To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in China from 2005 to 2018 and to predict future incidence trends, thereby providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of NMSC.

Incidence data for NMSC from 2005 to 2018 were obtained from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Reports. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) to reflect time trends. An age-period-cohort model based on the intrinsic estimator algorithm was employed to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model using integrated nested Laplace approximation was applied to predict future trends.

From 2005 to 2018, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of NMSC in China was 1.33 per 100 000, showing an upward trend, with an AAPC of 3.7% (95% CI: 2.5%-4.9%). The ASIR was higher in males (1.46/100 000) than in females (1.21/100 000), although the increase was faster in females (AAPC = 8.8%). The incidence rate in urban areas (1.44/100 000) was higher than in rural areas (1.15/100 000). The risk of NMSC incidence increased with age. The cohort effect showed a downward trend in ASIR. Predictions suggested that the ASIR of NMSC in China will continue to rise, reaching 2.52/100 000 by 2030 (95%CI: 0.22/100 000-4.83/100 000), though future trends remain uncertain.

From 2005 to 2018, the ASIR of NMSC in China showed a rising trend, with significant differences across age, sex, and regions. It is recommended to strengthen targeted prevention and health education efforts in different areas to enhance public awareness of NMSC.