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To analyze the current status and trends of the disease burden attributable to high fasting blood glucose related to tuberculosis in the elderly population of China from 1992 to 2021, and to conduct forecasts to provide references for the prevention and control of tuberculosis in this population.
Data on tuberculosis mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) attributable to high fasting blood glucose from 1992 to 2021 were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study database. The percentage change in estimated annual disease burden was calculated to analyze trends. Comparisons were made from a global perspective and across different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, employing the decomposition method established by Gupta to quantify changes in attributable mortality and DALY. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to analyze the risk of attributable mortality, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict standardized mortality rates and standardized DALY rates.
In 2021, the standardized mortality rate (2.03 per 100 000)and standardized DALY rate (46.95 per 100 000) for the elderly population in China were at a moderate level globally. The attributable mortality and DALY rates for males (2.81 per 100 000 and 70.97 per 100 000, respectively) were higher than those for females (1.04 per 100 000 and 24.21 per 100 000, respectively). From 1992 to 2021, both the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate for the elderly population in China showed a declining trend, with a faster decline compared to different SDI regions. The combined contributions of population growth and aging to changes in attributable mortality and DALY were 112.50% and 109.01%, respectively, while the contributions from epidemiological changes were -170.58% and-158.48%. The APC model indicated that the risk of attributable mortality initially rose with age and then declined, as well as decreased over time and across birth cohorts. The BAPC model demonstrated superior predictive performance, forecasting a declining trend in both standardized mortality rates and standardized DALY rates from 2022 to 2030.
The disease burden attributable to high fasting blood glucose related to tuberculosis in the elderly population of China from 1992 to 2021 remains significant. The burden is greater in males than in females, with population growth and aging being driving factors for the increasing burden. Age, period, and cohort all influence the attributable disease burden, necessitating the implementation of comprehensive prevention and control measures tailored to the characteristics of the Chinese population.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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