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To understand the prevalence and influencing factors of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) among middle-aged and elderly residents in the community, and to construct and validate a Nomogram prediction model to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention of COPD onset and deterioration.
This cross-sectional study involved 3 250 middle-aged and elderly community residents in Chengdu Eastern New District. Basic information and risk factors for COPD were collected through pulmonary function tests, physical examinations, and questionnaires. The study population was divided into training and validation sets. Elastic net analysis was performed in the training set to select coefficients, and LASSO regression and random forest models were utilized to analyze the influencing factors of COPD and severe COPD, leading to the establishment of a Nomogram prediction model.
The detection rates of COPD and severe COPD among community residents in Chengdu were 26% and 5.38%, respectively. LASSO regression indicated that age, male, being unmarried, low income, childhood pneumonia hospitalization, childhood cough, and parental respiratory disease history were common risk factors for COPD and severe COPD. Unique risk factors for COPD included low BMI, occupation, dust exposure, allergy history, workplace smoking, family smoking, and personal smoking.Unique risk factors for severe COPD included low educational level, waist-to-hip ratio, and maternal smoking during pregnancy. A Nomogram risk prediction model for COPD and severe COPD was established based on these indicators, with AUC values of 69.34%(95%CI: 66.90%-71.79%) and 76.81% (95%CI: 72.71%-80.90%), respectively, demonstrating good predictive performance. Internal validation through 1 000 bootstrap resampling showed that the calibration curves of the Nomogram model closely matched the actual occurrence of COPD and severe COPD, indicating a good fit.
Gender, age, educational level, marital status, family income, waist-to-hip ratio, childhood pneumonia hospitalization history, childhood cough, maternal smoking, paternal respiratory disease history, and maternal respiratory disease history are independent risk factors for COPD and severe COPD among community residents in Chengdu. The constructed Nomogram prediction model can provide a concise and intuitive personalized risk assessment for COPD and severe COPD for community residents and high-risk populations.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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