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To analyze the trends of low back pain (LBP) burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and project future trends through 2036.
Data on prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Joinpoint regression analyzed trends from 1990 to 2021, while Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling projected trends from 2022 to 2036.
From 1990 to 2021, while total LBP cases increased in China, age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and DALY rates showed overall declining trends. Females consistently bore higher burden than males. Projections indicate age-standardized incidence rates will increase for males but decrease for females by 2036.
China demonstrated reduced LBP burden indicators during 1990-2021, with persistently higher burden among females. Projections suggest diverging future trends between genders, with rising male incidence but declining female incidence.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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