Full
Outline
To reveal fluctuation patterns and cyclical characteristics of viral hepatitis incidence in China and to forecast its short-term trend, thereby supporting the optimization of prevention and control strategies.
Based on the monthly incidence data of viral hepatitis in China from January 2015 to January 2025 by the National Disease Control and Prevention Bureau, this study employed the Census X-13 Seasonal Adjustment Method to analyze the epidemiological patterns and temporal trends of viral hepatitis during this period. The HP filter was applied to dissect the cyclical patterns of incidence.Forecasting was conducted using a machine learning model (long short-term memory, LSTM) and a time-series model(SARIMA), and and the predictive performance of the models was evaluated.
The number of viral hepatitis cases showed an overall increasing trend, with clear seasonal fluctuations observed each year, and the annual peak occurred in March—April. From January 2015 to January 2025, the incidence of viral hepatitis in China was divided into three complete cyclical cycles, with an average cycle length of 40 months. Notably, the amplitude of these cyclical fluctuations was unstable over time.The mean relative prediction errors for the LSTM model and the SARIMA model were 6.37% and 6.71%, respectively. The LSTM model demonstrated lower root mean square error and mean absolute error, indicating superior predictive performance.
Combining cyclical analysis and machine learning models can effectively improve prediction accuracy,contributing to achieving the goal of “Healthy China 2030”.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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