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Analysis of mortality trends and age-period-cohort effects of ischemic stroke in China, 1982-2021
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Da-jian XIA, Yun-fang XIE, Dong-mei ZHANG, Huai-chun JIANG, Xiao-li YANG
Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(4) : 590 - 596
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Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(4): 590-596
Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances
Analysis of mortality trends and age-period-cohort effects of ischemic stroke in China, 1982-2021
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Da-jian XIA, Yun-fang XIE, Dong-mei ZHANG, Huai-chun JIANG, Xiao-li YANG
Affiliations
  • Chongqing Dazu District People’s Hospital, Chongqing 402360, China
Published: 2025-02-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202408469
Outline
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Objective

To analyze the mortality trend of ischemic stroke in China from 1982 to 2021, and to explore the effects of age, period and cohort on the mortality rate, so as to provide reference for the scientific prevention and treatment of ischemic stroke.

Methods

The study data were derived from the Global Health Data Exchange Platform. Residents aged 5-94 years were used as the study subjects, and a Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of ischemic stroke deaths over time, and the age-period-cohort model was used to assess the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects on the mortality rate.

Results

The national ischemic stroke mortality rate fluctuated from 80.70/100 000 in 1982 to 64.47/100 000 in 2021, with a mean annual percentage change of -0.505%. The mortality rate of ischemic stroke for men and women fluctuated from 91.56/100 000 and 74.26/100 000 in 1982 to 88.32/100 000 and 48.58/100 000 in 2021, with an average annual percentage change of -0.054% and -0.993%, respectively; the mortality rate of ischemic stroke showed an upward trend with increasing age. With regard to the age effect, the mortality risk of ischemic stroke for male and female residents in the age group of 90-94 years increased by 6 032.91 and 4 754.90 times, respectively, compared with that of the age group of 10-14 years. For the period effect, the risk of death from ischemic stroke in 2017—2021 was 3.17 and 1.94 times higher than that in 1982—1986 for men and women, respectively. For cohort effect, the risk of ischemic stroke death for men and women born in 1892—1896 was 135.15 and 109.51 times higher than that born in 2012—2016, respectively.

Conclusion

The mortality rate of ischemic stroke in China generally showed a fluctuating and decreasing trend, in which the mortality rate of male residents was more prominent compared with that of females. The mortality risk of ischemic stroke is higher with increasing age and period.

Ischemic stroke  /  Mortality trends  /  Joinpoint regression models  /  Age-period-cohort models
Da-jian XIA, Yun-fang XIE, Dong-mei ZHANG, Huai-chun JIANG, Xiao-li YANG. Analysis of mortality trends and age-period-cohort effects of ischemic stroke in China, 1982-2021[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (4) : 590 -596 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202408469
Year 2025 volume 52 Issue 4
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Article Info
doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202408469
  • Receive Date:2024-08-31
  • Online Date:2026-03-18
  • Published:2025-02-25
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  • Received:2024-08-31
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    Chongqing Dazu District People’s Hospital, Chongqing 402360, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
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Number of
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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