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  • Hao-miao YU, Ya-jie MA, Kai-lin WANG, Xiao-xiao DU, Hao ZHANG, Wen-li DIAO
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(11): 2096-2100.
    Objective

    To understand the burden of foodborne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Liaoning Province and to clarify the risk associated with different types of food, thereby assisting in foodborne disease prevention efforts.

    Methods

    Using surveillance data of foodborne disease cases from 2014 to 2023 in Liaoning Province, the population level of foodborne diseases burden caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus was estimated using the disease burden pyramid model. The main food types contributing to Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections were also classified by attributable risk.

    Results

    Based on active surveillance data from sentinel hospitals, the multiple factor for Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections was found to be 86.50,indicating that for every reported case, approximately 87 cases occurred within the coverage area of the sentinel monitoring hospitals. Utilizing provincial case data, the multiple factor was 428.37 (95% CI: 424.05-432.62), suggesting that for each reported case, around 428 cases occurred across the province. It was estimated that from 2014 to 2023, there were a total of 440 448 (95% CI: 421 202-460 607) cases of Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections in Liaoning Province, with an annual incidence rate of approximately 103.41 per 100 000 people (95% CI: 98.85-108.11). Risk classification for various food items indicated that seafood posed the highest risk, accounting for 50.20% of infections, with shellfish being the highest-risk food type, followed by shrimp and watermelon.

    Conclusion

    Based on the multiple factor; it can be concluded that the burden of Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections in Liaoning Province is slightly higher than in other coastal regions. Seafood, particularly shellfish, is the primary cause of foodborne diseases associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Liaoning Province. Continued enhancement of prevention and education efforts targeting key populations and regions is necessary to guide residents in the proper consumption of seafood, as well as to improve disease burden assessment work.

  • Yan XU, Qiang CHEN, Si QIN, Yun WU, Mei LI, Xiang SUN, Hong-xiong GUO, Zhi-guo WANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(11): 1947-1951.
    Objective

    To describe the epidemic characteristics of pertussis in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023 and to explore the feasibility of using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting pertussis incidence in the province.

    Methods

    Epidemiological characteristics of pertussis cases collected for this study were analyzed. Data from January 2011 to June 2023 were used as the training set to construct the ARIMA model, which was then utilized to predict the incidence trend of pertussis from July 2023 to December 2024, thereby evaluating the model’s predictive performance.

    Results

    A total of 1 970 pertussis cases were reported in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023, with an annual incidence rate of 0.19 per 100 000. The number of reported male cases exceeded that of female cases, yielding a sex ratio of 1.08:1. Most cases occurred in infants under one year of age (52.2%, 1 049/1 970), with 83.5% of these infants being under six months old (876/1 049). Pertussis exhibited a seasonal peak during spring and summer, with the highest incidence observed in April. The ARIMA (1,1,3) (0,1,2)12 model was identified as the optimal predictive model for this study, showing a close alignment between the model-fitted incidence trend from 2011 to 2023 and the actual incidence trend. Additionally, the actual monthly incidence from July to December 2023 fell within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values.

    Conclusion

    This model effectively fits the incidence of pertussis in Jiangsu Province and holds practical value for short-term prediction and analysis of pertussis in the region.

  • Xu-hui LIU, Ling ZHANG, Fei LI, Zhi-ru GUO, Yi-ning LIU, Bin YI, Wen-ling WANG, Yu-xia JIN, Yan-xia WANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(11): 1921-1927.
    Objective

    To investigate the association between early pregnancy blood routine indicators and fasting blood glucose (FPG) levels with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and their predictive value.

    Methods

    A total of 1 422 early pregnant women enrolled in a prospective dynamic birth cohort at Gansu Provincial Maternal and Child Health Hospital from 2018 to 2022 were included. Baseline data and early pregnancy laboratory indicators were collected, and GDM occurrence was followed up and recorded. Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between early pregnancy white blood cell count (WBC),lymphocyte count (LYMPH), hemoglobin (HGB), and FPG levels with the confirmed GDM outcome. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was conducted to investigate whether there was a nonlinear relationship between WBC, FPG, and GDM. Additionally, subgroups were analyzed based on age, parity, and other factors. Finally, the predictive value of various early pregnancy indicators for GDM was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

