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  • Ye-si-tai MUHEIYAT, Wen-hui FU, Ha-li-mu-bie-ke NAZHAERBIEKE, Zhao-guo LAN, Wu-qi-er-jia-fu CAI-PI-LI-MA, Tian TIAN, Na XIE
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3873-3877.
    Objective

    To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of Hepatitis A virus (HAV) in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2023,providing a scientific basis for its prevention and control.

    Methods

    Descriptive epidemiological methods were employed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HAV reported in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2023 using data from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System.

    Results

    A total of 55 586 cases of HAV were reported in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 14.54 per 100 000. The incidence rate decreased from 31.19 per 100 000 in 2005 to 0.75 per 100 000 in 2023. The regions with the highest incidence rates were Kizilsu (31.45 per 100 000) and Hotan (24.55 per 100 000). The majority of cases were among scattered children (39.70%). The age group with the highest incidence was 0 to 15 years (36.08%). The gender ratio decreased to 1.00 by 2023.

    Conclusion

    Between 2005 and 2023, the prevention and control measures for HAV in Xinjiang were significantly effective. Continued efforts in vaccination and enhanced comprehensive prevention measures for children are necessary.

  • Chu-yao XIAO, Ting-ting LI, Ruo-nan FU, Yu YIN, Ying ZOU, Pei-sheng WANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3877-3883.
    Objective

    To analyze the application of the ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting pertussis incidence in Urumqi, providing a basis for assessing the epidemic trend of pertussis.

    Methods

    Monthly reported incidence data of pertussis in Urumqi from 2011 to 2021 were used to establish ARIMA and LSTM models. The incidence data from 2022 to 2023 were utilized to validate the predictive performance of the two models. The models’ performance was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the incidence of pertussis in 2024 was predicted.

    Results

    The incidence of pertussis in Urumqi from 2011 to 2023 showed an upward trend with seasonal variations. Additionally, a high incidence state of pertussis began in August 2023. Both the ARIMA and LSTM models demonstrated good fitting, although there were discrepancies in their predictions for July to December 2023. The overall predictive performance of the LSTM model (RMSE=32.34, MAE=11.41) was superior to that of the ARIMA model (RMSE=42.81, MAE=14.34). The LSTM model, which showed better validation results, predicted a continued increase in pertussis incidence for 2024.

    Conclusion

    The LSTM model provides a more accurate prediction of the pertussis incidence trend in Urumqi, offering valuable insights for monitoring and controlling the epidemic of pertussis.

  • Xue-fei SHI, Ya-ning ZHAO, Yan-mei QIN, Xiao-ying GU, Li-min QIAO, Ming-hui WANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3883-3889.
    Objective

    To investigate the potential categories of health literacy in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes and their relationship with glycemic control.

    Methods

    A convenience sampling method was employed to select 1 113 elderly patients with type 2 diabetes from the Affiliated Hospital of North China University of Science and Technology between September 2021 and August 2022. General demographic data and diabetes health literacy were assessed using questionnaires, including a diabetes health literacy scale. A latent profile analysis was conducted on the health literacy of elderly patients with type 2 diabetes, and glycated hemoglobin levels were measured. The relationship between the latent categories of health literacy and glycemic control was analyzed using χ2 tests and binary logistic regression.

    Results

    The health literacy levels of patients could be categorized into three latent categories: low willingness to improve (31.72%), moderate balanced type (31.35%), and high confidence coping type (36.93%). Propensity score matching successfully matched 283 pairs of subjects. Low willingness to improve health literacy was identified as a risk factor for poor glycemic control in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes (OR=2.238, 95%CI:1.355-3.696), while high confidence coping health literacy served as a promoting factor for glycemic control (OR=0.318,95%CI: 0.196-0.516).

    Conclusion

    High health literacy can facilitate glycemic control in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes, suggesting that targeted interventions should be developed for different health literacy populations.

  • Qing-qing REN, Xiao-ling LIANG, Wen-hao SONG, Hai-fen ZHANG, Xin-min DING, Wen-zhu SONG, Shu-fang SHI
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3889-3894.
    Objective

    To explore the association between social activities and hypertension in individuals aged ≥ 45 in China, providing new intervention strategies for the prevention and treatment of hypertension.

    Methods

    A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the fifth national survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2020.Demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and indicators of social activities of the study subjects were included. The association between seven types of social activities and hypertension among middle-aged and elderly individuals was analyzed using χ2 tests and multivariate logistic regression.

