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To analyze the disease burden trends of stroke and its subtypes in China.
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, descriptive statistical analysis and Joinpoint regression models were employed to examine trends from 1990 to 2021, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict disease burden up to 2036.
From 1990 to 2021, the number of stroke cases in China increased by 142.65%, yet the standardized incidence rate decreased by 9.78%, and the mortality rate dropped by 43.01%. Subtype analysis revealed a significant increase of 35.72% in the incidence of ischemic stroke, while the mortality rate from subarachnoid hemorrhage declined by 82.70%. In 2021, the male-to-female ratio of incidence rose to 1.73, and the decrease in the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rate was 16 percentage points higher for women than for men, indicating a widening gender disparity compared to 1990. The age distribution exhibited a bimodal pattern, with the highest incidence rate observed in the 75-79 age group (2 005.45 per 100 000), and the largest decrease in standardized DALYs occurred in the 55-59 age group, increasing by 57.61% compared to 1990. Attributable risk analysis showed that high systolic blood pressure remains the primary risk factor, with a standardized mortality rate of 77.73 per 100 000. However, deaths associated with low physical activity have surged by 222.54% in the past two decades. By 2036, it is predicted that the standardized incidence of stroke among women will increase by 5.26% compared to 2021, while the mortality rate among men will decrease by 16.69%, further exacerbating gender disparities.
While China has achieved progress in stroke prevention, challenges persist due to population aging and evolving risk factors. Targeted interventions addressing the rise of ischemic stroke, younger-onset cases, and gender disparities are urgently needed, alongside enhanced air pollution control, metabolic syndrome management, and regionalized tertiary prevention networks.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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