    Results

    Among the 1 422 early pregnant women, 154 developed GDM in mid-pregnancy. After adjusting for covariates such as age, pre-pregnancy BMI, and parity, logistic regression analysis revealed that the risk of developing GDM for the highest quartile levels of WBC, LYMPH, HGB, and FPG was 1.774 times (95%CI: 1.088-2.893), 1.712 times (95%CI: 1.035-2.833), 1.597 times (95%CI: 1.004-2.555), and 6.459 times (95%CI: 3.612-11.151) that of the lowest quartile group, respectively, with all differences being statistically significant (P<0.05). RCS analysis indicated a positive linear dose-response relationship between early pregnancy WBC, FPG, and the risk of GDM. In subgroup analysis, overweight and obese women showed an increased risk of GDM with elevated early pregnancy WBC (OR=1.212,95%CI: 1.106-1.445) and FPG (OR=6.758, 95%CI: 3.407-14.989). The combination of early pregnancy WBC, FPG, HGB, age, and pre-pregnancy BMI provided the best predictive value for GDM (AUC=0.736, 95%CI: 0.695-0.776).

    Conclusion

    Clinical practitioners should focus on early pregnancy WBC and FPG levels, as well as the conditions of advanced maternal age and overweight/obesity, to implement timely health interventions for primary prevention of GDM.

  • Xin-hui XU, Gui-ying CAO, Jia LI, Zhong CHEN, Ren-jun GU, Jing HU, Jian-ping XIE, Hong-mei WANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(11): 1928-1934.
    Objective

    To analyze the current status of perceived HIV/AIDS-related stress among elderly individuals living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and its influencing factors, and to explore the mediating role of psychological resilience between social support and HIV/AIDS-related stress.

    Methods

    A convenience sampling method was employed to include 405 elderly PLWHA from the Infectious Diseases and Immunology Department of Changsha Infectious Disease Hospital between January and February 2024. The on-site questionnaire included the Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS), the 10-item Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC-10), the Chinese HIV/AIDS Stress Scale (CSS-HIV), as well as demographic and disease characteristic information. Descriptive analysis, univariate analysis, and multiple stepwise linear regression were used to analyze the current status and influencing factors of HIV/AIDS-related stress; mediation analysis was conducted to explore the mediating effect of psychological resilience on HIV/AIDS-related stress.

    Results

    The total score for HIV/AIDS-related stress among elderly PLWHA was 24.84±14.01, with emotional stress scoring 5.91±5.98,social stress 14.23±6.21, and instrumental stress 4.71±4.74. Factors influencing HIV/AIDS-related stress included being retired or engaged in farming, comorbidities, levels of social support, and psychological resilience (P<0.05). Psychological resilience showed a partial mediating effect in the relationship between social support and HIV/AIDS-related stress, accounting for 40.81% of the mediation effect.

    Conclusion

    Psychological resilience partially mediates the impact of social support on HIV/AIDS-related stress among elderly PLWHA. Interventions aimed at improving the status of social support and enhancing the psychological resilience of patients may help alleviate HIV/AIDS-related stress, thereby reducing their psychological burden and suffering.

  • Hui LIU, Ni SANG, Yi-nan WANG, Qiao-ling YANG, Qiao LIU, Lu HAN, Li CHENG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(11): 1941-1946.
    Objective

    To construct and validate a nomogram model for sarcopenia in Chinese elderly individuals.

    Methods

    Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011 and 2015 were utilized, randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. LASSO regression was employed to select potential predictive variables, and Logistic regression was used to determine the final predictive variables, leading to the construction of the nomogram. The model’s predictive performance, calibration, and clinical validity were evaluated through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Leeshawn test, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

    Results

    A total of 1 320 elderly individuals without sarcopenia at baseline were included, and after a 4-year follow-up, 161 individuals (12.2%) developed sarcopenia. LASSO regression identified 10 potential predictive variables, while Logistic regression analysis indicated that age and social isolation were risk factors, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.086 (95%CI: 1.049-1.125) and 1.696 (95%CI: 1.114-2.582), respectively. Social interaction (SI) was identified as a protective factor (OR=0.986, 95%CI: 0.973-0.999). Compared to a body roundness index (BRI) ≤ 3.00, higher BRI levels were associated with lower risk: ORs (95%CI) for >3.00-3.74, >3.74-4.51, >4.51-5.47, and >5.47 were 0.529 (0.284-0.988), 0.315 (0.164-0.606), 0.128 (0.061-0.270), and 0.174 (0.087-0.347),respectively. Based on these findings, a nomogram was constructed, with AUCs of 0.734 and 0.723 for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating good model discrimination. The Hosmer-Leeshawn test demonstrated good model fit, and the calibration curve closely matched the ideal curve. Decision curve analysis suggested that the model possesses good clinical efficacy.

    Conclusion

    The risk of sarcopenia is relatively high among Chinese elderly individuals, and the nomogram model constructed based on age, SI, social isolation, and BRI can effectively predict the risk of its occurrence.