    Results

    A total of 19 213 middle-aged and elderly individuals were included, comprising 10 159 men and 9 054 women, with a median age of 63 years (ranging from 55 to 70 years). The prevalence of hypertension was 40.08% (7 702/19 213). Logistic regression analysis indicated that after adjusting for all confounding factors, visiting neighbors and socializing with friends (OR=1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.15, P=0.022) and participating in volunteer or charity activities (OR=1.23, 95%CI: 1.04-1.46, P=0.016) were positively associated with the risk of hypertension. Conversely, activities such as dancing, exercising, or practicing Qigong in parks or other venues were negatively associated with the risk of hypertension (OR=0.88, 95%CI: 0.78-1.00, P=0.044).

    Conclusion

    Participation in different social activities is associated with hypertension. It is recommended to encourage middle-aged and elderly individuals to actively engage in health-promoting social activities to reduce the risk of hypertension, thereby providing scientific guidance for achieving “Healthy China 2030”.

  • Run-xin LI, Hong-jian ZHANG, Xiao-tian LIU, Huan-xiang ZHANG, Feng JIANG, Qiu-hong YUE, Yi-lan LV, Qian-hui LU, Zi-xu LI, Hui-min QU, Bing ZHAO, Chong-jian WANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3894-3898.
    Objective

    To analyze the impact of breastfeeding on life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) among rural women.

    Methods

    A cohort study was conducted involving women aged 40 and above from rural Henan. Data on demographic characteristics, personal medical history, and breastfeeding history were collected through questionnaires. The European five-dimensional health scale (EQ-5D-5L) was used to assess the quality-of-life utility index and visual analog scale (VAS) scores. Multi-state life table method was employed to calculate LE and HLE from three dimensions: common chronic diseases, health status utility index, and VAS scores.

    Results

    Women with breastfeeding history had a lower prevalence of common chronic diseases (21.85% vs 23.46%). The average health status utility index and VAS scores were 0.94±0.12 and 76.85±15.26 for those with a breastfeeding history, compared to 0.93±0.15 and 76.09±17.97 for those without. In terms of common chronic diseases, women with breastfeeding history had HLE and LE at age 40 of 24.10 years and 44.36 years, respectively, which were 3.48 years and 3.23 years longer than those without breastfeeding history. In the utility index dimension, women with breastfeeding history had HLE and LE at age 40 of 35.96 years and 44.58 years, respectively, which were 4.08 years and 4.40 years longer than those without. In the VAS score dimension, HLE and LE at age 40 for women with breastfeeding history were 32.31 years and 46.36 years, respectively, which were 3.39 years and 3.75 years longer than those without. Among the three dimensions, in the utility index dimension, the highest HLE at age 40 was observed based on cumulative breastfeeding duration: ≤36 months (35.34 years), 37-60 months (35.87 years), and ≥61 months (36.34 years).

    Conclusion

    Breastfeeding is associated with longer HLE and LE among rural women, with those having a breastfeeding history enjoying greater HLE and LE. Increased cumulativebreastfeeding duration correlates with longer LE.

  • Hui-juan ZHAO, Qiao-juan YANG, Rong ZHANG, Wen-jing YAN
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3899-3905.
    Objective

    To develop a Knowledge, Attitude, and Behavior Scale for Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health and to conduct reliability and validity testing, providing a measurement tool for assessing adolescents’ knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding sexual and reproductive health.

    Methods

    Based on the Knowledge, Attitude, and Behavior theoretical framework, an initial scale was formed through literature review, expert meetings, and preliminary surveys. A convenience cluster sampling method was employed to include 347 middle school students who met the criteria for item analysis and reliability and validity testing, resulting in the formal version of the scale.

    Results

    The formal scale consists of three dimensions: knowledge, attitude, and behavior, with a total of 33 items. The expert authority coefficient score was 0.89, and Kendall’s W coefficient was 0.478. The content validity at the item level ranged from 0.82 to 1.00, while the content validity at the scale level was 0.93. Confirmatory factor analysis using Amos 24.0 yielded a model χ2/v of 1.831, RMSEA of 0.049, GFI of 0.842, CFI of 0.91,and PGFI of 0.739, indicating good model fit and structural validity. The overall Cronbach’s α was 0.914, with dimensionspecific Cronbach’s α values of 0.924, 0.767, and 0.741; the splithalf reliability of the total scale was 0.76. The testretest reliability correlation coefficient (r) for the total scale was 0.717 (P<0.001).

    Conclusion

    The Knowledge, Attitude, and Behavior Scale for Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health demonstrates good reliability and validity and can be used to assess adolescents’ knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding sexual and reproductive health.

