Full
Outline
Circadian rhythm syndrome (CircS) is an emerging syndrome integrating metabolic disorders, sleep disturbances, and depressive symptoms, which is highly prevalent among occupationally exposed populations such as those working in shifts. This study aims to construct and validate a CircS risk prediction model suitable for occupational populations, providing a quantitative tool for its early identification.
Based on three rounds of follow-up data (from 2021 to 2025) from the Southwest Occupational Population Cohort, 26 693 employees without CircS at baseline were included. The population was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Predictive factors were screened from 35 candidate factors (demographic, behavioral, psychological, and clinical indicators) using Lasso-Cox regression, and a nomogram was constructed. The model’s discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC), calibration, and other metrics were evaluated.
During a median follow-up period of 4 years, a total of 5 540 cases (20.76%) of new-onset CircS occurred. The final model incorporated 14 predictive factors, including age, body mass index (BMI), glycosylated hemoglobin, white blood cell count, uric acid, fatty liver, marital status, smoking, alcohol consumption, sleep quality, and well-being. The model demonstrated good predictive performance in the validation set, with an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI: 0.758-0.784) for the nomogram total score, outperforming risk prediction models based solely on demographic factors (AUC=0.590) or behavioral and psychological factors (AUC=0.602). The calibration curve showed a high degree of consistency between predicted and actual risks. After grouping the nomogram total score according to quartiles, the incidence risk in the highest risk group (Q4) was 16.00 times higher than that in the lowest risk group (Q1) (HR=16.00, 95% CI: 12.54-20.42).
This study constructed and validated a nomogram model integrating multidimensional indicators to predict the risk of CircS, demonstrating good performance and providing a scientific basis for achieving precise prevention and graded management of CircS.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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