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To explore the impact of the COVID -19 pandemic and the prevention and control measures on the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen.
Based on the incidence data of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen from 2014 to 2019 (pre-pandemic) and from 2020 to 2022 (pandemic and “Class A Infectious Disease Management for Class B Infectious Diseases” period), counterfactual models were established respectively using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in 2020 to 2023 and 2023 (continuous epidemic and “Class B Infectious Disease Management” stage), followed by comparison with the actual incidence.
Compared with the predicted results, the actual incidence scale of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2020 to 2022 decreased by 45.29% to 85.71%, and the characteristics of time distribution changed. The incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease rebounded rapidly in 2023, and the annual incidence scale increased by 125.73% compared with the predicted value based on the “Class A Infectious Disease Management for Class B Infectious Diseases” period, but was lower than the predicted value based on the data before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic and prevention and control measures significantly affected the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen, reducing the incidence in the short term, but the lack of immune stimulation in the long term may lead to an increase in the incidence. It is recommended to continuously monitor the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease, and especially strengthen vaccination when prevention and control measures are relaxed to protect public health.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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