  • Mi-le LIN, Hui PENG, Fei-fei YANG, Jun-lei XUE, Yan-fei ZHANG, Hong-jie YU, Fei-fei MA, Qian PENG, Ying WANG, Hui-jing SHI
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3905-3911.
    Objective

    To analyze the influencing factors of myopia in children and adolescents, providing references for precise myopia prevention.

    Methods

    A stratified cluster random sampling method was employed to select 1 660 students aged 9 to 18 from six schools in Jiading District, Shanghai, for vision testing and questionnaire surveys from September to October of 2021.The random forest model was utilized to rank the importance of myopia influencing factors, and the sliding window sequential forward selection method was applied for dimensionality reduction. The factors with the highest importance scores and the lowest average out-of-bag estimation error rates were included in a multifactorial logistic regression analysis model to estimate the direction and effect values of the influencing factors.

    Results

    The myopia rate among the 1 660 children and adolescents was 71.99%. The random forest model indicated that the average out-of-bag estimation error rate was minimized when the number of variables was six. When incorporated into the multifactorial logistic regression analysis model, the results showed that advancing educational stage (junior high: OR=5.191, 95%CI: 3.738-7.209; senior high: OR=6.989, 95%CI: 4.309-11.338), parental myopia (one parent myopic: OR=3.669, 95%CI: 2.723-4.943; both parents myopic: OR=5.231, 95%CI: 3.510-7.795), increased reading and writing duration (<1h: OR=12.192, 95%CI: 3.373-44.066; 1-2h: OR=11.985, 95%CI: 3.364-42.704; ≥2h:OR=10.547, 95%CI: 2.957-37.622), participation in extracurricular classes (<6 years: OR=3.114, 95%CI: 2.046-4.740; ≥6 years: OR=1.817, 95%CI: 1.351-2.444), and using only ceiling lights for reading and writing at home after dark (OR=2.921,95%CI: 2.009-4.248) were identified as risk factors for myopia. In contrast, a sleep duration of ≥8 hours (OR=0.383, 95%CI:0.264-0.557) was identified as a protective factor against myopia.

    Conclusion

    The prevalence of myopia among children and adolescents is high, and targeted measures should be implemented based on the identified influencing factors for myopia prevention and control.

  • Rui FU, Xi-yan ZHANG, Heng-kang GE, Shan-cai LUO, Li-ru CHEN, Jie YANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3911-3916.
    Objective

    To understand the epidemiological characteristics of chickenpox-related absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Huai’an city, providing reference for further improving chickenpox prevention and control in schools.

    Methods

    Descriptive epidemiological methods were employed to analyze data on chickenpox-related absenteeism collected from the Jiangsu Provincial Student Health Monitoring System for the 2018 to 2022 academic years. The circular distribution method was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of absenteeism due to chickenpox.

    Results

    The average annual rate of chickenpox-related absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Huai’an city from 2018 to 2022 was 26.23 per 100 000. The absenteeism rates varied between 11.96 (2021 academic year) and 70.84 (2020 academic year) (χ2=101 240.39, P < 0.01), with an average of 3.98 days absent per student. The absenteeism rate for boys was higher than that for girls (27.06 vs. 25.26, χ2=166.19, P < 0.01). Among different school types, the average absenteeism rate ranged from 4.30 (vocational high schools) to 39.97 (primary schools), with urban students exhibiting a higher average absenteeism rate compared to those in suburban areas (30.84 vs. 17.10, χ2=9 519.78, P < 0.01). A primary peak in absenteeism occurred from October to December in the first semester, while a secondary peak was observed from April to June in the second semester. Circular distribution method analysis revealed a significant seasonal concentration trend, with peak days occurring on November 26 and May 18, and peak periods spanning from October 29 to December 25 and from April 9 to June 26, respectively (Z values of 48 673.79 and 217.29, with P values < 0.01).

    Conclusion

    The rate of chickenpox-related absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Huai’an city is relatively high. Monitoring should focus on boys, primary schools, urban areas, and the two peak periods (October-December and April-June). The circular distribution method for analyzing seasonal characteristics of absenteeism due to chickenpox demonstrates good practicality and can provide data support for chickenpox prevention and control in schools.

  • Dan SONG, Qian-qian NIE, Zhi-chao HE, Gui-rong CHENG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3917-3923.
    Objective

    To investigate the relationship between physical and cognitive activities and cognitive function in different socioeconomic status (SES) populations, providing a basis for interventions targeting cognitive impairment in elderly individuals of varying SES.