  • Nan YANG, Xin-yue HAN, ’JI Zhuo-ma DI, Meng-jie HU, Xin CHEN, Xia JIANG, Lu LONG, Jia-qiang LIAO, Meng-yu FAN, Chuan WANG, Liang LV, Tian-pei MA, Tao ZHANG, Jia-yuan LI, Ya-xin LI, Research Group on Health Aging and Integration of Major Chronic Disease Prevention, West China Hospital of Sichuan University
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(11): 1952-1956.
    Objective

    To explore the association between overt proteinuria (OP) and moderately reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (MG) in relation to the incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD).

    Methods

    The study targeted elderly individuals (aged ≥60 years) who completed at least two national basic public health service health examinations at a community health service center in Chengdu from 2017 to 2022. A total of 4 316 subjects were categorized into four groups based on the presence or absence of OP and MG: no OP no MG (NP[MG-]), OP no MG (OP[MG-]), no OP with MG (NP[MG+]),and OP with MG (OP[MG+]). An intrinsic time-dependent Cox analysis was conducted to evaluate the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria, individually or in combination, with the risk of CAD.

    Results

    The study included 4 316 subjects with a median follow-up time of 6.25 years, during which 419 developed new cases of CAD. The results indicated that compared to the group with both indicators negative, the risk of CAD increased by 15% (HR=1.15, 95% CI: 0.88-1.41) for those with moderately reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (MG+), by 14% (HR=1.14, 95% CI: 0.76-1.51) for those with overt proteinuria (OP), and by 93% (HR=1.93, 95% CI: 1.50-2.37) for those with both indicators positive (OP[MG+]). The combined use of both indicators demonstrated a superior discriminatory effect on CAD risk compared to the use of either indicator alone.

    Conclusion

    Routine screening for estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria in the elderly population is recommended, as the combined assessment of both indicators is more effective in identifying individuals at high risk for coronary artery disease.

  • Yu-yuan ZHOU, Jun-lin LI, Shu-zhen ZHU, Ting ZHOU, Jun-feng QI, Xiao-jie SUN
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(11): 1935-1940.
    Objective

    To analyze the prevalence and influencing factors of different obesity metabolic phenotypes in middle-aged and elderly populations in Hubei Province, aiming to provide scientific reference and decision-making basis for early prevention and intervention of obesity-related diseases.

    Methods

    A population involved in the “National Cardiovascular Disease High-risk Population Early Screening and Comprehensive Intervention Project” from January 2016 to December 2019 in Hubei Province was selected to analyze the prevalence and epidemiological characteristics of different obesity metabolic phenotypes and to explore the influencing factors of obesity metabolic phenotypes in middle-aged and elderly populations in Hubei.

    Results

    A total of 112 270 participants were included in this study. The prevalence rates of metabolically healthy overweight or obese, metabolically unhealthy normal weight, and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obese were 15.78%, 21.16%, and 42.82%, respectively. The results of the unordered multinomial logistic regression showed that, compared to the metabolically healthy normal weight group, living in rural areas (OR=1.08, 95%CI: 1.03-1.13; OR=1.21, 95%CI: 1.16-1.25), being in the older age group (aged 65 and above, OR=3.39,95%CI: 3.15-3.64; OR=3.31, 95%CI: 3.12-3.52), being male (OR=1.22, 95%CI: 1.16-1.29; OR=1.17, 95%CI: 1.12-1.22), and alcohol consumption (OR=1.15, 95%CI: 1.08-1.23; OR=1.14, 95%CI: 1.07-1.20) were associated with an increased risk of being metabolically healthy overweight or obese, metabolically unhealthy normal weight, and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obese.Higher education level (high school or above, OR=0.87, 95%CI: 0.84-0.92), higher household annual income (≥50 000 yuan, OR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.76-0.86), and smoking (OR=0.67, 95%CI: 0.63-0.70) were associated with a decreased risk of being metabolically unhealthy overweight or obese (all P < 0.01).

    Conclusion

    The prevalence of metabolically unhealthy overweight or obesity is high in Hubei Province, and it is essential to strengthen prevention and control efforts, particularly targeting older males in rural areas, those with low income, low education levels, and individuals with alcohol consumption habits.

  • Shu-yun WANG, Lan LAN, Lin LIN, Zheng WANG, Hui-han ZHAO, Ying ZHANG, Lin LIN, Qi-ming FENG, Zhao-quan HUANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(10): 1824-1830.
    Objective

    To measure the workload of primary public health services in rural township health centers, providing empirical evidence for the healthy development of the rural medical and health system.

