To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Nanchang from 2005 to 2023 and evaluate the application value of the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in predicting hepatitis C incidence trends, providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis C in the city.

Data on hepatitis C incidence in Nanchang from January 2005 to December 2023 were collected. The trend and seasonal components of the monthly incidence data were analyzed using time series decomposition. The BSTS model was constructed using R software, with data from January 2005 to December 2022 used as the training set to fit the model, and data from January to December 2023 used as the test set to evaluate the model's predictive performance. The prediction accuracy of the BSTS model was compared with that of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) as evaluation metrics.

The overall incidence of hepatitis C in Nanchang has been on an upward trend, though the rate of increase has slowed since 2017. The data reveals significant cyclical and seasonal fluctuations, with a peak incidence in the spring months from March to May and a trough from January to February.The prediction performance indicators of the BSTS model (MAE=9.67, MAPE=17.61%, RMSE=11.99 and RMSPE=17.84) were all lower than those of the ARIMA model (MAE=12.12, MAPE=29.03%, RMSE=15.30, RMSPE=33.62). Based on the BSTS model, the total predicted number of hepatitis C cases in Nanchang from January 2024 to December 2024 is 308 (95% CI: 68-583), with an average monthly incidence of 26 cases (95% CI: 6-48).

Hepatitis C incidence in Nanchang exhibits periodic and seasonal fluctuations. The BSTS model outperforms the ARIMA model in prediction performance and can provide technical support for the precise prevention and control of hepatitis C.

To analyze the changing trends of CRD disease burden in China’s elderly population from 1990 to 2021, and to provide a reference for the development and adjustment of chronic disease prevention and treatment strategies for the elderly in China.

Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database on the burden of disease of CRD in China between 1990 and 2021, we described the burden of disease of CRD in China by gender and age groups, and used Joinpoint regression to analyse the temporal trends of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of CRD, age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR). The age, period and cohort effects of CRD incidence and mortality in the elderly in China were estimated using the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model.

Compared with 1990, there was an overall fluctuating downward trend in the number of CRD incidence, death, and DALY in China in 2021, and a decreasing trend in the ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR, with the annual average percentage change (AAPC) of -1.05%, -3.68%, and -3.56%, respectively P < 0.001, and the ASIR, ASMR and ASDR were higher in males than in females. The results of the incidence rate APC model showed that, for the age effect, the relative risk (RR) values of the risk of CRD incidence in elderly Chinese men ranged from 0.448 to 1.872, and the RR values of the risk of CRD incidence in elderly women ranged from 0.438 to 1.679; for the period effect, the RR values of the risk of CRD incidence for men in all periods ranged from 0.960 to 1.051, and the RR values of the risk of CRD incidence for women ranged from 0.921 to 1.139; for the cohort effect, the RR values of morbidity risk ranged from 0.687 to 1.221 for men and from 0.714 to 1.345 for women. The results of the mortality APC model showed that, for the age effect, the RR values of mortality risk of CRD in elderly Chinese men ranged from 0.134 to 5.053, and in elderly Chinese women, the RR values ranged from 0.130 to 5.090; for the period effect, the RR values of mortality risk for males in each period ranged from 0.826 to 1.221, and the RR values of morbidity risk for females ranged from 0.697 to 1.479; for the cohort effect, the RR values of mortality risk for males ranged from 0.374 to 1.693, and those for females ranged from 0.374 to 1.724, and the results of the APC model test showed a statistically significant difference (P < 0.05). The differences were statistically different (P < 0.001).

The burden of CRD disease in China from 1990 to 2021 showed a decreasing trend, and the burden was significantly heavier in men than in women. The risk of CRD incidence and mortality in the elderly increased with age, decreased over time, and decreased with the development of birth cohorts. In the future, the focus should be on men and the elderly population, and active measures should be taken to address them.

To test the reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the general medication adherence scale (GMAS) in patients with nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease(NTM-PD).

Patients with NTM-PD treated in Wuxi Fifth Hospital affiliated with Jiangnan University from February 2023 to September 2024 were selected as research objects to conduct a questionnaire survey to test the reliability and validity of the Chinese version of GMAS.

A total of 281 patients were included in the study. The Cronbach's α coefficient of the Chinese version of the universal medication compliance scale was 0.890, and the Cronbach's α coefficient of each dimension was 0.834-0.890. The broken half reliability was 0.806, the split-half reliability of each dimension was 0.834-0.870, and the test-retest reliability was 0.896. Three common factors were extracted by exploratory factor analysis, and the cumulative variance contribution rate was 76.244%. Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the model had a good fit, χ²/df=1.583, GFI=0.928, AGFI=0.884, NFI=0.934, TLI=0.965, CFI=0.974, TLI=0.965, RMSEA=0.063, and had good convergent validity and discriminant validity.

The Chinese version of GMAS has good reliability and validity in NTM-PD patients, mainly middle-aged and elderly people, and can be used to evaluate the level of medication compliance in this population.

To investigate the correlation between the DNA damage level of the CYTB gene and the arsenic methylation level, FEN1 and XPC gene polymorphism in workers exposed to arsenic.

