• Zhihong LIAO , Chunxiang SHI , Dongbin ZHANG , Junxia GU , Shuai HAN , Tao ZHANG , Bin XU , Hongkui ZHOU , Yanqin XU
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1329 -1338.

    To meet the need for weather forecasting, strong convection monitoring and warning services, an hourly 1 km wind gust product across China has been produced using hourly wind gust observations and model forecast data. These data are adopted after the procedure of quality control, space-time matching and fusion analysis. This product is updated at a 5 min lag with the overall RMSEs of 1.9 m/s for independent test and 0.68 m/s for the non-independent test. The results indicate that as the wind speed increases, the number of samples continuously declines, there is a relatively pronounced tendency for the product's error to rise, and the accuracy gradually decreases. However, the quality of this product improves effectively compared to model predictions of high speed of wind gusts. Specifically, the accuracy of wind speed above magnitude 9 has improved by 89.3%, and the relative error has dropped significantly with a reduction ratio of about 27.4%. The development of this product can support disaster mitigation and decision-making related to catastrophic gales and typhoons.

  • Chengzhi YE , Rui CHENG , Zejun DAI , Yang WANG , Jingjing CHEN , Zhenzhen WU
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1258 -1270.

    The "7.20" Zhengzhou torrential rainfall is the most severe storm in the 21st century, characterized by long persistence and intense hourly precipitation. Through comparative analysis of PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer) eddy transport for this instantaneous precipitation process, this study attempts to investigate PBL structure and turbulent diffusion impacts on heavy precipitation intensity. Three comparative experiments are conducted by tuning coefficients of local eddy diffusion and counter-gradient term. Results show that PBL turbulent transport has strong influences on severe hourly precipitation during the "7.20" Zhengzhou torrential rainfall event. It is found through comparison that the decrease in local eddy diffusion noticeably leads to weakening in precipitation intensity and the counter-gradient term mainly results in changes in rainfall location and evolution. Furthermore, PBL eddy transport can modulate large-scale atmospheric conditions for heavy storms, such as local water vapor supply and atmospheric instability. Finally, the eddy vapor and heat transports can notably modify the distribution, intensity and evolution of moisture flux convergence and PBL atmospheric instability, and thus exhibit great influences on this severe storm simulation.

  • Tongtong ZHANG , Han LI , Bingjie HAO , Jin TONG , Lei ZHU , Xuyang GE , Xulin MA
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1241 -1257.

    Significant progress has been made in numerical forecasting of typhoon tracks and intensity, yet meeting the needs of operational forecasting remains challenging. Based on the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, eight sets of combination experiments are conducted with different model initial conditions, initialization times, and microphysical parameterization schemes. The results indicate that the model initial condition exhibits the highest sensitivity in forecasting the track of typhoon Lekima (1909). Representative experiments are selected based on track errors, and sensitivity experiments are conducted to further explore the mechanisms responsible for significant differences in typhoon track forecasts arising from different model initial conditions. The results indicate that accurate forecasting of the strength and extent of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) plays a crucial role in determining the quality of typhoon track predictions. An overestimation of the WPSH in the initial field leads to a subsequent overestimation of WPSH, which blocks the typhoon that moves westward and northward along the WPSH and its moving speed is slowed. This results in significant errors in the typhoon track forecasting. Additionally, forecast errors of the typhoon inner core structure at different stages are related to the predicted typhoon track. Vertical wind shear in the large-scale circulation field may be a significant factor contributing to this error. Moreover, an overestimation of the WPSH extent and intensity leads to a deeper asymmetric distribution of horizontal wind speed near the typhoon, which contributes to the occurrence and development of deep convection. This is an important reason for the slower moving speed of the typhoon.

  • Lingkang ZHOU , Yanzhen KANG , Yi LI , Shan HUA
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1139 -1151.

