Full
Outline
To evaluate the temporal variations in short-term mortality risks associated with ozone (O3) exposure for circulatory and respiratory diseases in the Sichuan Basin under the Clean Air Action, and to provide evidence for regional air pollution control and public health interventions.
Mortality data for circulatory and respiratory diseases were obtained from Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and air pollution data (O3, NO2, and PM2.5) were obtained from the China High Air Pollutants dataset. A two-stage analysis was applied to estimate the short-term risks of circulatory, respiratory, and combined circulatory-respiratory mortality associated with O3 exposure during 2014—2022. In the first stage, quasi-Poisson generalized linear models were used to estimate the county-specific associations between O3 and mortality. In the second stage, random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool the estimates. Longitudinal meta-regression with a nonlinear time term was further used to assess temporal variations in risk. Two-pollutant models and subgroup analyses were conducted to examine the effects of co-pollutants and population heterogeneity on these temporal variations.
Short-term mortality risks associated with O3 exhibited significant nonlinear temporal variations across all three mortality outcomes (P<0.001), with an increase during 2014—2016, a decline during 2017—2019, and a subsequent rise after 2020. For combined circulatory-respiratory mortality, the excess risk (ER) associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 rose from 0.86% (95% CI: 0.52%-1.20%) in 2014 to 1.51% (1.30%-1.72%) in 2016, then decreased to 0.93% (0.75%-1.11%) in 2019, and increased again to 1.58% (1.37%-1.79%) in 2022. This trend remained significant (P<0.01) in two-pollutant models, although the effects during 2016—2018 were attenuated, particularly for respiratory mortality. Subgroup analyses by sex and age showed similar temporal patterns, with overall higher risks in females and individuals aged ≥65 years.
From 2014 to 2022, short-term mortality risks associated with O3 in the Sichuan Basin showed a pattern of increase, decline, and re-increase. The post-2020 rebound suggests that future air quality management should strengthen coordinated control of PM2.5, NO2, and O3, and implement more targeted public health interventions in the context of population aging and climate change.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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