). Seasonal distribution showed winter (463 932 cases) > spring (376 247) > autumn (127 067) > summer (83 573) (χ²=395 402.793, P<0.001). Children aged 0 to 9 years were most affected (549 181 cases, χ²=1 358 132.202, P<0.001). Students (410 818 cases) and kindergarten children (193 027) showed highest incidence (χ²=8 079 748.599, P<0.001). Wuhan reported most cases (368 397), followed by Yichang (105 119)(χ²=2 800 000.000, P<0.001).

Influenza in Hubei exhibited distinct seasonality (winter-spring peaks), with 2023 seeing highest incidence. Children under 10 remain most vulnerable, warranting focused prevention in schools and childcare settings.

To compare the characteristics of deaths and disease burden of respiratory tuberculosis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends, providing evidence for formulating prevention and control policies.

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) were used to describe deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of respiratory tuberculosis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to assess trends. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed for prediction.

From 1990 to 2021,the number of respiratory tuberculosis deaths in China and globally was 37 300 and 1 162 800, respectively, with age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of 1.91/100 000 and 13.96/100 000, and AAPCs of -7.4 (95%CI: -7.8 to -7.1) and -3.3(95%CI: -3.5 to -3.2), respectively. DALYs were 1 375 500 person-years and 46 977 500 person-years, with age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) of 76.22/100 000 and 580.26/100 000, and AAPCs of -7.0 (95% CI: -7.2 to -6.8) and -3.3 (95% CI: -3.4 to-3.2), respectively. The death and disease burden were higher in males than females. From 2022 to 2036, ASMR (China: males-55.30%, females -62.50%; global: males -36.72%, females -37.50%) and ASDR (China: males -46.50%, females -44.82%;global: males -31.87%, females -32.95%) are projected to decline.

From 1990 to 2021, the ASMR and ASDR of respiratory tuberculosis declined in both China and globally, with a significantly higher disease burden in males. Over the next 15 years, ASMR and ASDR are expected to continue decreasing. Relevant authorities should sustain and optimize prevention and control measures to further reduce the disease burden and achieve more comprehensive disease control.

To investigate the genetic association between gestational duration and fetal mental disorders using Mendelian randomization (MR), and to explore the mediating role of brain functional networks in this pathway through two-step Mendelian randomization (TSMR).

Using gestational duration as the exposure and six mental disorders (autism spectrum disorder[ASD], anorexia nervosa [AN], schizophrenia, etc.) as outcomes, with 191 resting-state functional MRI traits as potential mediators, we analyzed publicly available GWAS summary data. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method, MR-Egger regression, and weighted median method were employed to estimate causal effects. TSMR was used to assess the mediating role of brain functional networks, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate robustness.

Gestational duration showed negative genetic associations with ASD (OR=0.58, 95% CI: 0.48-0.69), AN (OR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.89), and schizophrenia (OR=0.85, 95% CI: 0.74-0.96). Brain networks, including the salience, central executive, and default mode networks, partially mediated the genetic association between gestational duration and mental disorders, with mediation proportions ranging from 19.09% to 52.40%.

Longer gestational duration reduces the risk of mental disorders, and brain functional networks mediate this genetic association.