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To analyze the mortality rate and trend of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in China from 2005 to 2018 and predict its future trend, providing a basis for effective prevention and control.
NMSC mortality data from 2005 to 2018 were collected from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. The Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) to reflect temporal trends. An age-period-cohort model with intrinsic estimator algorithm was applied to analyze age, period, and cohort effects. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximation was employed to predict NMSC mortality trends in China from 2019 to 2035.
From 2005 to 2018, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of NMSC in China was 0.34 per 100 000, showing an upward trend with an AAPC of 5.6% (95%CI: 3.8%-7.4%). The ASMR was higher in males (0.41 per 100 000) than in females (0.26 per 100 000),but the increase was slightly faster in females (AAPC=6.2%). Rural areas had a higher ASMR (0.40 per 100 000) than urban areas (0.30 per 100 000), but the AAPC was only half that of urban areas. The mortality risk of NMSC increased with age. The cohort effect showed a declining trend in ASMR. The predicted ASMR of NMSC in China is expected to continue rising to 0.78 per 100 000(95%CI: 0.10-1.46 per 100 000) during 2019 and 2035.
The ASMR of NMSC in China exhibited an upward trend from 2005 to 2018, with variations by age, sex, and region. NMSC remains a public health concern requiring sustained attention.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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