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To construct a stroke risk scoring tool for middle - aged and elderly Chinese people based on meta-analysis and physical examination data from primary medical institutions.
Cohort studies on risk factors for stroke onset in the Chinese population were retrieved, and predictive factors were determined through meta-analysis. Referring to the construction method of the Framingham 10-year risk scoring tool, a stroke risk scoring tool for middle-aged and elderly Chinese people was established. The Kailuan cohort and the Hongguang physical examination cohort were used as external validation populations. Indicators such as the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the scoring tool.
Thirty-eight studies were included in the meta-analysis, and finally 14 factors were identified as stroke predictive factors: old age, male gender, underweight, overweight, obesity, stage 1 hypertension, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, high total cholesterol, high triglycerides, low-level high-density lipoprotein, history of atrial fibrillation, family history of stroke, and current smoking. The Kailuan cohort included 137 501 people, and 2 351 cases of stroke occurred during the follow-up period. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.74 (95%CI:0.73-0.75), the sensitivity was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.77-0.80), and the specificity was 0.59 (95%CI: 0.58-0.59). The Hongguang physical examination cohort included 7 194 subjects, and 927 people had strokes during the follow-up period. The AUC was 0.61 (95%CI: 0.59-0.63), and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.52 (95%CI: 0.50-0.56) and 0.65 (95%CI: 0.64-0.66),respectively.
The stroke risk scoring tool has good predictive efficacy in middle-aged and elderly people undergoing physical examinations. It has high feasibility for popularization and application in primary medical institutions, can help identify high-risk populations for stroke, and provide a basis for stroke prevention and intervention strategies.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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