    Methods

    A multi-stage stratified random sampling method was employed to select 50 township health centers in Guangxi. Data related to primary public health services and primary medical services were collected, and the workload of primary public health services was analyzed using the equivalent method.

    Results

    The Pearson correlation coefficient between the total equivalent value of primary public health services and the number of permanent residents served was r=0.782, P<0.05; the coefficient of variation for the total equivalent value of different types of primary public health services was F=51.061, P<0.05; the coefficient of variation for the unit equivalent value of resident health records established in different regions was F=2.836, P<0.05, and for the unit equivalent value of health and family planning supervision and coordination services in different regions was F=6.346, P<0.05.

    Conclusion

    The total value of primary public health services is strongly positively correlated with the number of permanent residents served. There is a significant difference in the total workload of different types of primary public health services. There are differences in the work efficiency of units providing resident health record establishment and health and family planning supervision and coordination services in different regions.

  • Wan-min SHEN, Da-peng WANG, Jia-jun JIANG, jie JIAN, Rui LIN, Yang-jing LIU, Yu ZHANG, Min SHE, Li ZHANG, Xiang-shi YUAN, Shi-an LONG, Lu MA
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(10): 1902-1908.
    Objective

    To analyze the molecular transmission network characteristics and drug resistance of newly reported human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infected individuals in Guiyang City, to provide a basis for epidemic trends and preventive and control measures.

    Methods

    Blood samples and demographic information of newly reported HIV-1 infected individuals who did not receive antiviral therapy in Guiyang City from 2021 to 2023 were collected. The obtained pol region gene sequences were uploaded to the Stanford University HIV drug resistance database for genotype and drug resistance analysis, and molecular transmission network was constructed based on the optimal gene distance (d=1.5%) and analyzed for factors influencing entry into the network.

    Results

    A total of 171 samples were collected, and 123 (71.93%) were successfully amplified to obtain valid sequences. Six genotypes were found, mainly CRF07_BC (54.5%, 67/123) and CRF01_AE (24.4%, 30/123). A total of 38 sequences were integrated into the network, with an integration rate of 30.89%. 13 molecular clusters were formed, and the number of cases in the clusters ranged from 2 to 9. Multivariate Logistic regression results showed that heterosexual transmission, CRF07_BC and CRF01_AE were more likely to enter the network(P<0.05). CRF07_BC in Chongqing, Guangxi, Yunnan and Guiyang had cross-regional transmission. The drug resistance rate of 123 samples before treatment was 17.07% (21/123), the drug resistance rates were 7.32% for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 3.25% for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 3.25% for protease inhibitors (PIs), and four samples showed dual drug resistance.

    Conclusion

    The genotypes of newly reported HIV-1 infected individuals in Guiyang were mainly CRF07_BC and CRF01_AE. CRF07_BC is closely related to Chongqing and Guangxi. The drug resistance rate of HIV-1 before treatment was high. In the future, we should continue to build molecular transmission networks for long-term monitoring of the area, cooperate with neighboring provinces and cities to take effective AIDS prevention and control measures to further curb the transmission and spread of the virus.

  • Xin-tong JIANG, Ying ZHANG, Ping-yu WANG
    Modern Preventive Medicine. 2025, 52(10): 1849-1853.
    Objective

    To understand the current situation of self-rated health among older adults, to analyze the influence of good childhood traits on older adults' self-rated health, and to make suggestions for factors with high influence to promote the improvement of health in the whole society.

    Methods

    Using data from the Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS), select data for individuals aged≥60, with self-rated health as the dependent variable. Independent variables include age, gender, smoking, drinking, household registration, marital status, education levels, working status, medical insurance, health status before the age of 14, leadership spirit before the age of 14, and adventurous spirit before the age of 14. Employ the χ2 test and binary logistic regression to analyze the influencing factors of self-rated health in the elderly. Additionally, use a random forest model to rank the importance of these influencing factors.

    Results

    Smoking, drinking, higher education levels, being employed, good health status before the age of 14, good leadership spirit before the age of 14, and good adventurous spirit before the age of 14 all have OR values greater than 1 and P<0.05, suggesting they may be protective factors for elderly self-rated health. In contrast, being female and living in rural areas have OR values less than 1 and P<0.05, suggesting they may be risk factors for elderly self-rated health. The top three influencing factors are health status before the age of 14, leadership spirit, and adventurous spirit.

    Conclusion

    Childhood characteristics have a certain impact on health in old age. To promote the physical health of the elderly, we can improve the physical and mental health of children and cultivate their leadership and adventurous spirit.