Latest ArticlesTo analyze the epidemic characteristics of infectious disease public health emergencies in Beijing in recent 10 years, and to provide reference for the prevention and control of infectious disease public health emergencies.
Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the occurrence characteristics of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Beijing from 2014 to 2023.
From 2014 to 2023, a total of 443 public health emergencies of infectious diseases were reported in Beijing, with 7 334 cases and 20 deaths. The incidence rate was 1.56% and the fatality rate was 0.27%. There were 240 unclassified incidents (54.18%) and 202 general incidents (45.60%). The main categories were Class B incidents and Class C incidents, with 202 events (45.60%) and 98 events (22.12%) reported respectively. The main transmission routes were life contact transmission, water and food transmission and vector animal and plant transmission, with 192 evens (43.34%), 36 evens (8.13%) and 29 evens (6.55%) reported respectively. The main occurrence places were home and school, with 215 events (48.53%) and 136 events (30.70%) reported respectively. The peak months were June-August and January-February, with 149 events (33.63%) and 105 events (23.70%) reported respectively. The prediction accuracy of the grey model GM(1,1) is excellent, but the difference between the predicted value and the actual value in 2020-2023 is large.
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly changed the rising trend of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Beijing, but the prevention and control work in the post-COVID-19 era should not be ignored, and the comprehensive prevention and control of key infectious diseases and imported infectious diseases should be strengthened in key seasons and places.
To analyze the characteristics of suspected adverse events following immunization (AEFI) in Guiyang City from 2014 to 2023, to evaluate the safety of immunization in Guiyang City, and to provide guidance for improving AEFI monitoring.
Collect AEFI data and vaccine immunization data in Guiyang City from 2014 to 2023 through the “National Immunization Planning Information System” and “Guizhou Province Immunization Planning Information Management System.” Use descriptive epidemiological methods to statistically analyze the epidemiological characteristics and reported incidence rates of AEFI in Guiyang City.
From 2014 to 2023, Guiyang City reported a total of 4 498 cases of AEFI, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 14.63 per 100 000. The incidence rate was the highest in 2023 (1 358 cases, 42.43/100 000) and the lowest in 2015 (23 cases, 1.85/100 000). The reported incidence rate had a statistically significant difference among different years (χ2=3 638.04,P<0.001). Yunyan District reported the most cases (1 539 cases, 25.86/100 000), while Xifeng County reported the least cases (86 cases, 6.67/100 000), and the difference among different regions was statistically significant (χ2=890.10,P<0.001). The most cases were reported in November (588 cases, 24.7/100 000) and the least in February (136 cases, 8.37/100 000), and there was a statistically significant difference among different months (χ2=277.31,P<0.001). The male-to-female ratio was 1.10：1.00, with the highest reports in the age group ≤1 year (2 697 cases, 59.96%). The outcome was recovery or improvement in 96.47% of cases.
2014-2023 AEFI in Guiyang is mainly a general response and the vaccination safety is good. However, the work carried out in different places varies and the monitoring sensitivity needs to be further enhanced.
To explore the optimal prediction model for hantavirus hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Hubei province, and to provide a basis for establishing a monitoring and early warning model for HFRS.
Using monthly surveillance data of HFRS incidence in Hubei province from 2005 to 2021, eight single time series models based on exponential smoothing (ETS), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) with and without regression variables, a state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, trend, and seasonal components (TBATS), a time series neural network model (NNETAR) with and without regression variables, a linear regression time series model (TSLM), and a cubic spline prediction model (SPLINEF) were used to build 162 models through 1-4 model combinations. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used as an evaluation index to evaluate the fitting and prediction performance of the models. The comprehensive fitting and prediction performance were evaluated by calculating the mean MAPE of fitting and prediction.
