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To describe and analyze the disease burden of dengue fever in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.
Using the open data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990 to 2021, this study analyzed the trend of dengue disease burden. The Joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the change trend of dengue burden, and the ARIMA time series model was used to predict the dengue disease burden in China in the next ten years.
The incidence and prevalence of dengue fever in China increased from 0.37/100 000 and 0.02/100 000 in 1990 to 1.88/100 000 and 0.11/100 000 in 2021, and the DALYs rate decreased from 0.30/100 000 in 1990 to 0.04/100 000 in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence of dengue fever in China increased from 0.38/100 000 and 0.02/100 000 to 2.01/100 000 and 0.12/100 000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased from 0.32/100 000 to 0.05/100 000. The Joinpoint regression model showed that, the age-standardized incidence rate (AAPC=5.59%, P<0.05) and age-standardized prevalence rate (AAPC=5.57%, P<0.05) of dengue fever in China from 1990 to 2021 showed an increasing trend, while the age-standardized DALYs rate (AAPC=-5.84%, P<0.05) showed a decreasing trend. The ARIMA forecast model showed a small decline in the burden of dengue in China from 2022 to 2031.
In China, the incidence and prevalence of dengue fever and its age-standardized rate showed an increasing trend, while the DALYs rate and age-standardized DALYs rate showed a decreasing trend. The burden of dengue fever in China is still relatively heavy, so preliminary screening and health education of dengue fever should be strengthened, and corresponding preventive measures should be formulated according to the characteristics of dengue disease burden.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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