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  • Xian-lin XIAO, Sheng LI
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3093-3098.
    Objective

    To explore the mediating roles of self-care ability and self-rated health between physical inactivity and depressive symptoms among elderly individuals.

    Methods

    Data from 8 279 participants (≥60 years) in the 2020 CHARLS database were analyzed using correlation and regression to explore the relationship between physical inactivity, self-care ability, self-rated health and depressive symptoms. The chain mediating effect model was used to analyze the multiple mediating effects.

    Results

    Depressive symptoms prevalence was 40.89% among people aged 60 and above. Physical inactivity (β=0.402, P<0.01), self-care ability (β=-0.186, P<0.001) and self-rated health (β=-1.724, P<0.001) directly predicted depressive symptoms. The simple mediation effects were 0.142 for self-care ability and 0.072 for self-rated health between physical inactivity and depressive symptoms, with a chain mediation effect of 0.056.

    Conclusion

    Self-care ability and self-rated health have a direct mediating effect and a chain mediating effect between physical inactivity and depressive symptoms in the elderly. Enhancing physical activity may improve body functional capacity, self-care ability and health, thereby reducing depressive symptoms risk.

  • Lin WANG, Jun-hua WANG, Yan HUANG, Ke-wei YANG, Hong CHEN, Bin-bing ZHANG, Min ZHANG, Shan LIU, Wen-yan LIANG, Chun-liu PAN
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3099-3104.
    Objective

    To fit and predict the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Guiyang City, assess whether the End TB Strategy target for 2035 (incidence <10 per 100 000 population) can be achieved, and provide a reference for relevant departments to optimize prevention and control measures.

    Methods

    Based on the anonymized tuberculosis case data from Guiyang City between 2010 and 2024, after excluding records with missing onset times and duplicate entries, a transmission dynamics model was constructed by integrating demographic and epidemiological data. Taking into account the latent period of tuberculosis, infection progression, and case detection, the Bayesian method was employed to estimate transmission parameters and predict incidence trends from 2025 to 2050. The effectiveness of various control measures was evaluated through parameter optimization strategies.

    Results

    The model achieved a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.02%, and an R2 of 0.86 in fitting the 2010—2019 data. Projections indicated that under current strategies, Guiyang City would fail to meet the 2035 TB control target. However, with optimized interventions, the target could be achieved two years ahead of schedule.

    Conclusion

    Enhancing active case detection and preventive treatment for latent TB infections could enable Guiyang City to reach the End TB Strategy’s 2035 goal.

  • Wei DING, Gao-ling WANG, Ruo-yan TANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3105-3110.
    Objective

    To analyze the current status and changing trends of ischemic stroke burden attributable to high LDL-C in China from 1990 to 2021. By integrating the prediction results for the next decade, this research offers actionable insights for designing evidence-based interventions targeting ischemic stroke prevention and management in China.

    Methods

    Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 database and screened for Chinese regions, causes of ischemic stroke deaths, and high LDL-C risk factors. The disease burden was measured using indicators such as mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates, and systematically analyzed the trends using the Joinpoint regression model. The autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the standardized mortality and standardized DALY rates of ischemic stroke attributable to high LDL-C in China from 2022 to 2031.

    Results

    The overall trend of ischemic stroke rates attributable to high LDL-C in the Chinese population was declining between 1990 and 2021, with mean annual percentage changes (AAPC) of-0.42% (95% CI: -0.66%~-0.18%, P<0.05) and -0.46% (95% CI: -0.63%~-0.29%, P<0.05), with significant age and sex disparities observed. According to the ARIMA model, China’s standardized mortality and DALY rates linked to elevated LDL-C would decline to 15.01 per 100 000 population and 319.00 per 100 000 population, respectively, by 2031.

    Conclusion

    The disease burden of ischemic stroke attributable to high LDL-C remains substantial in China, and the interventions on LDL-C levels in the priority populations of men and elderly ischemic stroke patients should be reinforced, and prevention and control strategies as well as institutional support should be improved for the purpose of alleviating the disease burden of ischemic stroke more effectively.

  • Nan LI, Li-sha XU, Ya-nan CUI, Yan-yan SHI, Qing GUO, Lian-chen FU
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3111-3115.
    Objective

    To analyze the spatial-temporal clustering of mumps during periods with different immunization strategies in Tai’an.

