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Study on societal risk acceptance criteria of typical ships in Yangtze River
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Haibo DONG1, 2, Xizhao WANG1, 2, Xuekang GU1, 2, Shuxia BU1, 2, Ke ZENG1, 2
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(4) : 33 - 41
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(4): 33-41
Safety social science and safety management
Study on societal risk acceptance criteria of typical ships in Yangtze River
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Haibo DONG1, 2, Xizhao WANG1, 2, Xuekang GU1, 2, Shuxia BU1, 2, Ke ZENG1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1 China Ship Scientific Research Center,Wuxi Jiangsu 214082,China
  • 2 Taihu Laboratory of Deepsea Technological Science,Wuxi Jiangsu 214082,China
Published: 2024-04-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0389
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In order to mitigate the catastrophic consequences resulting from various accidents,F-N curve method was employed to conduct research on societal risk acceptance criteria for typical ships in the Yangtze River. Combined with the actual data of the bulk carriers on Yangtze River,the sensitivity analysis of the key parameters that determine the region boundary of ALARP was carried out,including EV,the risk aversion factor and the upper limit of the fatalities in one accident. For the bulk carriers,the general societal risk acceptance criterion was established. Considering the society's risk aversion to a large number of deaths,an improved acceptance criterion was proposed. Furthermore,the historical accident data of bulk carriers in the Yangtze River from 2010 to 2019 were collected. Through data analysis and frequency calculation,the societal risk of the bulk carriers caused by collision,grounding,contact,stranding,sinking,fire/explosion and wind disaster were determined,and risk assessment was conducted using the acceptance criteria established in this paper. It is shown that the risk aversion factor is the most crucial parameter to determine whether the criterion is strict enough. The number of fatalities corresponding to the horizontal intercept of the upper boundary line of ALARP region for the improved criterion is 9.55% of that of the general criterion,while considering the horizontal intercept of the lower boundary line of ALARP region,the percentage is 44.44%,which means that the improved criterion is more stringent and exhibits stronger aversion to a larger number of deaths.

societal risk  /  acceptance criteria  /  frequency-number of fatalities (F-N)  /  as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)  /  potential loss of life (PLL)
Haibo DONG, Xizhao WANG, Xuekang GU, Shuxia BU, Ke ZENG. Study on societal risk acceptance criteria of typical ships in Yangtze River[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (4) : 33 -41 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0389
Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 4
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0389
  • Receive Date:2023-11-03
  • Online Date:2025-07-09
  • Published:2024-04-28
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  • Received:2023-11-03
  • Revised:2024-02-11
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Affiliations
    1 China Ship Scientific Research Center,Wuxi Jiangsu 214082,China
    2 Taihu Laboratory of Deepsea Technological Science,Wuxi Jiangsu 214082,China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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