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To provide a scientific basis for the formulation of effective prevention and control strategies by assessing the risk of dengue fever importation and local transmission in Guangxi from ASEAN countries by 2025.
Relevant information was collected and organized. The risk of dengue case importation from ASEAN countries was calculated using the Poisson distribution. Based on previous studies on local transmission risk assessment indicators for dengue fever, various factors influencing local transmission were assigned values. The local transmission risk was analyzed and evaluated through quantitative indicators, and the severity of local transmission consequences was qualitatively assessed using an expert consultation method.
There were significant regional differences in the risk of dengue cases being imported from ASEAN countries across the 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi from January to December. Nanning and Guilin had a year-round risk of “high” or “very high” for external importation;five cities, including Qinzhou, had “medium” or “high” risk; five cities, including Liuzhou, had “low” or “medium” risk; and Hezhou and Laibin had “very low” or “low” risk. If cases were imported, the risk of local transmission in the 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi was assessed as “low” for January to March and December; in April, all cities except Baise were “low”, while others were“medium”; from May to October, the risk was “medium”; in November, four cities including Liuzhou were “low”, while the others were “medium”. Based on comprehensive expert consultations, the risk of dengue importation and local transmission in Guangxi’s 14 prefecture-level cities was assessed as “medium” for 2025.
Due to its geographical location and close exchanges with ASEAN countries, Guangxi faces a higher risk of dengue fever importation and local transmission. The 14 prefecture-level cities should develop dengue prevention and control measures based on the characteristics of dengue importation and the dynamic changes in monitoring indicators, tailored to local conditions and timing, to effectively manage dengue outbreaks.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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