    To deepen understanding of mesoscale convective systems under the special topography of Hunan province, this paper uses high spatiotemporal resolution data obtained from the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System to study the extreme precipitation process that occurred in Hunan province from 20:00 BT 29 May to 06:00 BT 30 May 2022. Results indicate that this extremely heavy precipitation event occurred in the convergence zone between dry, cold northerly airflow and warm, moist southwesterly jet at 700 hPa. In the initial stage, clustered convections were sporadically triggered and gradually organized into a banded mesoscale convection system. During the development of the banded mesoscale convection system, positive vorticity formed due to environmental vertical wind shear and negative vorticity generated by the cold pool gradually approached equilibrium, which, coupled with the enhancement of the southwesterly jet that transported a large amount of moisture, resulted in rapid development of the banded mesoscale convection system with extreme precipitation reaching 103 mm in one hour. In the maintenance stage, the compensatory downdraft for the updraft within the banded mesoscale convection system suppressed convection generation in the central part of the system. Additionally, the downdraft enhanced raindrops evaporation in the middle and lower levels and transferred horizontal westward momentum to the near-surface, intensifying convection in the eastern part of the banded mesoscale convection system and resulting in splitting of the convection system into a clustered mesoscale convective system. As the convection moved southward, the low-level southwesterly was blocked by Mingyang and Xuefeng mountains. As a result, new convections were mostly triggered on the west side of the Xiangjiang river valley, resulting in larger total precipitation there.

  • Meihui WANG , Yongguang ZHENG , Diannan LI , Shan HUA
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1186 -1201.

    The similarities and differences in environmental conditions between daytime and nighttime torrential precipitation processes in North China have not been fully clarified. Based on precipitation data collected at 981 surface meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and environmental conditions of daytime and nighttime types of torrential precipitation processes in North China during the period from May to September of 2013—2023 are comprehensively analyzed. The objective classification method of the obliquely rotated T-mode principal component analysis is used to classify the circulation situations of daytime and nighttime types of torrential precipitation processes, and the characteristics of environmental physical variables of their corresponding circulation situations are then compared and analyzed. Direct comparison reveals that the environmental conditions of the nighttime heavy precipitation process in North China are different from that of the daytime heavy precipitation process, which provides an important basis for deepening our understanding of the formation mechanism of nighttime heavy rainfall in North China. The results show that the nighttime type torrential precipitation processes in North China develop more often after midnight, and have more occurrences over more concentrated regions, while the daytime processes and the first half-night precipitation of the nighttime processes have stronger convection and they mainly occur in July and August. Moisture of nighttime type is richer than that of daytime type, while CAPE of daytime type is higher than that of nighttime type. The distributions of both 850 hPa and 500 hPa temperature difference and 850 hPa vertical velocity are similar between the two types. Low-level wind speed and 0—1 km vertical wind shear are significantly higher in the nighttime type than in the daytime type. Low troughs and vortices at the edge of the subtropical high are the main synoptic systems influencing torrential precipitation processes in North China. The distribution characteristics of physical variable of the environments in different types of circulation situations are somewhat different. Moisture of deep trough circulation of daytime type and cold vortex circulation of nighttime type are the worst. 0—6 km vertical wind shear (SHR6) and 0—3 km vertical wind shear (SHR3) are generally not strong. SHR6 of daytime torrential precipitation processes is slightly stronger than that of nighttime type, and SHR3 of nighttime torrential precipitation processes is slightly stronger than that of daytime type. The above results indicate that the nighttime heavy rainfall over North China is closely related to the East Asian summer monsoon, which is characterized by abundant water vapor, high θse value, appropriate CAPE value and strong wind speed in the lower atmosphere. The low-level wind field and SHR3 distribution indicate that one of the dominant factors of nighttime heavy rainfall over North China is the diurnal variations of low level jet or strong wind speed.

  • Zhigang CHENG , Jiannong QUAN , Ju LI , Xinyu ZHANG , Jingjiang ZHANG , Qianqian WANG , Yubing PAN
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1313 -1328.

    To obtain high precision wind profile and turbulence products and fully understand the application potential of wind lidar, quality control of Doppler wind lidar with five-beam swing (DBS5) mode is investigated in this work using radial velocity and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Three-dimensional wind and turbulence measurements by the DBS5 mode of wind lidar are systematically evaluated based on measurements of a three-dimensional ultrasonic anemometer mounted on a tower. The results show that the wind lidar exhibits excellent observational accuracy with root mean square errors (RMSEs) as low as 0.4 m/s, 0.1 m/s, 0.1 m/s, 0.1 m/s, and 0.5 m2/s2 for horizontal wind speed (WS), vertical velocity (w), standard deviation of vertical velocity (σw), friction velocity (u*), and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), respectively at the height of 140 m. Moreover, the impacts of time scale, elevation angle, and spatial scale on observational accuracy of wind lidar are investigated. The results indicate that variations in time scale have little impact on observational accuracy, while elevation angle may affect the accuracy of TKE. Additionally, the RMSEs of WS and TKE gradually increase with increasing spatial scale, while the accuracy of w, σw, and u* remain relatively stable. Further investigation of profiles of turbulence and vertical velocity under clear-sky conditions in Beijing indicates that the power spectra of vertical velocity is consistent with the classical −5/3 scaling law at different periods and heights, whereas white noise appears in the high-frequency region and intensifies with increasing height, especially above the boundary layer. Finally, the vertical turbulence of low-level jets (LLJs) observed by Doppler wind lidar is stronger below the jet height and weaker in and above the jet height.

