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To analyze the incidence and mortality trend of stroke in Chinese population from 2005 to 2019, and to predict the incidence and death from 2020 to 2029.
The incidence and mortality data of stroke in Chinese population according to global burden of disease (GBD) were used. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the changing trend of stroke incidence and mortality in the population, and the annual change percentage and average annual change percentage and their 95% confidence interval were calculated. The GM（1，1）model was established by R, and the incidence and mortality of stroke in China from 2020 to 2029 were predicted.
The incidence of stroke in China showed an upward trend from 2005 to 2019. The incidence of stroke in men increased from 197.94/100 000 in 2005 to 269.17/100 000 in 2019, with an average annual increase of 2.196% and the fastest increase during 2010 and 2014. The stroke incidence in women rose from 198.57/100 000 in 2005 to 284.46/100 000 in 2019, with an average annual increase of 2.616% and the fastest increase during 2017 and 2019. The male mortality rate showed a slight upward trend. It was predicted that in 2029, the incidence of stroke in China may reach 340.93/100 000 for males and 376.67/100 000 for females, and the mortality rate may reach 191.44/100 000 for males and 126.52/100 000 for females.
The study shows that the incidence of stroke is on the rise in China, and the incidence of stroke in females is higher than that in males. The mortality rate of stroke is on the rise in males. Male and female incidence and male mortality may continue to rise from 2020 to 2029, and stroke prevention and control still need to be strengthened.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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