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Analysis of risk factors and construction of risk prediction model for readmission of schizophrenic patients
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Ming-ru HOU1, Jun WANG2, Jian-hua XUE3, Xian-wen LI4, Qiong-ni CHEN5
Modern Preventive Medicine | 2024, 51(5) : 797 - 802
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Modern Preventive Medicine | 2024, 51(5): 797-802
• Epidemiology and Statistical Methods •
Analysis of risk factors and construction of risk prediction model for readmission of schizophrenic patients
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Ming-ru HOU1, Jun WANG2, Jian-hua XUE3, Xian-wen LI4, Qiong-ni CHEN5
Affiliations
  • Department of General Psychiatry, The Affiliated Mental Health Center of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214151, China
Published: 2024-03-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202309290
Outline
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Objective

To explore the risk factors of re-admission of schizophrenic patients within one year after discharge and to establish a risk prediction model of re-admission.

Methods

By using cluster sampling, 353 inpatients with schizophrenia in a large mental hospital from July to December 2020 were collected from the in-patient electronic medical record and discharge follow-up system. Based on their demographic and clinical data, Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors of re-admission within one year after discharge.

Results

Four predictive factors were included: course of disease ≥ 20 years (OR=2.373, 95%CI: 1.242-4.533), combination of antipsychotics (OR=2.07, 95%CI: 1.211-3.538), underlying disease (OR=1.893, 95%CI: 1.111-3.226), and harmful behavior (OR=11.219, 95%CI: 5.544-22.701). The prediction model fitted well (χ2 =3.444, P=0.903): the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the subjects was 0.805, the sensitivity was 82.6%,and the specificity was 65.6%. The results of Bootstrap re-sampling (n=1 000 times) showed that the model was stable.

Conclusion

The predictive model based on demographic and clinical data can be used as a tool to identify the schizophrenic patients at high risk of re-admission in the early stage.

Schizophrenia  /  Psychiatric re-admission  /  Risk factor  /  Risk prediction model  /  Prevention
Ming-ru HOU, Jun WANG, Jian-hua XUE, Xian-wen LI, Qiong-ni CHEN. Analysis of risk factors and construction of risk prediction model for readmission of schizophrenic patients[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2024 , 51 (5) : 797 -802 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202309290
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Year 2024 volume 51 Issue 5
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Article Info
doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202309290
  • Receive Date：2023-09-17
  • Online Date：2026-03-19
  • Published：2024-03-10
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History
  • Received：2023-09-17
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Affiliations
    Department of General Psychiatry, The Affiliated Mental Health Center of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214151, China
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