Full
Outline
To use the adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess epidemic periods and excess case numbers of hand, foot, and mouth disease in various age groups in Shenzhen from 2015 to 2024, providing a scientific basis for optimizing prevention and control strategies and conducting disease burden assessments.
Using the weekly incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shenzhen from 2015 to 2024, an adjusted Serfling regression model was established to estimate the baseline and epidemic threshold of the disease by age group, identify periods of excess epidemic, and calculate the number of excess cases.
From 2015 to 2024, a total of 642 903 cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) were reported in Shenzhen. The periods of excess incidence were predominantly concentrated between May and July. Across the entire population, these excess-incidence periods spanned a total of 89 weeks, with a weekly average of 1 422 excess cases, accounting for 35.11% of all reported cases. By age group, the weekly average numbers of excess cases were 802, 601, 261, and 131 for the 0-3 year, 3-6 year, 6-9 year, and >9 year groups, respectively. The corresponding proportions of excess cases relative to total cases in each group were 41.03%, 40.36%, 44.57%, and 46.03%, respectively. Furthermore, the 0-3 year age group consistently experienced an earlier onset of excess-incidence periods compared to other age groups, and both the duration of these periods and the average number of weekly excess cases were higher in this group than in all others.
The adjusted Serfling regression model provided a good fit for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shenzhen. Children under 6 years of age bore the highest disease burden, and implementing surveillance and early warning systems specifically targeting children aged 0-3 years could effectively shift the early warning threshold forward.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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