A total of 79 workers exposed to occupational arsenic in a coke oven factory in the southern mountainous area of Yunnan Province were selected as the exposure group, and 24 agricultural workers from the same village were selected as the control group. The urine and peripheral blood samples of the subjects were collected.The concentration and percentage of arsenic and its metabolites were detected in the urine, and the DNA damage level of the CYTB gene was detected in peripheral blood.

The concentrations of inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and dimethylarsonic acid (DMA) in the urine of the exposure group were higher than those of the control group (P<0.01). The methylation level of the exposure group was significantly higher than that of the control group in terms of MMA% and primary methylation index (PMI), while the DMA% and secondary methylation index (SMI) were significantly lower than those of the control group (P<0.01). Linear regression analysis showed that the DNA damage level of the CYTB gene was positively correlated with MMA% (P< 0.01) and negatively correlated with SMI (P<0.001). The subjects with genotypes AA or GA+AA at the rs174538 locus of the FEN1 gene had significantly higher DNA damage levels of the CYTB gene than those with genotypes GG at this locus (P< 0.05). However, there was no statistical correlation between the genotype of XPC and the level of DNA damage in the CYTB gene (P>0.05).

Occupational arsenic exposure can lead to increased concentrations of arsenic and its metabolites in urine and decreased methylation of arsenic metabolism in the body. The DNA damage of the CYTB gene can be used as a marker of damage and early health damage in the body, and the mutation at the rs174538 locus of the FEN1 gene is associated with DNA damage of the CYTB gene, which can be used as an indicator of disease susceptibility in arsenic-exposed populations.

To investigate the causal relationship between serum liver enzymes and cardiovascular diseases in the East Asian population through Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses.

A two-sample Mendelian randomization study was conducted using the hitherto largest genome-wide association study summary datasets in the East Asian population. The inverse-variance weighted method (IVW) and MR PRESSO were used as primary univariable MR analyses, whereas the weighted median method, MR Egger, removing palindromic and pleiotropic instrumental variables were used as sensitivity analyses. Multivariable MR analyses used the multivariable IVW method to evaluate the independent causal effects of multiple serum liver enzymes on coronary artery disease (CAD) and stroke.

Genetically predicted serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) were causally associated with CAD (ALT→CAD: OR=0.546, 95% CI: 0.403-0.739; GGT→CAD: OR=0.618, 95% CI: 0.555-0.689). Additionally, GGT directly affected CAD independent of ALT (OR=0.662, 95% CI: 0.586-0.747). Genetically predicted serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and GGT had direct causal effects on stroke that were independent of each other (AST→stroke: OR=1.137, 95% CI: 1.054-1.226; GGT→stroke: OR=1.166, 95% CI: 1.110-1.225).

Serum liver enzymes have causal effects on cardiovascular diseases in the East Asian population.

To investigate the role of the potential pathogenic molecule MMP14 in silicosis.

18 SPF male C57 mice were randomly divided into control and silicosis group, and 16 human specimens from the pneumoconiosis cohort of the Fourth Hospital of West China, Sichuan University. Single-cell sequencing analysis was used to identify differentially expressed genes. A silicosis mouse model was induced by silica dioxide using a non-exposure tracheal instillation method. Hematoxylin-eosin staining and Masson staining were employed to assess the degree of inflammation and fibrosis in mouse lung tissues. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction, western blot, and immunohistochemistry were used to verify the expression of MMP14 and N-cadherin in the lung tissues. Knockdown of MMP14 in epithelial cells (16HBE) was achieved by small interfering RNA, to further verify the expression of N-cadherin. Cell wound healing assays were used to assess the cell migration after MMP14 knockdown.

MMP14 being selected as a potential pathogenic molecule by single-cell sequencing analysis. Compared with the normal control group, the expression of MMP14 and N-cadherin in silicosis lung tissues was significantly increased 3.78 and 2.42 times, respectively (P<0.001). Knockdown of MMP14 in 16HBE cells stimulated by SiO₂ led to the downregulation of N-cadherin by about 30% (P<0.001) and inhibition of cell migration, which area was reduced by 50% (P<0.001).

MMP14 activates the expression of N-cadherin, regulates the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) process, and promotes silica-induced pulmonary fibrosis.

To explore the mediating effect of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) on the association between body mass index (BMI) and thyroid nodules, and analyze the mechanisms of how an increase in BMI contributes to the development of thyroid nodules.

We selected 1 627 individuals who underwent health examinations at a hospital in Shenzhen from December 2020 to October 2023. Demographic data, physical examination, and biochemical test information were collected. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between BMI, HbA1c, and thyroid nodules. The bootstrap method was used to assess the mediating effect of HbA1c on the relationship between BMI and thyroid nodules.