    Methods

    Data were sourced from the Hubei Memory and Aging Cohort Study (HMACS), including physical examinations and cognitive assessments. SES was categorized into low, medium, and high groups based on education level, occupation, and income. Physical Activity (PA) and Cognitive Leisure Activity (CLA) were standardized through a comprehensive scoring system based on the type, duration, and frequency of activities. Chi-square tests or t-tests were used to analyze group differences, while multivariate logistic regression examined the association between SES and overall cognitive impairment as well as specific cognitive domains. General linear regression models analyzed the relationship between activity scores and cognitive function in elderly individuals across different SES groups.

    Results

    A total of 8 597 eligible participants aged ≥65 years were included in HMACS, with a mean age of 72.2 (±6.0) years, an average education level of 7.9 (±5.2) years, including 4 735 females (55.1%), 3 008 from rural areas (35.0%), and 2 155 currently unmarried individuals (25.2%). Among them, 1 553(18.1%) were classified as low SES, and 2 677 (31.1%) had cognitive impairment. The prevalence of cognitive impairment was 1.88 times (95%CI: 1.62-2.18) higher in the medium SES group and 3.61 times (95%CI: 2.92-4.46) higher in the low SESgroup compared to the high SES group. In the medium SES group, PA showed the strongest association with memory and attention functions (β=0.06, 95%CI: 0.02-0.11; β=0.08, 95%CI: 0.04-0.12, respectively). In the low SES group, CLA demonstrated the strongest associations with overall cognitive function, memory, language, attention, and processing speed compared to the high SES group, with respective β values of 0.20 (95%CI: 0.12-0.28) vs. 0.03 (95%CI: 0.01-0.05), 0.15 (95%CI: 0.06-0.24) vs.0.04 (95%CI: -0.01-0.10), 0.07 (95%CI: -0.03-0.16) vs. 0.02 (95%CI: -0.02-0.07), 0.15 (95%CI: 0.07-0.24) vs. 0.06(95%CI: 0.00-0.11), and 0.22 (95%CI: 0.08-0.36) vs. 0.04 (95%CI: -0.02-0.09). Additionally, the combination of PA and CLA in the low SES group showed the strongest associations with overall cognitive function, memory, language, attention, and processing speed compared to the high SES group, with β values of 0.29 (95%CI: 0.19 to 0.40) vs. 0.04 (95%CI: 0.00 to 0.07),0.14 (95%CI: 0.02 to 0.26) vs. 0.05 (95%CI: -0.03 to 0.13), 0.11 (95%CI: -0.01 to 0.23) vs. 0.05 (95%CI: -0.01 to 0.11), 0.17(95%CI: 0.07 to 0.28) vs. 0.09 (95%CI: 0.01 to 0.17), and 0.23 (95%CI: 0.04 to 0.41) vs. -0.02 (95%CI: -0.09 to 0.05).

    Conclusion

    Physical and cognitive activities have a more significant impact on improving cognitive function among elderly individuals with low socioeconomic status. Implementing CLA and combined PA with CLA in low SES populations shows promising cognitive improvement effects.

  • Yi-juan LV, Wan-ju TAO, Qing-hua WANG, Li YE, Ke ZHANG, Xu SU, Fei-qing WANG, Cong WANG, Hua SHI
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2024, 51(21): 3923-3928.
    Objective

    To analyze the financing and utilization of preventive service costs in Guizhou Province from 2016 to 2022, providing reference for improving the resilience and sustainability of preventive funding structures and optimizing the functional structure of preventive services.

    Methods

    Based on the System of Health Accounts 2011 (SHA2011), this study analyzes the preventive service costs in Guizhou Province from the dimensions of total preventive service costs, financing schemes, service functions, and institutional flows.

    Results

    The preventive service costs in Guizhou Province were 3.72 billion yuan in 2016, increasing to 10.056 billion yuan by 2022, with the proportion of these costs in recurrent health expenditures rising from 5.07% to 8.49%. In 2020, the proportion of expenditures on infectious disease prevention and control increased to 14.71%,while the shares for chronic disease management, child health services, and maternal health care decreased. Over the seven years, government programs and household health expenditures declined, while corporate financing significantly increased. The proportion of preventive service costs attributed to hospitals and grassroots medical institutions rose annually from 48.59% to 67.29%.

    Conclusion

    From 2016 to 2022, the preventive service costs and their share of recurrent health expenditures in Guizhou Province increased; however, the phenomenon of “less attention on prevention and much attention on treatment” remains evident. Hospitals, grassroots medical institutions, and public health agencies are the primary providers of various preventive services, reflecting a trend of “medical care supporting prevention”. The proportion of personal cash expenditures in preventive service costs gradually decreased, but government and social health funding remains insufficient, and the financing structure is vulnerable to short-term and long-term external factors.