The TSLM model and its combined models had a comprehensive MAPE of more than 100%. Among the other 98 models, the optimal fitting models for single, two, three, and four-model combinations were SPLINEF (11.98%), SARIMA-SPLINEF (15.14%), SARIMA-NNETAR-REG-SPLINEF (16.06%), and SARIMA-TBAT-NNETAR-REG-SPLINEF (17.75%), respectively. The optimal prediction models for single, two, three, and four-model combinations were SARIMA-REG (34.48%), SARIMA-REG-TBATS (22.77%), SARIMA-TBATS-SPLINEF (23.84%), and SARIMA-SARIMA-REG-TBATS-SPLINEF (22.31%), respectively. The optimal fitting and prediction models for single, two, three, and four-model combinations were SPLINEF (24.75%), SARIMA-SPLINEF (22.55%), SARIMA-TBATS-SPLINEF (20.92%), and SARIMA-SARIMA-REG-TBATS-SPLINEF (20.75%), respectively.
Based on the number of models, fitting and prediction accuracy, SARIMA-TBATS-SPLINEF is considered the optimal prediction model and can be used for monitoring and early warning of HFRS in Hubei.
To investigate the interaction between overweight/obesity and dyslipidemia on hyperuricemia (HUA), and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of HUA.
The data were derived from the physical examination records of workers at the Xishan Coal and Electricity Group in 2018, encompassing a total of 38 615 study participants.SAS 9.3 software was used to conduct χ2 test and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Additive interaction model was used to analyze the interaction between overweight/obesity and dyslipidemia on HUA.
The prevalence rate of HUA was 18.28%. After adjusting for gender, age, smoking, drinking, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and blood creatinine, the results of multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that overweight/obesity (OR=2.756, 95%CI: 2.584-2.939) and dyslipidemia (OR=2.221, 95%CI: 2.100-2.349) were associated with a higher risk of HUA, respectively. Interaction analyses showed a synergistic additive interaction between overweight/obesity and dyslipidemia on the prevalence of HUA, with those who were overweight/obese and dyslipidemic having a higher risk of HUA than those who had neither (OR=4.840,95%CI: 4.452-5.261), and the relative excess risk of interaction (RERI) was 0.4,the attributable proportion of interaction (API) was 0.083, and the synergy index (SI) was 1.116.
Overweight/obesity and dyslipidemia both increase the risk of HUA, and there is synergistic additive interaction between them.Controlling body mass index and lipid levels may prevent HUA.
To analyze the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors attributed to HPV infection in Sichuan region from 2018 to 2022.
From January 2018 to December 2022, the population, tumor incidence rate and mortality in Sichuan were collected, and the population attributable fraction (PAF) attributable to HPV infection was calculated by age and sex.
The population attributable proportions of HPV infection among residents in Sichuan region from 2018 to 2022 for the incidence and mortality of common malignant tumors were 65.0% and 59.2% respectively. The attribution of HPV (PAF) to the incidence of malignant tumors in the oropharynx, oral cavity, and throat of males was higher than that of females (χ2=78.904, P<0.001).The attributable HPV (PAF) of cervical, vulva, oral, and laryngeal malignant tumors in urban populations was higher than that in rural populations(χ2=119.03, P<0.001).In addition, there was a gender difference (P<0.05) in the relationship between the incidence of tumors attributed to HPV infection and age, indicating that males had earlier onset ages for various tumors. The attribution of HPV (PAF) to death in male oropharyngeal, oral, and laryngeal malignant tumors was higher than that in females(χ2=110.578, P<0.001).The mortality attributable HPV (PAF) of cervical, anal, oropharyngeal, oral, and laryngeal malignant tumors in urban populations was higher than that in rural populations(χ2=66.285, P<0.001).In addition, there was a gender difference (P<0.05) in the relationship between tumor mortality attributed to HPV infection and age, with males dying earlier for oral and oropharyngeal malignancies, and females dying earlier for anal malignancies.
From 2018 to 2022, the incidence and death of tumors attributed to HPV infection in Sichuan region are more, and the incidence and death show an increasing trend, among which timely screening of cervical cancer is the key to reduce the incidence and death of HPV tumors.
