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The multi-parameter combined perturbation applied to ensemble forecast of squall lines
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Dongxu CAI, Jinzhong MIN, Yu Du
Acta Meteorologica Sinica | 2025, 83(5) : 1271 - 1285
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Acta Meteorologica Sinica | 2025, 83(5): 1271-1285
Articles
The multi-parameter combined perturbation applied to ensemble forecast of squall lines
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Dongxu CAI, Jinzhong MIN, Yu Du
Affiliations
  • Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China
Published: 2025-10-10 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240166
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The strong cold pool is pivotal in the genesis of severe gales associated with squall lines, and its intensity simulation is closely related to parameter settings of cloud microphysical and boundary layer processes in the model. Despite parameter uncertainties, it remains challenging to apply reasonable parameter perturbations to squall line systems. To improve the performance of convective-scale numerical models in the forecast of squall line systems, based on the WRF (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) model, five key parameters are selected from the cloud microphysical process and the boundary layer process to carry out sensitivity tests for the weak simulation of the cold pool associated with squall lines. Subsequently, the joint perturbation of the sensitive parameters is carried out, and the influence of this method on the simulation of a squall line process in Jiangsu is discussed. The results indicate that adjusting parameters that influence evaporation can significantly affect the estimation of the cold pool. Specifically, the parameter CONSTB, which reflects the impact of raindrop size on its terminal velocity, and the parameter VF1R, which accounts for the influence of surrounding airflow on raindrop behavior, exhibit the highest sensitivity to the cold pool dynamics. In the single-parameter and multi-parameter combined perturbation experiments, the simulated 2 m temperature in the cold zone of the squall line is 1—2℃ lower than that of the control experiment, which effectively overcomes the problem of weak simulation of the cold pool. In addition, the joint perturbation of CONSTB and VF1R parameters has a notable positive impact on forecast accuracy, with the simulated 10 m maximum wind speed being the most accurate in comparison to actual observations. Results show that the multi-parameter joint perturbation method for squall line cold pools effectively captures the uncertainty of parameters within physical parameterization schemes and improves cold pool simulation, thereby enhancing the accuracy of squall line gale predictions.

Squall line  /  Cold pool  /  Convection-permitting ensemble forecast  /  Joint multi-parameter perturbation
Dongxu CAI, Jinzhong MIN, Yu Du. The multi-parameter combined perturbation applied to ensemble forecast of squall lines[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2025 , 83 (5) : 1271 -1285 . DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240166
Year 2025 volume 83 Issue 5
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Article Info
doi: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240166
  • Receive Date:2024-09-23
  • Online Date:2026-03-27
  • Published:2025-10-10
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  • Received:2024-09-23
  • Revised:2025-01-17
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    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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