PDF
Full
Outline
To analyze the dynamic trends in incidence and prevalence of periodontal disease in China from 1992-2021, quantify age, period, and cohort effects, and project future trends over the next two decades, thereby informing targeted prevention strategies.
Data were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. Joinpoint Regression (JPR5.0.2) was employed to assess temporal trends in periodontal disease incidence and prevalence. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling was applied to disentangle independent age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) analysis was utilized to project incidence and prevalence from 2022 to 2041.
Between 1992 and 2021, the incidence and prevalence of periodontal diseases in China exhibited an overall upward trend, with an annual increase of 0.18% in incidence and 0.30% in prevalence, and higher rates observed in males than females. The APC model revealed that net age effects were positive across all age groups, with net changes of 0.61%(95%CI: 0.43-0.80) for incidence and 0.98%(95%CI: 0.81-1.15) for prevalence, showing an initial increase followed by a decline and subsequent rise. The highest incidence occurred in the 50-54 age group, while the highest prevalence was observed in the 60-64 age group. Using 2002-2006 as the reference period (RR=1), the risk of incidence and prevalence began to rise continuously around 2007, peaking at RR=1.04 (95%CI: 0.99-1.09) and RR=1.09 (95%CI: 1.05-1.13), respectively. For the birth cohort, using 1953—1957 as the reference (RR=1), the 1998-2002 birth cohort exhibited the highest risks for both incidence (RR=1.80, 95%CI: 1.14-2.84) and prevalence (RR=1.87, 95%CI: 1.01-3.46). Predictions indicated that the incidence and prevalence of periodontal diseases in China will continue to rise over the next 20 years.
China has experienced escalating periodontal disease burden since 1992, with marked age-dependent heterogeneity. Without effective interventions, incidence and prevalence are expected to rise rapidly through 2041, highlighting the need for heightened attention to its disease burden in public health planning.
PDF
74
32
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
关闭全屏
No. 86 Xueyuan South Road, Haidian District, Beijing
010-62199257
qkjq@cast.org.cn
Copyright © 2025 China Association for Science and Technology. All rights reserved. For all open access content, the relevant licensing terms apply.
Sponsored by the Office of the Leading Group for Cybersecurity and Informatization of CAST, and supported by Science and Technology Review Publishing House
