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To construct and validate a nomogram model for sarcopenia in Chinese elderly individuals.
Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011 and 2015 were utilized, randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. LASSO regression was employed to select potential predictive variables, and Logistic regression was used to determine the final predictive variables, leading to the construction of the nomogram. The model’s predictive performance, calibration, and clinical validity were evaluated through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Leeshawn test, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.
A total of 1 320 elderly individuals without sarcopenia at baseline were included, and after a 4-year follow-up, 161 individuals (12.2%) developed sarcopenia. LASSO regression identified 10 potential predictive variables, while Logistic regression analysis indicated that age and social isolation were risk factors, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.086 (95%CI: 1.049-1.125) and 1.696 (95%CI: 1.114-2.582), respectively. Social interaction (SI) was identified as a protective factor (OR=0.986, 95%CI: 0.973-0.999). Compared to a body roundness index (BRI) ≤ 3.00, higher BRI levels were associated with lower risk: ORs (95%CI) for >3.00-3.74, >3.74-4.51, >4.51-5.47, and >5.47 were 0.529 (0.284-0.988), 0.315 (0.164-0.606), 0.128 (0.061-0.270), and 0.174 (0.087-0.347),respectively. Based on these findings, a nomogram was constructed, with AUCs of 0.734 and 0.723 for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating good model discrimination. The Hosmer-Leeshawn test demonstrated good model fit, and the calibration curve closely matched the ideal curve. Decision curve analysis suggested that the model possesses good clinical efficacy.
The risk of sarcopenia is relatively high among Chinese elderly individuals, and the nomogram model constructed based on age, SI, social isolation, and BRI can effectively predict the risk of its occurrence.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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