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To analyze the trend of Colon and rectum cancer (CRC) burden attributable to low physical activity in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide a reference for the development of effective public health strategies and healthcare resource allocation.
Relying on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database, this study focused on the data of CRC burden attributable to low physical activity, including death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), among people ≥25 years old in China. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends and turning points of disease burden changes, age, period and cohort effects of mortality were estimated with the age-period-cohort model, and autoregressive integral moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the disease burden dynamics in 2022-2030.
Between 1990 and 2021, the number of deaths, crude death rate, number of DALYs, and crude DALY rate attributable to low physical activity for CRC in China increased, with the number of deaths rising from 5 735 to 16 698, and the crude death rate from 0.78/100 000 to 1.53/100 000; the number of DALYs increased from 128 353 to 320 464 years. Crude DALY rate increased from 17.55/100 000 to 29.44/100 000.Joinpoint analysis showed that the mortality and DALY rates were increasing; the total population had a fluctuating downward trend in the standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALY rate, with an average annual percentage change of -0.21%(P>0.05) and -0.29(P<0.05) for males and females, respectively. Gender differences were observed in age-standardized mortality and DALY rate trends. The age effect showed that the CRC mortality rate attributable to low physical activity basically increased with age in China, and the relative risk (RR) ranged from 0.04 to 10.75 in each age group; the period effect showed that the mortality rate monotonically increased with the period, and the RR ranged from 0.69 to 1.59 in each period; and the cohort effect showed that the mortality rate progressively decreased with the development of birth cohorts, and the RR of each birth cohort ranged from 0.25 to 5.23. The differences in the effects between genders were not significant.The ARIMA model showed that the burden will continue to increase in China from 2022 to 2030.
The burden of CRC attributable to low physical activity in China showed a significant upward trend from 1990 to 2021, with gender differences. The age, period, and cohort effects of its mortality risk are evident. Targeted measures are urgently needed to effectively curb the rising disease burden.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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