Objective To explore the differences of intestinal flora, metabolic pathways, and functional genes among people at ten-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Tibetan population. Methods Based on the follow-up survey data of the natural population cohort in Lhasa in southwest China, a total of 94 people were included in the “China Blood Lipid Management Guide 2023” for follow-up analysis. DNA was extracted from stool samples and analyzed by macro genomic sequencing. The composition of intestinal flora of people at different 10-year risks of ASCVD was compared by bioinformatics method. The metabolic pathway and functional genes were predicted by Kyoto Encyclopedia of Gene and Genome (KEGG) and MetaCye database. Linear discriminant analysis and generalized linear regression were used to screen differential bacteria and explore their relationship with related phenotypes. Results The α diversity of people at risk of ASCVD in the middle and high 10-year risk was significantly decreased (t=-8.213, P=0.032). Strains closely related to butyrate production such as Bacteroides uniforms, (LDA=4.035, P=0.001), Faecalibacterium prausnitzii (LDA=3.876, P=0.003), Bacteroides ovatus (LDA=3.648, P=0.006), Bacteroides fragilis (LDA=3.604, P=0.003), Ruminococcus bicirculans (LDA=3.188, P=0.009), and Roseburia hominis(LDA= 3.169, P=0.004) were enriched in the population with low 10-year risk of ASCVD. The pathways and functional genes related to lipopolysaccharide synthesis (LDA=2.619, P=0.004) and lipid metabolism (LDA=2.694, P=0.001) were significantly up-regulated in the middle and high 10-year ASCVD risk population. Conclusion The intestinal microflora and metabolic function of the people at 10-year risk of ASCVD are significantly changed, and the imbalance of intestinal flora may also be one of the important reasons for changing the 10-year risk of ASCVD.
Objective To explore the clustering of lifestyle among middle school students in Zhengzhou and its correlation with high blood pressure, in order to provide a scientific basis for the development of effective strategies for preventing and controlling high blood pressure in adolescents. Methods A multi-stage cluster random sampling method was used to select 8 middle schools in Zhengzhou in 2021, with a total of 2 791 students included. A self-made questionnaire was used to investigate their general information and dietary and exercise behaviors, as well as measuring their height, weight, and blood pressure. A latent class clustering analysis was conducted, as well as a binary logistic regression analysis for correlation. Results In total 23.5% of the middle school students were reported to have high blood pressure, with a higher prevalence among junior high school students (26.0%) than high school students (20.2%) (χ2=12.760, P<0.001). A latent class clustering analysis of dietary and exercise behaviors identified two categories: sub-healthy and healthy lifestyles. Logistic regression analysis found that after adjusting for gender, ethnicity, age, grade, and BMI, the risk of high blood pressure in sub-healthy students was 1.357 times that of healthy students (OR=1.357, 95%CI: 1.083-1.701). Conclusion Sub-healthy lifestyles increase the risk of high blood pressure in adolescents, providing new information for exploring the risk factors of cardiovascular and metabolic abnormalities in adolescents as well as the prevention and control of high blood pressure in adolescents.
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and treatment-related deaths within 12 months of HIV/AIDS patients aged 50 and above reported in a province, providing a basis for targeted prevention and control measures. Methods Data on HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 and above reported in a province from 2010 to 2019 were collected from the China CDC Information System for Comprehensive Prevention and Control of AIDS, and the epidemiological characteristics and treatment-related deaths within 12 months were analyzed. The comparison of rates was performed using the χ2 test, trend changes were analyzed using the trend χ2 test, and the comparison of CD4+ T lymphocyte detection results between groups was performed using non-parametric tests. Results From 2010 to 2019, a total of 2 875 cases of HIV/AIDS aged 50 and above were reported in the province, accounting for 19.4% of the total cases (14 819 cases). The proportion of new cases increased from 10.3% in 2010 to 24.6% in 2019, with a statistically significant difference (χ2trend =126.741, P < 0.001), and the annual reported incidence showed an increasing trend (χ2trend=936.208, P < 0.001). The male-to-female ratio was 5.3:1, with an average age of (58.40±7.50) years. The majority were farmers, accounting for 49.0% (1 408/2 875). The primary education level accounted for 42.0%(1 208/2 875). The majority were identified by medical institutions, accounting for 64.5% (1 854/2 875); sexual transmission was the primary route, accounting for 96.8% (2 784/2 875). Among male cases, same-sex transmission accounted for 49.5% (1 423/2 416). Among female cases, non-marital heterosexual transmission and spousal transmission accounted for 49.0% (212/433) and 51.0% (221/433), respectively. The median CD4+ T lymphocyte count at the initial test was 266 cells/mm3. There was a statistically significant difference in CD4+ T lymphocyte counts between males and females (Z=-5.395, P < 0.001). The treatment rate within 12 months of diagnosis was 56.7% (1 632/2 875), showing an increasing trend each year (χ2trend=115.054, P < 0.001). The mortality rate within 12 months of diagnosis was 15.2% (433/2,875), showing a decreasing trend each year (χ2trend=61.654, P < 0.001). Conclusion The number and proportion of HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 and above in the province have been increasing annually. It is necessary to strengthen targeted health education and interventions for this population as well as expand testing to achieve early detection and treatment.
