Full
Outline
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mushroom poisoning in Guizhou Province from 2017 to 2024. To compare the predictive performance of the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) versus the combined Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-Support Vector Regression (SARIMA-SVR) model in forecasting incidence trends.
Data on mushroom poisoning events from 2017 to 2024 were obtained from the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System of Guizhou Province for descriptive epidemiological analysis. Using data from 2017 to 2023 as the training ser and data from 2024 as the testing set, SARIMA and SARIMA-SVR combined models were constructed. Model performance was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE).
A total of 2 694 mushroom poisoning outbreaks were reported during 2017 to 2024 Guizhou Province, involving 8 987 cases and 31 deaths. Mushroom poisoning is highly prevalent summer and autumn (June to September), with higher rates observed in the northeastern region. The most affected age group was 20 to 59 years, and households were primary setting of occurrence. In terms of model predictive performance, the SARIMA model could relatively well capture the overall trend of incidence, but the SARIMA—SVR combined model exhibited superior predictive performance.
Mushroom poisoning remains highly prevalent in Guizhou Province, exhibiting distinct seasonal and geographical patterns. The SARIMA-SVR combined model provides better forecasting accuracy and can serve as a valuable tool for surveillance, early warning, and preventive interventions.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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