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Incidence forecasting and control strategies for tuberculosis in Guiyang City based on a dynamic model
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Lin WANG1, Jun-hua WANG1, Yan HUANG2, Ke-wei YANG1, Hong CHEN2, Bin-bing ZHANG2, Min ZHANG2, Shan LIU2, Wen-yan LIANG1, Chun-liu PAN1, 2
Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(17) : 3099 - 3104
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Modern Preventive Medicine | 2025, 52(17): 3099-3104
• Epidemiology and Statistical Methods •
Incidence forecasting and control strategies for tuberculosis in Guiyang City based on a dynamic model
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Lin WANG1, Jun-hua WANG1, Yan HUANG2, Ke-wei YANG1, Hong CHEN2, Bin-bing ZHANG2, Min ZHANG2, Shan LIU2, Wen-yan LIANG1, Chun-liu PAN1, 2
Affiliations
  • School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, the key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education, Guiyang, Guizhou 561113, China
Published: 2025-09-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202503578
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Objective

To fit and predict the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Guiyang City, assess whether the End TB Strategy target for 2035 (incidence <10 per 100 000 population) can be achieved, and provide a reference for relevant departments to optimize prevention and control measures.

Methods

Based on the anonymized tuberculosis case data from Guiyang City between 2010 and 2024, after excluding records with missing onset times and duplicate entries, a transmission dynamics model was constructed by integrating demographic and epidemiological data. Taking into account the latent period of tuberculosis, infection progression, and case detection, the Bayesian method was employed to estimate transmission parameters and predict incidence trends from 2025 to 2050. The effectiveness of various control measures was evaluated through parameter optimization strategies.

Results

The model achieved a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.02%, and an R2 of 0.86 in fitting the 2010—2019 data. Projections indicated that under current strategies, Guiyang City would fail to meet the 2035 TB control target. However, with optimized interventions, the target could be achieved two years ahead of schedule.

Conclusion

Enhancing active case detection and preventive treatment for latent TB infections could enable Guiyang City to reach the End TB Strategy’s 2035 goal.

Tuberculosis  /  Guiyang City  /  Dynamic model  /  Control strategy
Lin WANG, Jun-hua WANG, Yan HUANG, Ke-wei YANG, Hong CHEN, Bin-bing ZHANG, Min ZHANG, Shan LIU, Wen-yan LIANG, Chun-liu PAN. Incidence forecasting and control strategies for tuberculosis in Guiyang City based on a dynamic model[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (17) : 3099 -3104 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202503578
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Year 2025 volume 52 Issue 17
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Article Info
doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202503578
  • Receive Date：2025-03-30
  • Online Date：2026-03-18
  • Published：2025-09-10
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  • Received：2025-03-30
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Affiliations
    School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, the key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education, Guiyang, Guizhou 561113, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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