Objective To investigate the high-risk factors for preeclampsia in Urumqi, establish a risk prediction model, and validate its effectiveness. Methods A total of 6 138 pregnant women undergoing antenatal examination from February 2021 to February 2023 were collected through the integrated platform of clinical research in Urumqi Maternal and Child Health Hospital. General data, pregnancy history, and pregnancy complications were recorded. The patients were randomly divided into a modeling group (n=4 308) and a validation group (n=1 830) in a 7:3 ratio. The logistic regression model analysis method was used to construct a Nomogram prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to assess the discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability of the prediction model. Results The advanced age (OR=1.887, 95%CI: 1.535-2.319), overweight (OR=3.221, 95%CI: 2.699-3.844), family history (OR=1.575, 95%CI: 1.254-1.979), hypertension history (OR=17.552, 95%CI: 7.021-43.882), hypertension complicating pregnancy (OR=1.827, 95%CI: 1.388-2.405), preeclampsia history (OR=6.216, 95%CI: 3.578-10.770), and primiparity (OR=2.384, 95%CI:1.777-3.200) were identified as independent risk factors of preeclampsia in Urumqi. The results of ROC curve test showed that the area under the curve and 95%CI of the model group were 0.762 (0.742-0.782), and for the validation group were 0.765 (0.734-0.796). The calibration curve and DCA curve demonstrated that the Nomogram had good accuracy and clinical applicability. Conclusion The established nomogram prediction model exhibited good predictive ability and provides an important reference for clinical practitioners to identify high-risk patients. Early intervention measures should be implemented to prevent further progression and improve maternal and infant outcomes.
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics, changing trends, and spatial-temporal aggregation of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Wenzhou from 2013 to 2022, so as to scientifically guide the decision-making of prevention and control. Methods The infectious disease report data for HFMD in Wenzhou city were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System for the period 2013—2022. Spatial-temporal scanning analysis was conducted using StatsCan software, and spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using ArcMap 10.2 software to identify spatial-temporal aggregation patterns. Results A total of 260 401 cases of HFMD were reported in Wenzhou from 2013 to 2022, with an average annual incidence of 276.93 per 100 000 and a severe disease rate of 13.82 per 100 000. The incidence exhibited a decreasing trend (χ2trend=26 402.606, P < 0.05). The incidence rate among individuals over 6 years old increased (χ2trend=1 814.455, P < 0.05), as did the rates among nursery children, students, and teachers (χ2trend=5 493.085, P < 0.05; χ2trend=1 752.584, P < 0.05; χ2trend=9.424, P < 0.05). Spatial analysis revealed aggregation of HFMD cases in 2017, with a Moran I value of 0.433 514 (Z=2.42 775 and P=0.015 193), indicating positive spatial correlation and hot spots concentrated in Wencheng county and Pingyang county. Spatial-temporal scanning identified a primary aggregation covering Rui’an city, Cangnan county,Pingyang county, and Wencheng county, from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2018, with a radiation radius of 44.67km (LLR=12 534.45, RR=1.98, P < 0.01). The proportion of enterovirus type 71 (EV-A71) in group A showed a downward trend (χ2trend=171.245, P < 0.05), while the proportion of other enteroviruses, including coxsackievirus group A 16 (CV-A16), increased(χ2trend=93.481, P < 0.05). Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Wenzhou remains high, although both the incidence and severity rates have decreased. Other enteroviruses, including coxsackievirus group A 6 (CV-A6), have become the dominant pathogens, and there has been an increase in incidence among teachers and individuals over 6 years old. The main aggregation areas were identified as Rui’an city, Cangnan county, Pingyang county, and Wencheng county.
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