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To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2005 to 2023 and to predict the incidence trend from 2024 to 2026, thereby providing scientific basis for the prevention and control of Hepatitis B.
Data on HBV incidence were extracted from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System for descriptive analysis, and the gray prediction model was employed to forecast the incidence trends.Visualization of the data was performed using Origin 2022 software.
From 2005 to 2023, a total of 724 286 cases of HBV were reported in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, with an average annual incidence rate of 172.97 per 100 000 population. Cases were reported across various prefectures and cities, with the highest cumulative incidence observed in Kashgari Prefecture (171 395 cases), Urumqi city (132 256 cases), and Aksu Prefecture (90 145 cases). Among the reported cases, males (401 266 cases) outnumbered females (323 020 cases), with the primary affected demographic being individuals aged 20-39 years. The GM (1,1) model predicted a declining incidence trend for Hepatitis B in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2024 to 2026, with projected rates of 104.809, 97.406, and 90.065 per 100 000 population, respectively.
The overall incidence level of Hepatitis B in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is relatively high; however, a downward trend in incidence is anticipated from 2024 to 2026.It is recommended to enhance the promotion of Hepatitis B vaccination, strengthen prevention and control efforts in key populations and areas, and improve public awareness of Hepatitis B to achieve the goal of eliminating its prevalence.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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