    Methods

    The immunization strategy for MuCV from 2009 to 2024 was divided into 1-dose period (2009-2013), 2-dose early period (2014-May 2020), and 2-dose later period (June 2020-2024). Mumps incidence data from 2009 to 2024 were obtained from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System for descriptive epidemiological, trend analysis and spatial-temporal clustering analysis during different immunization strategy periods.

    Results

    The annual average incidence rate of mumps in Tai’an from 2009 to 2024 showed a general downward trend during the three immunization periods (χ2trend=4 273.971, P<0.001), and there were statistically significant differences (χ2=4 977.100, P<0.001). The trend surface analysis showed that it increased first and then decreased from west to east during three immunization periods. From north to south, the rate decreased and then increased during the 1-dose period, whereas a generally downward trend was observed during the 2-dose period. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that mumps exhibited significant spatial clustering (P<0.001) during three immunization periods. The local autocorrelation analysis showed that the "High-High" clusters were predominantly concentrated in the townships/subdistricts covered by Taishan District, Daiyue District, Mount Tai Scenic Area, and Ningyang County, while the "Low-Low" clusters were mainly distributed in those under Feicheng City and Xintai City during the three immunization periods. The spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that the main clusters were predominantly located in townships/subdistricts covered by Ningyang County, Taishan District, Daiyue District, and the Mount Tai Scenic Area during the three immunization periods, and this was basically consistent with the "high-high" clusters identified by the local spatial autocorrelation analysis.

    Conclusion

    The incidence of mumps during different immunization strategy periods exhibited spatial-temporal clustering in Tai’an City. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and early warning for mumps in high-priority regions.

  • Ling-Jie OUYANG, Lin-Yan XIE, Lei YANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3116-3123.
    Objective

    To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in China from 2005 to 2018 and to predict future incidence trends, thereby providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of NMSC.

    Methods

    Incidence data for NMSC from 2005 to 2018 were obtained from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Reports. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) to reflect time trends. An age-period-cohort model based on the intrinsic estimator algorithm was employed to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model using integrated nested Laplace approximation was applied to predict future trends.

    Results

    From 2005 to 2018, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of NMSC in China was 1.33 per 100 000, showing an upward trend, with an AAPC of 3.7% (95% CI: 2.5%-4.9%). The ASIR was higher in males (1.46/100 000) than in females (1.21/100 000), although the increase was faster in females (AAPC = 8.8%). The incidence rate in urban areas (1.44/100 000) was higher than in rural areas (1.15/100 000). The risk of NMSC incidence increased with age. The cohort effect showed a downward trend in ASIR. Predictions suggested that the ASIR of NMSC in China will continue to rise, reaching 2.52/100 000 by 2030 (95%CI: 0.22/100 000-4.83/100 000), though future trends remain uncertain.

    Conclusion

    From 2005 to 2018, the ASIR of NMSC in China showed a rising trend, with significant differences across age, sex, and regions. It is recommended to strengthen targeted prevention and health education efforts in different areas to enhance public awareness of NMSC.

  • Qian ZHANG, Qian LI, Xiao-chen LI, Zong-hao WANG, Yi-hang YAO, Feng MA, Zhi-nan ZHAO
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3124-3129.
    Objective

    To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of malignancy deaths and the changing patterns of potential life loss in Hengshui City from 2015 to 2024, providing data support for the formulation of malignancy prevention and control strategies.

    Methods

    We collected data on malignancy deaths among registered residents in Hengshui City, calculated the standardized mortality rates for total, gender, age, and malignancy categories, and analyzed the potential life loss and trends for the top four leading causes of malignancy deaths.

    Results

    The standardized mortality rates for malignancy among registered residents in Hengshui City from 2015 to 2024 were 81.05/100 000, 72.89/100 000, 92.47/100 000, 97.23/100 000, 105.47/100 000, 97.66/100 000, 115.93/100 000, 116.78/100 000, 125.23/100 000, and 125.87/100 000, showing an upward trend (AAPC=6.20%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality rates for males were higher than those for females (all P<0.05). The top four leading causes of malignancy deaths among registered residents in Hengshui City were lung cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer, accounting for 26.51%, 11.34%, 11.57%, and 4.64% of deaths, respectively. The standardized mortality rates for all four malignancies showed an upward trend, with AAPC values of 11.01%, 15.17%, 3.35%, and 9.43%, respectively (all P<0.05). The proportions of malignancies, lung cancer, liver cancer, and stomach cancer in the 70-79 age group showed a significant upward trend for both males and females, and the proportion was the highest. The average age at death from malignancies, lung cancer, liver cancer, and stomach cancer showed a slight upward trend (AAPC: 0.46%, 0.47%, 0.54%, 0.46%, respectively; P<0.05), while the trend in the average age at death from colorectal cancer was not significant. Among the top four leading causes of malignancy deaths, lung cancer had the highest mean potential life loss (PYLL: 12 123.00 person-years), liver cancer had the highest average potential life loss (AYLL: 15.97 years), and lung cancer had the highest potential life loss rate (PYLLR: 2.80‰). Based on the average potential life loss, the order of life loss was liver cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, and stomach cancer.

