To analyze and forecast the epidemic trends and disease burden of self-harm in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide data for evaluating and formulating self-harm related prevention and treatment measures.

We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on self-harm incidence rates and mortality rates in China between 1990 and 2019. We projected the rates of self-harm in China from 2020 to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of self-harm in China was 51.24/100 000 and the age-standardized mortality rate was 6.8/100 000. From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of self-harm showed a decreasing trend in both male and female (EAPC<0). The results of APC analysis showed that in the age effect, the RR value of incidence peaked in 20-24 years old and over 70 years old, and the RR value of mortality increased rapidly in people over 70 years old.The period effect results showed that the overall morbidity and mortality risk of Chinese residents showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019.Birth cohort results showed that the risk of morbidity and mortality for both male and female increased slowly and then decreased gradually with the change of birth year, and the population born between 1950 and 1954 had a higher risk of morbidity and mortality. By 2030, the ASIR of male self-harm is expected to decrease to 28.38/100 000 and that of female is 57.02/100 000. The ASMR of male decreased to 7.53/100 000 and that of female decreased to 3.90/100 000.

Although the burden of self-harm disease among Chinese residents shows an overall downward trend, it is still one of the diseases with a high burden of disease. Young people aged 20-24 and elderly people over 70 years old are targeted for life assistance and psychological counseling, and attention is paid to the physical and mental health of women who have attempted suicide, so as to reduce the burden of disease caused by self-harm.