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To construct and validate a prediction model for high-risk sexual behaviors among rural residents aged 50 and above, in order to achieve early identification of high-risk groups and provide a scientific basis for the formulation of precise intervention measures.
From February to April 2024, 50-year-old and above permanent residents were conveniently sampled in rural areas of Luzhou City, Sichuan Province as the modeling group. From May to June, residents of the same age group were selected in rural areas of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture using the same method as the validation group. LASSO regression was used to screen variables, and then Logistic regression analysis was conducted on the screened variables. Variables with a P value less than 0.05 were used to construct a prediction model, and its predictive performance was evaluated.
The incidence rate of high-risk sexual behavior in this study was 28.52% (154/540).The predictive model included five predictive factors: gender, sexual behavior under the influence of alcohol, history of sexually transmitted disease infection, having a regular sexual partner, and social support, providing a scientific basis for the prediction of high-risk sexual behavior. The area under the ROC curve of the predictive model in the modeling group and the validation group was 0.940(95% CI:0.914-0.965) and 0.971(95% CI:0.951-0.992), respectively. The calibration curves showed good consistency, and the P values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were all greater than 0.05.The DCA had high positive yield between 1%-93% and 2%-98%, respectively.
The prediction model based on LASSO-Logistic regression analysis demonstrated good predictive performance and potential for practical application.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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