    Conclusion

    The standardized mortality rates for different types of malignancies showed an upward trend, with significantly higher rates for males than females. The proportion of deaths occurring in the 70-79 age group rose significantly, whereas that in the 40-49 age group declined. AYLL from malignant tumors showed an overall downward trend, while the PYLLR for lung, liver, and colorectal cancer increased, suggesting a growing impact on the life expectancy of residents with Hengshui household registration. These trends should be utilized to adjust malignancy prevention and control measures accordingly.

  • Shu-fang MEI, Xiu-jun LIU, Ya-ni HU, Si-jing CHEN, Wen-cai CHEN
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3130-3135.
    Objective

    To analyze the death status and life loss of patients with severe mental disorders in Wuhan during the period from 2018 to 2022, in order to provide references for formulating bailout management policy for patients with severe mental disorders.

    Methods

    The death data on gender, age, diagnosis, cause of death, and other related information were obtained from the National Information System for Severe Mental Disorders during 2018—2022. Excel 2022 and SPSS 21.0 software were applied to analyze the death characteristics, death cause distribution and mortality. Years of life lost (YLL) and related indicators were used to analyze the life expectancy reduction due to severe mental disorders.

    Results

    From 2018 to 2022, a total of 3 557 patients with severe mental disorders died in Wuhan, most of them had schizophrenia (2 541 cases, 71.44%). There were more male patients (2 019 cases, 56.76%) than female patients (1 538 cases, 43.24%). The average age of death was 58.06±15.21 years, mainly concentrated in the elderly population over 60 years old (1 719 cases, 48.33%). Significant differences in mortality rates were observed between 2018 and 2022(χ2=58.678, P<0.001), with statistically significant differences found only among patients with schizophrenia (χ2=45.600, P<0.001) and those with mental retardation accompanied by mental disorders (χ2=16.120, P=0.003). Physical diseases were the leading cause of death (2 193 cases, 61.65%). For patients aged 1-69 years, all causes of death resulted in 83 380.75 person-years of potential years of life lost (PYLL), an average years of life lost (AYLL) of 30.71 years, and a potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR) of 173.89%. The greatest total loss of life was caused by schizophrenia, while the highest AYLL was observed for epilepsy with mental disorders (34.08 years).

    Conclusion

    Severe mental disorders are important diseases that cause life loss, and combined physical diseases are the main cause of death for patients in Wuhan from 2018 to 2022. It is suggested that we should pay more attention to chronic disease management of patients with severe mental disorders, strengthen bailout, and take multiple measures to reduce the risk of death of patients.

  • Yu-hua ZHANG, Yan-yan WANG, Jin-heng ZENG, Lan LIU, Yan LI, Ping-sheng GAN, Wei-wei ZHANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3136-3141.
    Objective

    To assess the internal exposure level of pentachlorophenol (PCP) among residents of traditional agricultural production areas in Guangzhou and analyze its possible influencing factors.

    Methods

    From June to August 2023, a two-stage random sampling method was used to select village/neighborhood committees and households in a town in a traditional agricultural production area of Guangzhou. All eligible permanent residents older than 6 years from the selected households were selected as the research subjects. Questionnaire survey, physical examination and urine sample collection were carried out on a household basis. The concentration of PCP in urine was detected by headspace solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatography mass spectrometry, and the health risk of residents exposed to PCP was evaluated. Multiple linear regression model was used to analyze the possible influencing factors of urinary PCP exposure.

