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To evaluate the current status and development trends of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) in China, providing decision support for policy adjustments by government and health departments.
Data extraction from the 2024 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database was conducted for indicators related to the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of IBD in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the Annual Percent Change (APC) and the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). Additionally, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) was employed to forecast disease characteristics from 2022 to 2031.
From 1990 to 2021, the number of prevalent cases, incident cases, and deaths from IBD in China, as well as the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed an upward trend. By 2021, these figures stood at 168077 prevalent cases, 24 941 new cases, and 5 640 deaths, with ASPR and ASIR reaching 9.16 per 100 000 people and 1.4 per 100 000 people, respectively, representing a significant increase compared to 1990 levels. Meanwhile, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) exhibited a downward trend, standing at 0.33 per 100 000 people and 7.68 per 100 000 person-years in 2021, with notable differences observed across age groups and genders. The ARIMA model predicted that by 2031, the ASPR, ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR would decrease compared to 2021 levels, projecting figures of 5.23 per 100 000 people, 1.20 per 100 000 people, 0.21 per 100 000 people, and 5.41 per 100 000 person-years, respectively.
Currently, the incidence and prevalence of IBD in China are on the rise. Although this trend may change over the next decade, given China’s large population base and demographic structure, it is essential to strengthen primary and secondary prevention efforts among key populations, particularly males and the elderly.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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