Among the 1 627 participants, there were 520 males and 1 107 females, with males and females accounting for 32.0% and 68.0% of the sample, respectively. The detection rate of thyroid nodules was 40.9% (666/1 627). Significant differences (P<0.05) were observed between the nodule group and the non-nodule group in terms of age, BMI, occupation, education level, salt intake, HbA1c, and alkaline phosphatase levels. Multivariate analysis indicated that elevated BMI and HbA1c levels were risk factors for thyroid nodules, with OR(95% CI) of 1.038 (1.002-1.075) and 1.297(1.060-1.587), respectively. Mediation analysis showed that HbA1c partially mediated the effect of BMI on the prevalence of thyroid nodules (β=0.018, 95% CI [0.007 - 0.035]), with the mediating effect of HbA1c accounting for 31.58% of the total effect.

BMI and HbA1c are influencing factors of the risk of thyroid nodules, with HbA1c partially mediating the impact of BMI on the incidence of thyroid nodules.

To study the main influencing factors of anxiety disorders in patients with functional dyspepsia using logistic regression and decision tree models and to understand their psychological characteristics, in order to take targeted measures to improve the mental health status of them.

A questionnaire survey was conducted on 537 patients with functional dyspepsia from two tertiary hospitals in Xinjiang, using a general demographic data survey, Generalized Anxiety Scale (GAD-7), Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale (GSRS), Multidimensional Health Control Source Scale (MHLC), and Simplified Niping Digestive Dysfunction Index (SF-NDI). Binary logistic regression model and CHAID algorithm based classification decision tree to analyze the influencing factors of anxiety disorders in patients with functional dyspepsia. Compare the differences between the two models.

Logistic regression results showed that the leaders and staffs of state institutions (OR=5.13, 95% CI:1.031-25.529), freelances, the unemployed(OR=6.3, 95% CI:1.291-30.749), the worse the emotional states (OR=1.167, 95% CI:1.03-1.323), the worse the gastrointestinal symptoms(OR=1.065, 95% CI:1.037-1.095), and health authority control (OR=1.032, 95% CI:1.006-1.06) were associated with a higher risk of anxiety disorders in patients with functional dyspepsia (P<0.05). The results of decision tree modeling showed that gastrointestinal symptoms, health authority figure control and emotional state were the influencing factors of anxiety disorders in patients with functional dyspepsia, among which gastrointestinal symptoms were the most important influencing factors.

Both models have classification and prediction value, but each has its own advantages and disadvantages. The two can complement each other, making the analysis results more practical.

To explore the effects of leisure activities (LA), dietary diversity score (DDS) and body fat levels(BMI, WHtR, WC)on the prevalence of physical-psychological-cognitive comorbidities in the elderly.

Based on the CLHLS—2018 data, the comorbidities of the elderly aged 65 and above from 2017 to 2019 were described. The Chi-square and t test were used to compare differences between groups, and multi-factor logistic regression and restricted cubic splines were used to explore the effects of leisure activities, dietary diversity and body fat indicators on the prevalence of comorbidities in the elderly.

A total of 12 047 subjects were included in the study, and the prevalence of comorbidities was 42.60%, with more females than males. Multivariate regression showed that compared with the Q1 group of LA, the OR and 95% CI of the Q3 group: 0.575 (0.513-0.645); The DDS group OR and 95% CI of the Q3 group: 0.853 (0.774-0.939), P_trend=0.002; Among body fat indicators, only BMI has a significant association. The risk of disease in group Q3 is 1.195 times that of group Q1 (95% CI: 1.065-1.342), P_trend=0.003. Further nonlinear tests indicate that LA and WHtR have non-linear relationships with comorbidities (both P_non-linear< 0.05).

Reasonably controlling body fat levels, increasing engagement in leisure activities, and improving dietary diversity may be effective measures to prevent physical-psychological-cognitive comorbidities in the elderly.

To analyze the mortality trend of ischemic stroke in China from 1982 to 2021, and to explore the effects of age, period and cohort on the mortality rate, so as to provide reference for the scientific prevention and treatment of ischemic stroke.

The study data were derived from the Global Health Data Exchange Platform. Residents aged 5-94 years were used as the study subjects, and a Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of ischemic stroke deaths over time, and the age-period-cohort model was used to assess the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects on the mortality rate.

The national ischemic stroke mortality rate fluctuated from 80.70/100 000 in 1982 to 64.47/100 000 in 2021, with a mean annual percentage change of -0.505%. The mortality rate of ischemic stroke for men and women fluctuated from 91.56/100 000 and 74.26/100 000 in 1982 to 88.32/100 000 and 48.58/100 000 in 2021, with an average annual percentage change of -0.054% and -0.993%, respectively; the mortality rate of ischemic stroke showed an upward trend with increasing age. With regard to the age effect, the mortality risk of ischemic stroke for male and female residents in the age group of 90-94 years increased by 6 032.91 and 4 754.90 times, respectively, compared with that of the age group of 10-14 years. For the period effect, the risk of death from ischemic stroke in 2017—2021 was 3.17 and 1.94 times higher than that in 1982—1986 for men and women, respectively. For cohort effect, the risk of ischemic stroke death for men and women born in 1892—1896 was 135.15 and 109.51 times higher than that born in 2012—2016, respectively.

The mortality rate of ischemic stroke in China generally showed a fluctuating and decreasing trend, in which the mortality rate of male residents was more prominent compared with that of females. The mortality risk of ischemic stroke is higher with increasing age and period.