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  • Shuang TAN, Zitong CHAI
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 26-32.

    To deeply explore the knowledge production status and development logic in the field of risk communication for public health emergencies in China,this study systematically sorts out 234 core literatures from CNKI using bibliometrics and content analysis. First,the knowledge production trend is summarized through quantitative statistics; second,the Citespace software is used to construct a visual knowledge map of the main subjects and carriers of knowledge production and core issues,analyzing the current situation of knowledge production; finally,the content logic and process logic of knowledge production are sorted out through content analysis of the literature. The results show that the current knowledge production of risk communication for public health emergencies in China is driven by both "push" and "pull" factors. There is an obvious trend of interdisciplinary crossover,the content system of knowledge production is taking shape; and the methods of knowledge production are characterized by diversity.

  • Haibo DONG, Xizhao WANG, Xuekang GU, Shuxia BU, Ke ZENG
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 33-41.

    In order to mitigate the catastrophic consequences resulting from various accidents,F-N curve method was employed to conduct research on societal risk acceptance criteria for typical ships in the Yangtze River. Combined with the actual data of the bulk carriers on Yangtze River,the sensitivity analysis of the key parameters that determine the region boundary of ALARP was carried out,including EV,the risk aversion factor and the upper limit of the fatalities in one accident. For the bulk carriers,the general societal risk acceptance criterion was established. Considering the society's risk aversion to a large number of deaths,an improved acceptance criterion was proposed. Furthermore,the historical accident data of bulk carriers in the Yangtze River from 2010 to 2019 were collected. Through data analysis and frequency calculation,the societal risk of the bulk carriers caused by collision,grounding,contact,stranding,sinking,fire/explosion and wind disaster were determined,and risk assessment was conducted using the acceptance criteria established in this paper. It is shown that the risk aversion factor is the most crucial parameter to determine whether the criterion is strict enough. The number of fatalities corresponding to the horizontal intercept of the upper boundary line of ALARP region for the improved criterion is 9.55% of that of the general criterion,while considering the horizontal intercept of the lower boundary line of ALARP region,the percentage is 44.44%,which means that the improved criterion is more stringent and exhibits stronger aversion to a larger number of deaths.

  • Liang CHEN, Wei ZHENG
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 42-49.

    In order to further ensure the safety of railway operation,this article conducted a survey and analysis on the fatigue factors of railway train dispatchers. Firstly,according to the characteristics of the work content of railway train dispatchers,a fatigue causation evaluation index system for railway train dispatchers was established based on extensive literature review,consultation with railway train dispatching experts and human factors engineering experts. The index system consists of four first-level indicators: work content,job rotation arrangement,personnel quality,and external factors,as well as 18 second-level indicators. Secondly,AWAHP method was used to calculate the weight of different experts' own evaluation were calculated and the final weights of the final indicators were obtained. Finally,the dispatch center of a certain railway bureau was taken as an example for a comprehensive evaluation of the impact weights of dispatcher fatigue-cause factors based on AWAHP. The results show that emergency response,operation time period,continuous operation time,railway busy degree,and work complexity are the significant factors affecting dispatcher fatigue. The key factors of railway train dispatcher fatigue were effectively identified,and analysis and countermeasures were proposed for the key factors.

  • Xiazhong ZHENG, Yicheng LIU, Bo SHAO, Shuo WANG, Shan'gang KE
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 50-57.

    To clarify the accident causes and their association rules of strike accidents in hydropower project construction,specific accident prevention strategies were proposed to curb accidents at source. Based the selected object strike accidents during hydropower construction process,14 accident causal parameters were summarized using text mining from four perspectives including worker,machine,environment and management. Moreover,an importance analysis model was proposed by coupling association rules and the DEMATEL approach to analyze the interrelated relationship between causes and determine major accident causes. The results showed that the accident causes of object strikes in hydropower projects were closely related to each other,among which inadequate safety supervision and inspection,illegal operations,insufficient safety protection,and weak safety awareness directly affected the accident's occurrence. Furthermore,the deeper causing factors of accidents were incomplete on-site cleaning,insufficient disclosure of safety technology,and inadequate safety education. Weak safety awareness ranked first in terms of centrality and had the greatest influence on the accident causation system,thereby the above causative factors should be emphasized in project construction.

  • Yong XIA, Ruinan AN, Weifeng ZHANG, Chao ZHANG, Kun HE, Peng LIN
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 58-66.

    To face the challenges of evacuation and rescue of fires in large hydraulic tunnel group and the unclear control mechanism of smoke barrier,numerical simulation was employed to analyze smoke spreading law and fire control mechanism of smoke barrier. The smoke spreading path and the visibility distribution were analyzed. The impact of installing smoke barrier walls on smoke spreading speed,visibility and temperature was studied,and the effectiveness of smoke control measures was evaluated. The results show that the smoke initially spreads along a single two-way direction,and is affected by ventilation airflow when reaching branch tunnel with smoke reversal,retrogression and increased intrusion range. Smoke fills the whole ventilation network within 500 s,the stratification interface between the smoke layer and the lower air layer is unstable,and the height of the smoke layer at the intersection decreases more significantly. The smoke barrier can promote smoke propagation along the diversion tunnel,and the effect decreases with the increase of propagation distance. It has cumulative blocking characteristics along the tunnel direction of the construction branch. The influence of the smoke barrier leads to the temperature decreasing as the diffusion length increases. A smoke storage pool is formed in front of the smoke barrier to enhance the degree of backflow of smoke. Behind it is the smoke deceleration and pressurization area,and the smoke layer rises.

  • Shenping HU, Lingling LIU, Yongtao XI, Xinxin ZHANG
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 67-76.

