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Global, regional and national burden of myocarditis in young and middle-aged people aged 15-49 years from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction by 2050
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Chi YAN1, 3, Xue-fang LI1, Xia-yan ZANG1, Fei LIN1, 2, Guang-jian LU3
Modern Preventive Medicine | 2026, 53(8) : 1501 - 1507
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Modern Preventive Medicine | 2026, 53(8): 1501-1507
• Disease Control and Prevention •
Global, regional and national burden of myocarditis in young and middle-aged people aged 15-49 years from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction by 2050
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Chi YAN1, 3, Xue-fang LI1, Xia-yan ZANG1, Fei LIN1, 2, Guang-jian LU3
Affiliations
  • The Life Science Research Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan Medical University, Xinxiang, Henan 453100, China
Published: 2026-04-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511224
Outline
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Objective

To assess the global burden of myocarditis among individuals aged 15-49 years from 1990 to 2021 and to project disease trends up to 2050, providing a basis for prevention and control.

Methods

Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, the assessment employed age-standardized rates, joinpoint regression, correlation analysis with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and a Bayesian prediction framework.

Results

In 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of myocarditis in this population showed an upward trend, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate decreased significantly. The burden was higher among males. The highest ASPR was observed in high-SDI regions, and the most significant mortality risk was found in middle-high SDI regions. The number of cases is projected to potentially increase by 2050, although the standardized rates are expected to continue declining.

Conclusion

Targeted intervention strategies for high-risk populations and regions are necessary, along with improving medical standards in low-SDI areas and reducing health inequalities through global cooperation.

Myocarditis  /  Young and middle-aged people  /  Disease burden
燕驰, 李雪芳, 臧夏炎, 林飞, 鲁广建. 1990—2021年15至49岁中青年心肌炎的全球、区域及国家负担及其至2050年趋势预测. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (8) : 1501 -1507 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511224
Chi YAN, Xue-fang LI, Xia-yan ZANG, Fei LIN, Guang-jian LU. Global, regional and national burden of myocarditis in young and middle-aged people aged 15-49 years from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction by 2050[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (8) : 1501 -1507 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511224
Appendix
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Year 2026 volume 53 Issue 8
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Article Info
doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511224
  • Receive Date：2025-11-14
  • Online Date：2026-11-02
  • Published：2026-04-25
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  • Received：2025-11-14
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    The Life Science Research Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan Medical University, Xinxiang, Henan 453100, China
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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