Full
Outline
To identify the risk factors of stroke in hypertension patients and construct nomogram based on the survey data of elderly health in Fanjingshan area, and to provide reference for stroke risk prevention and control in this area.
In 2025, proportional sampling method will be adopted to select elderly residents aged ≥65 years old and living locally for ≥6 months to carry out health survey. LASSO-Logistic regression was used to screen stroke risk factors in elderly hypertensive patients to construct nomograms. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), calibration curves, Brier values, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the model. The robustness of the model was evaluated by repeated ten-fold cross validation.
A total of 1 670 hypertensive patients were enrolled, of whom 245 had stroke. LASSO-Logistic regression analysis showed that impaired instrumental ability of daily living (IADL), waist circumference, average monthly income <3 000 yuan, tea drinking, sleep duration>8 hours, heart disease, self-rated health as average, alcohol abstinence were risk factors for stroke, and age ≥85 years old and alcohol consumption were protective factors. The model discriminated well (AUC=0.735), the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (H-L test) statistic was 8.749 (P=0.364), and the Brier value was 0.112, suggesting that the model was well calibrated; DCA indicated that the model had a clinical net benefit within the specified risk threshold range; repeated 10-fold cross validation results further confirmed its robustness.
The nomogram model can be used as an effective tool to assess stroke risk in elderly hypertensive population and formulate individualized prevention and intervention strategies.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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