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To analyze the factors influencing overweight and obesity among middle school students and to establish a nomogram for predicting the risk of overweight and obesity in this population.
From September to November 2024, a random cluster sampling method was used to select 5 135 middle school students from 20 schools in Tongren city for physical examinations and questionnaire surveys. Lasso regression was employed to identify factors affecting overweight and obesity, and a nomogram prediction model was established and validated.
The prevalence of overweight and obesity among middle school students was 25.02%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that being female (OR=0.430, 95%CI: 0.371-0.499),boarding at school (OR=0.582, 95%CI: 0.500-0.678), engaging in moderate to high-intensity physical activity for one hour daily (OR=0.730, 95%CI: 0.630-0.847), having non-obese parents (OR=0.466, 95%CI: 0.404-0.538), and external eating triggers (OR=0.945, 95%CI: 0.935-0.956) were protective factors against overweight and obesity. Conversely, consuming fresh fruits and vegetables at every meal (OR=1.308, 95%CI: 1.103-1.549), restrictive eating (OR=1.100, 95%CI: 1.089-1.111), and emotional eating (OR=1.091, 95%CI: 1.079-1.103) were identified as risk factors. The areas under the curve (AUC) for the training and validation sets were 0.790 (95%CI: 0.775-0.806) and 0.765 (95%CI: 0.731-0.799), respectively, indicating good discrimination of the nomogram prediction model. The Brier score was 0.15, and the Hosmer-Leeshawn test suggested good model fit (χ2=10.984, P=0.203).
The nomogram model established in this study effectively predicts the risk of overweight and obesity, providing a reference for screening high-risk students and implementing personalized prevention strategies.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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