  • Minghui SANG , Shoujuan SHU , Wenjuan LI , Xiaoling SHEN
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1152 -1168.

    Back-building MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) are highly conductive to sudden, localized short-duration heavy rainfall. In order to reveal the characteristics of this type of MCS and its association with heavy rainfall, this study systematically studies spatial and temporal distribution of back-building MCSs that triggered short-duration heavy rainfall during the warm seasons from 2015 to 2021 in Zhejiang province. Different organizational forms and environmental thermodynamic factors of different types are also explored. The results show that back-building MCSs in Zhejiang province exhibit significant monthly and diurnal variation patterns, i.e., MCSs mainly occur in June and July with peak hourly rainfall intensities of 30 and 50 mm in these two months, respectively. The MCS primarily form between 11:00 and 14:00 BT, with the highest frequency of formation occurring between 12:00 and 13:00 BT. The majority of MCSs have a duration of 12 h or less, with 10 h duration being the most common. The start time of backward propagation shows a quasi-bimodal pattern, which is 2—3 h later than the main formation time of the MCS. For 90% of the cases, the time of maximum hourly rainfall intensity occur within 0—2.5 h after the onset of the backward propagation. Based on the evolution characteristics of convective system organization, the back-building MCSs with short-duration heavy rainfall in Zhejiang province can be categorized into four types: Advective, quasi-stationary, turning, and propagating MCS, with about 42% occuring under the forcing of weak synoptic-scale system. The MCS usually occurs in an environment with medium convective available potential energy (CAPE), high humidity and appropriate vertical wind shear, but with different environmental factors for different types. The quasi-stationary MCSs account for the largest proportion (44.7%) and are characterized by significant environmental dynamic features, including strong atmospheric instability, large steering flow, and mid-to-lower-level vertical wind shear. They result in relatively weak maximum hourly rainfall intensity (the median is 50 mm/h). Propagating MCSs (accounting for about 17%) exhibit more distinct environmental thermodynamic characteristics with large CAPE and precipitable water (PW), and lead to the strongest maximum hourly rainfall intensity (the median is 70 mm/h).

  • Honglan LIU , Qiang ZHANG , Tingjia ZHANG , Chao CHU , Junguo ZHANG , Lijuan NIU , Yali LI
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1229 -1240.

    In 2023, the central part of the Hexi Corridor experienced an extreme high temperature and drought that would occur once every 60 years, which adversely affected local agricultural production and ecological environment, causing serious economic losses. This study uses various observational datasets to discuss the characteristics and effects of the high-temperature and drought in the central Hexi Corridor in 2023 from perspectives of meteorology, hydrology, ecology and agriculture. We further examine the responses of summer precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor to anomalous atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The datasets used in this study include monthly precipitation and temperature data during 1951—2023 from six national basic stations in the central Hexi Corridor, the Heihe river runoff data from Yingluoxia hydrological station in the upper reaches of the Heihe river, the FY-3D/MERSI satellite data, the GF-1 satellite data, and the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data, and 88 atmospheric circulation indexes and 26 SST indexes provided by National Climate Centre. The results show that precipitation and average temperature in the central part of the Hexi Corridor from May to September 2023 both exceeded historical extremes, with precipitation reached a new historical low and temperature reached a new historical high. The combined effect of high temperature and low precipitation significantly exacerbated the intensity of drought. In the middle Qilian mountains, the average snow cover area decreased by 45.8%, the annual runoff decreased by 15%, the main reservoir area decreased by 25.8%—66.0%. The characteristics of drought spread are meteorological drought—hydrological drought—ecological and agricultural drought. We find that precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor from May to September had significant multi-scale oscillations in 5, 11, 17 and 32 a, and multiple time scales showed that 2023 was in a period of less oscillation. When the drought in the central Hexi Corridor was observed, the atmospheric circulation anomalies included a southward shifted ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high, an eastward shifted ridge point of the western extension, a westward shifted ridge point of the South Asian high pressure, a weaker than normal Indian low, a smaller polar vortex area in the northern hemisphere and Asia, a stronger blocking high in the middle and high latitudes of Asia, and increased longitudinal coverage of the westerly circulation in Eurasia. Meanwhile, positive SST anomalies occurred in the Nino3 area and the west wind drift region, while negative SST anomalies occurred in the Kuroshio region.

