To investigate the epidemiological trends of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) in Toli county, Xinjiang, using a transmission dynamics model, and to quantitatively assess the impact of bivalent vaccine interventions, to provide a reference for the prevention of HR-HPV infections and vaccination strategies.

A transmission dynamics model was established based on the natural history of HPV infection. Data on cervical cancer screening in Toli county were collected, and simulations were conducted under scenarios of no intervention and bivalent vaccine coverage rates of 50%, 60%, and 70%to predict the infection rates, peak infection values, and the number of cancer patients. The future trends of infections and cervical cancer patients over the next 20 years were also forecasted.

A total of 12 549 women underwent cervical cancer screening, with 1 744 cases of HR-HPV infection, resulting in a cumulative infection rate of 13.9%. In the absence of intervention, the predicted infection rate at the end of the study was 16.33%, with an estimated 1 914 infections and 294 cancer patients in a total population of 11 666. With bivalent vaccine coverage rates of 50%, 60%, and 70%, the predicted final infection rates were 15.31%, 15.07%, and 14.82%, respectively, with corresponding numbers of cervical cancer patients being 185, 164, and 142, and total populations of 11 949, 12 005, and 12 061, respectively. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that a higher clearance rate was more effective in reducing the number of infections, and a lower rate of recovered individuals becoming susceptible again led to fewer infections.

Implementing vaccination and increasing coverage rates can reduce the number of HR-HPV infections and cervical cancer patients in Toli county, which may help mitigate the decline in the total population. Emphasis should be placed on measures to improve clearance rates when preventing HR-HPV infections, as the effectiveness of further increasing clearance rates on infection control will gradually diminish.