    Results

    The actual effective sample size of this study was 284, aged 7-85 years. The detection rate of PCP in urine was 92.3% (262/284), and the detection value ranged from <LOD to 18.010 μg/L. The median urinary concentrations of pentachlorophenol for non-creatinine-adjusted and creatinine-adjusted were 0.625 μg/L and 0.611 μg/g creatinine, respectively. The median exposure of residents to PCP based on creatinine-corrected urinary PCP concentrations was 0.013 μg/(kg·BW·d) and the maximum exposure was 0.735 μg/(kg·BW·d), lower than the reference dose of 5 μg/(kg·BW·d) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Multiple regression analysis found higher urinary PCP exposure in residents with low education (GM ratio=0.549, 95% CI: 0.339-0.890), long outdoor activities (GM ratio=1.393, 95% CI: 1.005-1.931) and pets at home (GMratio=0.674, 95% CI: 0.457-0.995), and lower urinary PCP levels were in residents with low BMI (GM ratio=0.758, 95% CI: 0.602-0.953).

    Conclusion

    The 284 residents in traditional agricultural production areas of Guangzhou were generally exposed to PCP, but the level of internal exposure posed an acceptable risk to their health.Educational level, BMI, outdoor activity time, and keeping pets at home were factors that affected the level of urinary PCP exposure.

  • Zi-xuan WEN, Qing DUAN, Yi-xin ZHANG, Rui-qing MA, Yu-wei ZHANG, Wen-gui ZHENG, Cheng-xi SUN, Xiao-lin JIANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3142-3148.
    Objective

    To clarify the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of the incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning in Shandong Province, to reveal the meteorological driving factors behind it, and to provide reference for its scientific prevention and control.

    Methods

    Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning incident reports were collected through the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System Public Health Emergency Reporting Management Information System. Descriptive analysis was used to study the prevalence characteristics of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal scanning analysis were performed to explore spatio-temporal aggregation using ArcGIS 10.7 and SaTScan 10.1.2 software, respectively. The influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning was assessed using an optimal parameter geographical detector.

    Results

    A total of 12 088 cases of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning were reported in Shandong Province from 2019 to 2023, with peak incidence from November to March of the next year each year, and middle-aged and older populations people as the main high-risk groups. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed spatial clustering of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning incidence rates in both 2020—2022(P<0.05). The southern part of Shandong Province was gradually developing into a new hot spot. Spatio-temporal scanning analysis detected five aggregation zones, of which the primary aggregation zone was mainly concentrated in the northern part of Shandong Province (Nov 2019—Mar 2021, LLR=2 003.71, P<0.001). The results of the optimal parameter geographical detector showed that relative humidity and barometric pressure were important meteorological factors affecting morbidity, with the largest interaction between relative humidity and wind speed.

    Conclusion

    Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning in Shandong Province showed seasonal spatiotemporal clustering. It is recommended to strengthen the winter and spring health education work for middle-aged and older populations and other high-risk groups. At the same time, disease prevention and control organizations at all levels should establish good information communication with meteorological and propaganda departments. Early warning of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning accidents in key endemic areas such as northern Shandong Province and southern Shandong Province should be strengthened through these initiatives.

  • Xian-wei ZHANG, Xiao-yang WANG, Feng-qin LI, Sai-sai ZHAO, Zhi-ying SUN, Ke XU, Zhong-hui LIU
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(17): 3149-3153.
    Objective

    To investigate the relationships between different dimensions of biological rhythm disorders, depression and anxiety symptoms among adolescents, and to identify the key dimensions that have a greater impact on mental health, providing a basis for developing targeted interventions.

    Methods

    Conducted from September to November 2023 in Tianjin, this study recruited middle school students from urban and suburban areas using convenience and stratified cluster sampling methods, yielding 3 787 valid questionnaires. The Self-rating Questionnaire of Biological Rhythm Disorders for Adolescents (SQBRDA), the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) were employed to assess biological rhythm disorders, depression, and anxiety symptoms, respectively. Network analysis was utilized to examine the association strengths between dimensions and to calculate centrality indices to pinpoint key nodes.

    Results

    Activity rhythms showed higher centrality in the network (0.436), the edge weight between decreased interest and low mood was the largest in the depression symptom subnetwork (0.319), and the edge weight between persistent worry and excessive worry was the largest in the anxiety symptom subnetwork (0.446). In the biological rhythm subnetwork, the edge weight between activity rhythms and electronic product use rhythms was the largest (0.566). Females had stronger associations in the depression symptom network and the biological rhythm disorder network (0.194).

    Conclusion

    The study demonstrates a complex correlation network between adolescent biological rhythm disorders, depression and anxiety symptoms, especially activity rhythm and electronic product use rhythm.