  • Jie GAO , Xinyao RONG , Yi ZHANG , Zhen FU , Pengfei LIN
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1301 -1312.

    Atmosphere-wave interaction is a crucial dynamic process at the air-sea interface, with the sea surface momentum roughness length being a key variable in the coupled atmosphere-wave modelling system. The Global-Regional Integrated Forecast System (GRIST), a next-generation unstructured-grid unified weather and climate modelling system, has been independently designed and developed in China in recent years. By employing the ESMF/NUOPC framework, GRIST has been integrated with the WW3 model to create the coupled atmosphere-wave modelling system (GRIST-WW3). In this system, the atmospheric model provides 10 m wind fields over the sea surface to drive the wave model, while the sea surface roughness, derived from a wave parameterization scheme, is fed back into the atmospheric model. Preliminary results show that the GRIST-WW3 system accurately captures spatial distribution of sea surface wind field and significant wave height, both of which agree well with observations. However, in regions such as the Southern Hemisphere's westerlies and areas near typhoons, where the wind speeds are notably high, the model tends to overestimate 10 m wind speed and significant wave height. The two-way coupling process increases the average and dispersion of sea surface roughness, reducing wind speed biases in areas of high wind speed. In terms of typhoon simulation, improvements in the simulation of typhoon trajectory and 10 m maximum wind speed are evident with the atmosphere-wave coupled modelling system, although the minimum sea level pressure remains unaffected. In the coupled atmosphere-wave modelling system, the wave parameterization scheme of sea surface roughness is essential for accurately simulating high wind speed areas. The optimization of the scheme should be guided by the atmospheric model's bias characteristics, with the primary goal of reducing bias in high wind speed regions.

  • Xuerong ZHANG , Yifan LIAO , Meijuan PU , Lianshou CHEN , Ying LI
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2025, 83(5): 1202 -1216.

    In this study, 67 Tropical Cyclones (TCs) crossing Jiangsu province are identified from a total of 2440 western North Pacific TCs during the 73 a period of 1949—2021 using the best-track data archived at the China Meteorological Administration's Shanghai Typhoon Institute (CMA-STI). Temporal and spatial characteristics of activities and potential destructiveness associated with TCs crossing Jiangsu province are investigated. Results show that TCs crossing Jiangsu province, which mainly generated in July and August over a broader region, account for 2.7% and 10.2% of TCs over the western North Pacific and those making landfall in China, respectively. TCs crossing Jiangsu province made landfall in China mainly in June—November, with the highest landfalling frequency and widest landfalling distribution in August. The landfalling routes of TCs crossing Jiangsu are categorized into 14 types (T1—T14), of which the route T4 for TCs that made landfall first in Taiwan, China and then in Fujian accounts for the highest proportion. The TC tracks crossing Jiangsu are classified into four types. The moving directions in Jiangsu and overall track morphologies of TCs corresponding to these four types are closely related to the westward extension and northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high. TCs entered and left mainly from the southeast and east coast of Jiangsu respectively during July—September. The entering locations of TCs crossing Jiangsu shift northward from June to August and retreat southward in September—October, while leaving locations shift westward and then retreat eastward, due to seasonal adjustments of large-scale systems, such as the western Pacific subtropical high and monsoon circulation. The track density of TCs in Jiangsu generally decreases from southeast to northwest, with most of the TCs moving northward or northeastward. Spatial distributions of track density and average velocity vectors of TCs crossing Jiangsu are characterized by significant monthly variations. There is a significant increase in potential destructiveness of TCs in Jiangsu (JS-PDI) during the period of 1949—2021, corresponding to increases in their landfall intensity and average intensity in Jiangsu. The JS-PDI in August is considerably higher than in other months. In agreement with the distribution of average TC intensity in Jiangsu, larger JS-PDI values are mainly distributed in the coastal region and Southeast of Jiangsu, and the locations of maximum JS-PDI agree well with the TC track density.

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