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Trends in coronary heart disease mortality in China from 1992 to 2021: an age-period-cohort model analysis
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Xia XIA, Sheng-bi WU, Li DIAO
Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(1) : 33 - 39
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Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(1): 33-39
• Epidemiology and Statistical Methods •
Trends in coronary heart disease mortality in China from 1992 to 2021: an age-period-cohort model analysis
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Xia XIA, Sheng-bi WU, Li DIAO
Affiliations
  • People’s Hospital of Dazu District, Chongqing 402360, China
Published: 2025-01-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407061
Outline
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Objective

To analyze the trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in China from 1992 to 2021, providing a basis for adjusting and optimizing CHD prevention and treatment policies.

Methods

This study employed the Join point regression model to calculate the annual percentage change in mortality trends, exploring variations in CHD mortality over consecutive time periods. Additionally, an age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to compute effect coefficients, assessing the individual impacts of age, period, and birth cohort on CHD mortality risk.

Results

From 1992 to 2021, the overall mortality rates for CHD in both genders showed an upward trend, with average annual percentage changes of 0.584%, 0.979%, and 0.097%, respectively. The APC model estimates revealed that the mortality risk for the age group of 90 to 94 was 614.97 times higher for males and 519.08 times higher for females compared to the age group of 15 to 19. In terms of period effects, the CHD mortality risk for males and females from 2017 to 2021 was 2.58 times and 1.78 times higher, respectively, than that from 1992 to 1996. Regarding cohort effects, individuals born between 1902 and 1906 had a CHD mortality risk 25.07 times and 24.41 times higher for males and females, respectively, compared to those born between 2002 and 2006.

Conclusion

The overall CHD mortality rate in China is on the rise, with a focus on male and elderly populations. Age, period, and birth cohort each have independent effects on CHD mortality risk. Therefore, a multifaceted approach is necessary to advance preventive measures, control risk factors, and reduce mortality risks among residents.

Coronary heart disease  /  Mortality trends  /  Join point regression model  /  APC model
夏霞, 吴生碧, 刁丽. 1992—2021年中国冠心病死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (1) : 33 -39 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407061
Xia XIA, Sheng-bi WU, Li DIAO. Trends in coronary heart disease mortality in China from 1992 to 2021: an age-period-cohort model analysis[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (1) : 33 -39 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407061
Year 2025 volume 52 Issue 1
53
27
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407061
  • Receive Date:2024-07-06
  • Online Date:2026-10-29
  • Published:2025-01-10
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  • Received:2024-07-06
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    People’s Hospital of Dazu District, Chongqing 402360, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
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Number of
genus
种数
Number of
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Percentage of
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Number of
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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