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To describe the epidemic characteristics of pertussis in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023 and to explore the feasibility of using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting pertussis incidence in the province.
Epidemiological characteristics of pertussis cases collected for this study were analyzed. Data from January 2011 to June 2023 were used as the training set to construct the ARIMA model, which was then utilized to predict the incidence trend of pertussis from July 2023 to December 2024, thereby evaluating the model’s predictive performance.
A total of 1 970 pertussis cases were reported in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023, with an annual incidence rate of 0.19 per 100 000. The number of reported male cases exceeded that of female cases, yielding a sex ratio of 1.08:1. Most cases occurred in infants under one year of age (52.2%, 1 049/1 970), with 83.5% of these infants being under six months old (876/1 049). Pertussis exhibited a seasonal peak during spring and summer, with the highest incidence observed in April. The ARIMA (1,1,3) (0,1,2)12 model was identified as the optimal predictive model for this study, showing a close alignment between the model-fitted incidence trend from 2011 to 2023 and the actual incidence trend. Additionally, the actual monthly incidence from July to December 2023 fell within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values.
This model effectively fits the incidence of pertussis in Jiangsu Province and holds practical value for short-term prediction and analysis of pertussis in the region.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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