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To establish a risk assessment model of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) and validate the model.
The influencing factors of CMM were determined by meta-analysis, and the population exposure rate was obtained by consulting a large cohort study.The CMM risk assessment model was constructed based on Harvard cancer risk index method. The model was verified by the data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The SPSS 25.0 software was used to calculate the area under the receiver operator characteristic ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and Hosmer-Lemshow goodness-of-fit test to verify the effect of the model.
A total of 20 articles were included in the meta- analysis. Age, sex, place of residence, education, economic level, BMI, waistline, night sleep, depression, irregular diet, and insufficient intake of vegetables and fruits were the risk factors of CMM. Concerning the model validation results, the area under the ROC curve was 0.712 (95%CI: 0.696-0.728), the Jordan index was 1.42, the sensitivity was 65%, the specificity was 66.1%, and the result of Hosmer-Lemshow goodness-of-fit test was χ2=10.652 (P=0.222).
The CMM risk assessment model based on meta-analysis has good predictive performance and can be used as a tool for CMM risk assessment to guide clinical identification of CMM high-risk groups and implement intervention measures.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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