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Significant progress has been made in numerical forecasting of typhoon tracks and intensity, yet meeting the needs of operational forecasting remains challenging. Based on the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, eight sets of combination experiments are conducted with different model initial conditions, initialization times, and microphysical parameterization schemes. The results indicate that the model initial condition exhibits the highest sensitivity in forecasting the track of typhoon Lekima (1909). Representative experiments are selected based on track errors, and sensitivity experiments are conducted to further explore the mechanisms responsible for significant differences in typhoon track forecasts arising from different model initial conditions. The results indicate that accurate forecasting of the strength and extent of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) plays a crucial role in determining the quality of typhoon track predictions. An overestimation of the WPSH in the initial field leads to a subsequent overestimation of WPSH, which blocks the typhoon that moves westward and northward along the WPSH and its moving speed is slowed. This results in significant errors in the typhoon track forecasting. Additionally, forecast errors of the typhoon inner core structure at different stages are related to the predicted typhoon track. Vertical wind shear in the large-scale circulation field may be a significant factor contributing to this error. Moreover, an overestimation of the WPSH extent and intensity leads to a deeper asymmetric distribution of horizontal wind speed near the typhoon, which contributes to the occurrence and development of deep convection. This is an important reason for the slower moving speed of the typhoon.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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