    In order to improve the pilot's operational comfort,a combined evaluation method based on FPN and FRA was proposed. First,a multi-factor coupled FPN network topology was established for the uncertainty information of the influencing factors of operational comfort. Then,the optimal combination weights were determined by the game theoretic assignment method. An algorithm combining the inter-layer correlation to determine the critical importance,analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy reasoning was proposed to establish a FRA based on subjective and objective weights. The confidence and state matrices were solved by iterative solution of the library. Finally,combined with the scenario data of ship pilotage in Shanghai harbor,the operational comfort of pilots was evaluated through the application of FRA based on FPN. The results show that the environment and pilotage equipment are the key factors affecting the comfort of their operation. The comfort level of pilotage operation in winter and summer corresponds to "less comfortable",and "more comfortable" in May. The proposed method fully reflects the coupled nature of the factors influencing the comfort of the system.

  • Ming YANG, Gaini JIA, Xingyuan QUAN, Xuebo ZHANG, Maomao LIU
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 77-86.

    In order to study the influence of section size change on noise propagation in long space of coal mine roadway,the simulation method was used to study the noise propagation in the roadway,and to analyze the influence of the changes of section area size,section shape and section area mutation rate on the noise propagation in the roadway of coal mine roadway. The results showed that: the section area size,section shape and section area mutation rate in coal mine tunneling would affect the propagation of noise in the tunnel,when the noise source power and frequency were the same,the attenuation of the sound pressure level increased with the increase of the section area of the roadway. For a given section area (18 m2),when the section shape was different,the attenuation of the sound pressure level was also different,and there would be an obvious acoustic focusing effect when the section shape was arch-shaped. When the cross-section area changed abruptly,the distribution of sound pressure level in the roadway would change,in which the change of cross-section area from large to small was not conducive to noise attenuation,and the change of cross-section area from small to large only affected the sound field after the abrupt change,and the overall sound pressure level in the roadway is not significant. The field test and numerical simulation results of noise attenuation in the tunnel were basically consistent,which verified the reliability of the model and simulation results.

  • Chao CHEN, Xinxin TAN, Di WANG, Changjun LI
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 87-92.

    To address the safety management issues of oil depots in case of earthquakes,firstly,seismic resilience is defined as the ability of oil depots to maintain their storage functions in terms of resisting earthquake damage,mitigating secondary disasters,adapting to environments after earthquakes,and quickly recovering after earthquakes. Moreover,an assessment model for the seismic resilience of Oil depot is proposed by quantifying the four types of abilities. Secondly,a quantitative assessment of the seismic resilience of the oil depot is realized through a dynamic Monte Carlo method,considering the uncertainty of the resistance and mitigation stages,thereby obtaining the seismic resilience value. Finally,the performance of the proposed model is validated against the oil depot in an earthquake area. The results indicate that the uncertainty of the resilience ability of the oil depot results in a significant fluctuation in resilience values,and the domino effect has a significant influence on the oil depot's resilience and cannot be ignored. Moreover,the farther the earthquake source distance and the lower the fault slip rate lead to higher seismic resilience. The seismic resilience can be improved by staying away from active faults,predicting earthquake hazards,and reducing emergency response time.

  • Xiangqian YANG, Pingru ZHANG, Shengnan WU, Laibin ZHANG, Zhong LI, Huanzhi FENG
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 93-100.

    An early prediction and warning method of offshore drilling overflow based on data model collaboration was proposed to prevent blowout accidents during offshore drilling. Firstly,an overflow risk prediction model based on PSO-LSSVM was established to predict the trend of drilling monitoring parameters in the future,and analyze the correlation between overflow events and characterization parameters. Then,a single-parameter overflow probability estimation prediction model was proposed based on the Naive Bayesian method,and the probabilities of multiple drilling parameters were integrated through the optimized D-S method to realize a hierarchical early warning of overflow events. The results indicated that the overflow characterization parameters simulated by the PSO-LSSVM model had low prediction errors. The overflow event probability represented by a single drilling parameter showed discrepancies due to different sensitivities. The fused early warning model can address the issues of inconsistent early warning times of single parameters and eliminate the possibility of false alarms.

  • Wei ZHANG, Hanhao GAO, Xinqi TANG, Kunmiao XU
    China Safety Science Journal. 2024, 34(4): 101-110.

    In order to investigate the influence of flat curve,longitudinal curve,and flat-long combination of line shapes on the severity of traffic accidents on mountain highways,firstly,the line shape data of a 263 km section of a mountain highway and the 1 870 accidents occurring on the section in five years were statistically analyzed and classified. Then,according to the structural form of the research data,the stochastic parametric logit model was established,and then the model was utilized to study the effect of the combination of line shapes on the severity of accidents. The results show that: the factors of ratio of curve (ROC),weighted curvature (CW),and delta slope (ΔS2) are associated with an increase in property damage-only accidents,whereas the combination of slope lengths (CSL) is associated with a decrease in property damage-only accidents; the weighted curvature (CW=0.6-0.7) and continuous uphill slope are associated with an increase in accidents with minor injuries,and the factors of weighted curvature (CW=0.3-0.4),delta slope (ΔS1),and ratio of curve (ROC) were associated with a decrease in accidents with minor injuries; the variation rate of curvature (VRC),contiguous radius of front and behind (CRF,CRB),and combination of slope and radius (CSR) were associated with an increase in accidents with serious injuries or fatalities,and the ratio of curve (ROC) was associated with a decrease in accidents with serious injuries or fatalities; and the combination of linear shapes had a significant effect on the severity of accidents.